BLS Analysis for December 2010

Bob Marshall’s BLS Analysis; 1/7/11

The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor.  The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On January 7, 2011, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for December, 2010 of 9.4% (actually it is 9.425%; down .345% from 9.770% (revised) in November, 2010).  This was determined by dividing the unemployed of 14,485,000 (down from the month before by 556,000—since December, 2009 (one year ago), this number has decreased by 727,000—by the total civilian labor force of 153,690,000 (down by 260,000 from November 2010).  Since December 2009, our total civilian labor force has increased by 518,000 people.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, farmers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in December was fixed at 4.6% (in the last year, this rate has fluctuated between 4.4% and 5.1%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in December was fixed at 4.8% (in the last year, this rate has also fluctuated between 4.4% and 5.1%).  For over a year now, these trends have remained very close to one-half of one percent.

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, just let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  This theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  So, if applied to our main category of management, professional and related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of college-degreed potential recruits, we have no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  That’s why we have to recruit these folks.

One last point I need to make.  I am not saying that we are living in the halcyon days of our careers in recruitment.  If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the December “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you find the following rates:

December 2009           4.6%

December 2008           3.3%

December 2007           2.0%

December 2006           1.7%

December 2005           2.0%

December 2004           2.5%

December 2003           2.8%

December 2002           2.8%

So, while December 2010’s rate of 4.6% is not huge, it’s not anything to gloat about as well, especially when we see how good we had it during the past few years.  Regardless, we still need to market to find the best job orders and recruit to find the best candidates.

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

10.9%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

12.0%

12.6%

13.3%

14.8%

15.5%

15.5%

15.4%

15.6%

15.0%

15.5%

15.0%

15.3%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

15.2%

15.6%

14.5%

14.7%

15.0%

14.1%

13.8%

14.0%

15.4%

15.3%

15.7%

15.3%

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

7.7%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

8.1%

8.3%

9.0%

9.3%

10.0%

9.8%

9.4%

9.7%

10.8%

11.2%

10.4%

10.5%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

10.1%

10.5%

10.8%

10.6%

10.9%

10.8%

10.1%

10.3%

10.0%

10.1%

10.0%

9.8%

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

5.6%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

6.2%

7.0%

7.2%

7.4%

7.7%

8.0%

7.9%

8.2%

8.5%

9.0%

9.0%

9.0%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

8.5%

8.0%

8.2%

8.3%

8.3%

8.2%

8.3%

8.7%

9.1%

8.5%

8.7%

8.1%

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

3.7%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

3.8%

4.1%

4.3%

4.4%

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

4.9%

4.7%

4.9%

5.0%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

4.9%

5.0%

4.9%

4.9%

4.7%

4.4%

4.5%

4.6%

4.4%

4.7%

5.1%

4.8%

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

3.3%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

4.1%

3.9%

4.2%

4.0%

4.6%

5.0%

5.5%

5.4%

5.2%

4.7%

4.6%

4.6%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

5.0%

4.8%

4.7%

4.5%

4.5%

4.9%

5.0%

5.1%

4.4%

4.5%

4.7%

4.6%

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

12/08

52,548

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

52,358

52,196

52,345

52,597

52,256

51,776

51,810

51,724

52,186

52,981

52,263

52,131

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

52,159

52,324

52,163

52,355

51,839

51,414

50,974

50,879

51,757

51,818

52,263

51,704

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

12/08

1,802

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

2,238

2,137

2,292

2,164

2,373

2,720

3,034

2,925

2,859

2,593

2,530

2,509

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

2,762

2,637

2,600

2,464

2,450

2,644

2,687

2,762

2,381

2,417

2,525

2,468

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

12/08

54,350

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

54,596

54,333

54,637

54,761

54,629

54,496

54,844

54,649

55,045

55,574

54,793

54,640

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

54,921

54,961

54,763

54,819

54,289

54,058

53,661

53,641

54,138

54,235

54,788

54,172

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

3.9%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

4.6%

4.5%

4.5%

4.4%

4.6%

4.8%

4.9%

5.0%

5.2%

5.4%

5.4%

5.2%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

5.2%

5.1%

5.4%

5.1%

4.9%

4.8%

4.7%

4.9%

4.3%

5.0%

5.5%

5.7%

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

2.9%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

3.7%

3.5%

3.9%

3.6%

4.2%

5.1%

6.0%

5.6%

5.2%

4.2%

4.1%

4.2%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

4.9%

4.6%

4.3%

4.1%

4.3%

5.0%

5.2%

5.3%

4.4%

4.1%

4.1%

3.8%

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

12/08

7.0%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

7.7%

8.4%

8.9%

8.6%

8.9%

9.1%

8.3%

8.7%

8.9%

9.5%

9.1%

8.9%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

10.1%

10.2%

9.7%

9.2%

9.6%

9.4%

10.1%

9.0%

9.4%

9.1%

8.8%

8.3%