BLS Analysis for February 2018

Bob Marshall’s February 2018 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 3/9/18

 

February BLS Preface

 

TBMG Coaching Updates and News

 

Bob Marshall – Coaching & Speaking Updates:

 

Mike Gionta’s 9th Annual Recruiting Firm Owner Telesummit, March 13th – 16th, 2018

 

Again, this year, I have been invited to present at Mike’s annual event.  This 4-day virtual event is officially called “TheRecrukiterU’s Search Firm Owner’s Strategy Summit”.

 

There will be 13 sessions (Peter Lefkowitz was just added yesterday) offered at no charge.  Yep, it’s free to access the live calls.  You can grab your spot by going to:

 

https://ysh91858.isrefer.com/go/rfos18/bmars/

 

This is a FREE event for live listening with the attendees able to upgrade for a nominal fee to get the recordings.  The topics are all owner-based so the telesummit is geared to Owners and Managers and Solo/Independent Recruiters of Recruiting Firms.  Last year we had over 2,200 people register and averaged over 500 live on each of our presentations!

 

On Friday, March 16th, at 2:15pm, I will conduct a 45-minute session entitled, “Words Matter, Messages That Work, – Voicemails and Emails.”

 

California Staffing Professionals (CSP) Annual Conference, Westin Mission Hills, Rancho Mirage, California, June 7th-9th, 2018

 

Also, again this year, I will be presenting to the CSP Annual Conference that will be held from Thursday, June 7th, 2018 and Saturday, June 9th, 2018, this time in Rancho Mirage, CA.  On Friday morning, from 10:30am to noon, I will conduct a 90-minute session entitled, “Words Matter, Messages That Work, – Voicemails and Emails.”

Then on Friday afternoon, from 2:30pm to 4pm, I will conduct a second 90-minute session entitled, “Establishing Elegant Rapport through Elegant Communication.”

 

* Special San Diego area Note:  For those of you in the San Diego area, if you are interested in my in-office training (individual and desk-level) and are available for that training during June 11-June 15, please let me know for a special offer.  Since I will be in the San Diego area for my CSP presentations, I will offer a discount on my usual fees plus NO charge for my airfare or other expenses.  First come, first served, so contact me for specific details as soon as possible.  Thanks!

 

“Look for excellence, not perfection.  Everyone has flaws; the key is how they deal with them.”

 

WHY A COACH?

 

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

 

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988,

 

“A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear,

who has you see what you don’t want to see,

so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

 

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

 

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

 

So for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

 

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb, “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

 

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

 

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January, 2017

 

If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org.  Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

Preface

 

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

 

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

 

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

 

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 

3 CA Counties Top List of Highest Average Weekly Wage in Q3, followed by NY

Daily News, March 8. 2018

 

Santa Clara County in California’s Silicon Valley posted the highest average weekly wage among all large US counties in the 3rd quarter at $2,320, according to data released today by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.  It was followed by San Mateo County and San Francisco — all located in the San Francisco Bay Area.  New York ranked 4th.

 

The 10 US counties with the highest average weekly wage in the 3rd quarter:

 

  1. Santa Clara, CA: $2,320
  2. San Mateo, CA:  $2,123
  3. San Francisco, CA:  $1,954
  4. New York, NY:  $1,889
  5. Washington, DC:  $1,759
  6. Suffolk, MA:  $1,691
  7. Arlington, VA:  $1,642
  8. King, WA:  $1,626
  9. Fairfax, VA:  $1,540
  10. Middlesex, MA:  $1,498

 

 

Beige Book Cites Worker Shortages, Increasing Wage Growth

Daily News, March 8, 2018

 

Shortages of workers — particularly in construction, IT and manufacturing — and increasing wage growth was cited in the latest Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve.

 

“Across the country, contacts observed persistent labor market tightness and brisk demand for qualified workers, as well as increased activity at staffing placement services,” according to the report.

 

Wage growth picked up to a moderate pace, according to the report.  And most Districts saw employers raise wages and expand benefit packages in response to tight labor market conditions.

 

One Boston staffing firm reported year-over-year declines in revenue because of difficulty finding workers to fill jobs.

 

Overall, economic activity expanded at a “modest to moderate pace” across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts in January and February, according to the report.  Employment grew at a “moderate pace”

 

 

Revised 4th Quarter US GDP up 2.5%, matching expectations

CNBC, February 28, 2018

 

U.S. economic growth slowed slightly more than initially thought in the 4th quarter as the strongest pace of consumer spending in 3 years drew in imports and depleted inventories.

 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at a 2.5 % annual rate in the final 3 months of 2017, instead of the previously reported 2.6% pace, the Commerce Department said in its 2nd GDP estimate on Wednesday.  That was a deceleration from the 3rd quarter’s brisk 3.2% pace.

 

The downward revision to the 4th quarter GDP growth estimate largely reflected a smaller inventory build than previously reported.  It was in line with economists’ expectations.

 

The economy appears to have lost further momentum at the start of the year, with recent data showing retail sales, home sales, durable goods orders and industrial production declining in January.  In addition, the goods trade deficit widened last month as exports fell.

 

First-quarter growth tends to be weak because of a seasonal quirk but is likely to accelerate for the rest of 2018 as the stimulus from a $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased government spending kicks in.  GDP growth estimates for the first 3 months of the year are as low as a 1.8% rate.

 

Economists believe the economy will hit the Trump administration’s 3% annual growth target this year, possibly putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates a bit more aggressively than currently anticipated.

 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell struck an upbeat note on the economy before lawmakers on Tuesday saying, “my personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December.”  That prompted traders to raise their bets on 4 rate increases this year.

 

The Fed has forecast 3 rate hikes and financial markets expect the first increase in March.

 

The economy grew 2.3% in 2017, an acceleration from the 1.5% logged in 2016.  A measure of domestic demand expanded at its quickest since the 3rd quarter of 2014, highlighting the economy’s strength.

 

Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was unrevised at a 3.8% rate in the 4th quarter.  That was the quickest pace since the fourth quarter of 2014 and followed a 2.2% rate of growth in the July-September period.

 

Imports Surge

 

But companies failed to produce enough to meet the burst in consumer spending, resulting in a surge in imports that subtracted from GDP growth.  Imports grew at an upwardly revised 14% pace instead of the previously reported 13.9% rate.  That was the fastest pace since the 3rd quarter of 2010 and offset a rise in exports that is being driven by weakness in the dollar.

 

The resulting trade deficit sliced off 1.13% points from GDP growth last quarter, the most in a year, after adding 0.36% point in the third quarter.

 

Robust consumer spending also curbed the accumulation of inventories. Inventories increased at a rate of $8.0 billion, instead of the previously reported $9.2 billion pace.  As a result, inventories subtracted 0.70 % point from GDP growth after adding 0.79 % point in the prior period.

 

Growth in business spending on equipment was revised up to an 11.8% rate from the 11.4% pace published last month.  That was the quickest pace since the 3rd quarter of 2014.

 

The momentum, however, appears to be slowing, with a report on Tuesday showing a 2nd straight monthly decline in core capital goods orders in January.

 

Investment in home building increased at a 13.0% rate, rather than the previously reported 11.6% pace, after contracting for 2 straight quarters.  Government spending grew at a 2.9% rate, revised down from a 3.0% pace.  That was the fastest pace since the 2nd quarter of 2015.

 

 

Employers See Skill Gaps in Key Areas Where College Students Don’t:  NACE Survey

Daily News, February 26, 2018

 

Students entering the job market and potential employers have very different perceptions about the “career readiness” of new college graduates, according to a survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers.

 

Using 8 competencies that NACE identified as constituting “career readiness,” the survey asked employers and graduating seniors to indicate how proficient new graduates were in each.  For the most part, employers were less likely to view new college graduates as proficient in these competencies than were the students themselves.  This discrepancy can be problematic because it suggests that employers see skills gaps in key areas where college students don’t believe gaps exist, according to NACE.

 

In particular, the 2 groups’ opinions differed greatly when it came to new graduate proficiency in professionalism/work ethic, oral/written communications, and leadership.  The biggest gap was in the professionalism competency:  Nearly 90% of seniors reported they believe they are proficient, but less than half of employers agreed with that assessment.

 

The greatest agreement between the 2 groups was around new graduates’ ability to work in teams.  More than 75% of employers said new graduates were proficient, compared to 85% of the students.

 

Only in terms of the technology-related competency were employers more likely than their student counterparts to view new graduates as proficient.  Nearly 66% of employers rated new graduates as proficient in digital technology — the ability to leverage technologies to solve problems, complete tasks, and accomplish goals — compared to just under 60% of graduating seniors.

 

Results came from the Job Outlook 2018, which surveyed 201 employers who were members of NACE, and The Class of 2017 Student Survey Report, which included 4,213 graduating seniors.

 

 

US Leading Index Points to ‘Robust’ Growth in First Half of Year

Daily News, February 22, 2018

 

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index rose 1.0% in January to a reading of 108.1 (2016 = 100), following increases of 0.6% in December and 0.4% in November.

 

The US Leading Economic Index accelerated further in January and continues to point to robust economic growth in the first half of 2018, according to Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board.

 

“While the recent stock market volatility will not be reflected in the US LEI until next month, consumers’ and business’ outlook on the economy had been improving for several months and should not be greatly impacted,” Ozyildirim said.  “The leading indicators reflect an economy with widespread strengths coming from financial conditions, manufacturing, residential construction and labor markets.”

 

 

Downskilling:  Employers can no longer have their cake and eat it too

The Conference Blog (excerpt) by Gad Levanon & Frank Steemers, February 16, 2018

 

No longer is the US labor market an employer’s market.  For years after the Great Recession, firms had access to applicants with quality and educational credentials exceeding hiring managers’ wildest dreams.  Since then though the US labor market has experienced one of the largest turnarounds in recorded history.  During and after the Great Recession, the unemployment rate sharply climbed to 10% in late 2009 and remained above 9% through 2011—representing one of the weakest labor market episodes performances ever.  Since then the unemployment rate has gradually dropped to 4.1% in January 2018, an unusually low rate.   Employers have thus moved from a prolonged period of unusual ease in hiring, into one where they are faced with gradually growing difficulties to recruit.  According to several employers’ surveys of recruitment difficulty, it is now more difficult to hire qualified workers than it was in 2007, the last pre-recession year, in which the U.S. labor market was quite tight.

 

Even more extreme is the rise in vacancy duration, or “time to fill” positions.  According to DHI hiring indicators, in 2014, vacancy duration already surpassed 2007 rates, and in late 2017, it takes an average of 25% more days to fill a vacancy now compared with 2007.  That is somewhat surprising, because it is hard to argue that the US labor market is much tighter, if at all, than in 2007.  One potential explanation for the unusual recruiting difficulties, beyond the tight labor market, has to do with job opening requirements:  During the years of weak labor markets following the Great Recession, employers took advantage of market conditions and “up-skilled” the positions (raised the educational and experience qualifications for job openings).  Employers got used to these higher qualifications and were somewhat reluctant to down-skill as the labor market got tighter.  That has led to extended vacancy duration which will eventually result in reducing hiring standards back to previous levels.

 

Is there supporting evidence for this explanation of slow-to-fill job vacancies?  Several studies using job vacancy online postings show that labor market conditions do have an impact on desired qualifications in job openings.  We also hear from our member companies’ anecdotal stories that are in-line with the earlier up-skilling and current down-skilling.

 

 

CIO/CTO tops List of Highest Tech Salaries in 2018

Daily News, February 15, 2018

 

Chief information officers and chief technical officers top this year’s list of highest-paid technology professionals, according to the annual technology salary guide released by Mondo, a New York-based IT and digital marketing staffing provider.

 

CIO and CTO salaries range from $160,000 to $292,500 this year, according to the report.  Chief information security officer ranked second, while salaries for the DevOps lead engineer position jumped to a high of $250,000, making it the third highest-paid position among technology professionals.

 

Technology jobs with the highest salaries in 2018 include:

 

*CTO/CIO: $160,000 to $292,500

*Chief information security officer: $162,000 to $275,000

*DevOps lead/engineer: $115,000 to $250,000

*Demandware developer: $127,500 to $237,500

*Data architect: $130,000 to $210,000

*Data scientist: $130,000 to $210,000

*Database architect: $145,000 to $200,000

*Project manager: $77,500 to $200,000

 

“Salaries for technology professionals continue to increase with more than 8 different positions now earning more than $200,000 a year,” said Gianna Scorsone, senior VP of marketing and sales operations for Mondo.

 

“This year, in particular, we have seen a spike in salaries for DevOps engineers and eCommerce developers,” Scorsone said.  “Tech professionals with Virtual Reality, IoT, and artificial intelligence expertise can expect to see salary jumps for corresponding titles as demand rises for these skills in 2018.”

 

The technology salary data is based on Mondo’s placements over the past year in New York City, San Francisco, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Denver, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta and Dallas.

 

 

Express Employment finds 41% of Businesses expect Wage Increases this Quarter

Daily News, February 14, 2018

 

The wage outlook for the first quarter of 2018 is encouraging, according to a survey released today by Express Employment Professionals.

 

The survey found 41% of businesses surveyed said they expect wages at their company to increase in the first 3 months of first quarter, up from only 34% in a previous survey on the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2017.  58% expect wages to stay the same, up from 65% in the prior quarter’s outlook, and those saying wages would decrease was unchanged at 1%.

 

“When 99% of companies expect steady or rising wages, it’s welcome news.  And when a growing number of businesses plan to increase wages, it’s very good news,” Express CEO Bob Funk said.  “Despite the many signs of economic health, many families feel their wages have risen too slowly over the last few years.  But the tight labor market, economic confidence and lower taxes may finally lift wages for more workers.”

 

Express Employment conducted the survey in December 2017, the same month tax reform became law.  It included 462 businesses, which are current and former clients of Express Employment Professionals.

 

 

US Economic Growth Strengthens, Philadelphia Fed Forecast Gets Upward Revisions

Daily News, February 12, 2018

 

The US economy’s growth outlook is stronger now than 3 months ago, according to the first-quarter edition of the Survey of Professional Forecasters released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

 

The forecasters now predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.0% this quarter, up from the previous estimate of 2.4%.  The predictions for quarterly growth over the following 3 quarters also improved.

 

For the full year 2018, forecasters now expect GDP to increase by 2.8%, up from an earlier forecast of 2.5%.

 

An improved outlook for the labor market accompanies the outlook for stronger output growth.  The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will be 4.0% in the first and second quarters, before falling to 3.9% and 3.8% in the third and fourth quarters of 2018 respectively.  The projections for full-years 2018, 2019, and 2020 are also below those of the last survey.

 

The forecasters also raised their estimate for job growth in 2018.  They now estimate the US will add 175,100 jobs per month in 2018, up from the previous forecast of 163,400 jobs per month.

 

 

Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed tracker shows

Jeff Cox, CNBC, February 1, 2018

 

*The Atlanta Fed updated its rolling look at the U.S. economy, projecting that GDP would grow 5.4% in the 1st quarter;

*If the forecast holds, it would be the strongest quarter since the economic recovery began and would more than double the typical annualized growth during the period.

 

The economy is on track to put up blockbuster growth numbers in the 1st quarter, according to the latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed.

 

GDP is expected to surge 5.4% to start 2018, the central bank branch estimated in its latest rolling look at how the economy is progressing.

 

If the forecast holds, it would be the best quarter since the Great Recession ended in 2009.  The previous highest was 3rd quarter of 2014, which hit 5.2%.

 

However, the Atlanta Fed’s tracker has shown to have reliability issues in the past.  In particular, the model’s sensitivity to the ISM manufacturing index has led the gauge astray multiple times, causing growth to be overstated.

 

The ISM numbers were the principle impetus for the raise in growth projections Thursday.

 

Real consumer spending jumped from 3.1% to 4% amid a sharp savings drawdown, and private fixed-investment growth surged from 5.2% to 9.2%.

 

Since 2015, ISM boosts have caused the Atlanta Fed to overstate growth by 0.8% on average, including 1.9% in the 4th-quarter tracking on Nov. 1, according to CNBC calculations.

 

That comes as jobless claims hover around generational lows and the unemployment rate is at 4.1%.  Productivity, however, continues to be lackluster, falling 0.1% in the 4th quarter against an expected rise of 1%.

 

GDP for the 4th quarter came in at 2.6%, a disappointment caused primarily by a decline in inventories and a surge in imports, temporary setbacks expected to reverse in the quarters ahead.

 

President Donald Trump rode to office on promises that growth would hit at least 3% and run as high as 6%.

 

The Atlanta Fed also was optimistic about the 2017 first quarter, estimating growth at one point to be 3.4%, where the final reading came in at 1.2%.

 

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report:  Over 70% of all new job growth in February 2018 came from Small and Medium-size Companies!

March 7, 2018

 

Private sector employment increased by 235,000 jobs from January to February (a 9,000 job decrease from January’s ‘revised’ 244,000*), according to the January ADP National Employment Report®.  *The January total of jobs added was revised up from 234,000 to 244,000.

 

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses:        68,000

1-19 employees            27,000

20-49 employees          41,000

 

Medium businesses:   97,000

50-499 employees        97,000

 

Large businesses:      70,000

500-999 employees      11,000

1,000+ employees        58,000

 

By Sector

 

  1. Goods-producing:                                37,000

 

  1. Natural resources/mining                     2,000
  2. Construction                                      21,000
  3. Manufacturing                                      14,000

 

  1. Service-providing:     198,000

 

  1. Trade/transportation/utilities              44,000
  2. Information            <-1,000>
  3. Financial activities                9,000
  4. Professional/business services   46,000
  5. Professional/technical services                              22,000
  6. Management of companies/enterprises                     2,000
  7. Administrative/support services                            22,000
  8. Education/health services                            43,000
  9. Health care/social assistance                                  38,000
  10. Education                                                                  5,000
  11. Leisure/hospitality                                       50,000
  12. Other services                                                 7,000

 

Franchise Employment

 

Franchise Jobs                        24,700

 

“The labor market continues to experience uninterrupted growth,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “We see persistent gains across most industries with leisure and hospitality and retail leading the way as consumer spending kicked up.  At this pace of job growth, employers will soon become hard-pressed to find qualified workers.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is red hot and threatens to overheat.  With government spending increases and tax cuts, growth is set to accelerate.”

 

(The March 2018 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on April 4, 2018.)

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

February 2018 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             68,000 (an 10,000 increase)

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees 27,000
►20-49 employees 41,000
   
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 12,000
►Service Producing 56,000
   
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing 6,000
►Service Producing 21,000
   
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 6,000
►Service Producing 35,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey – December 2017

February 6, 2018

 

On February 6th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings was little changed at 5,800,000 on the last business day of December.  Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5,500,000 and 5,200,000, respectively.  Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.2% and 1.1%, respectively.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by

industry and by 4geographic regions. Job Openings On the last business day of December, there were 5,800,000 job openings, little changed from November.  The job openings rate was 3.8% in December.  The number of job openings was little changed for total private and for government.  Job openings increased in information (+33,000) and federal government (+13,000).  Job openings decreased in a number of industries with the largest decreases occurring in professional and business services (-119,000), retail trade (-85,000), and construction (-52,000).  The number of job openings was little changed in all 4 regions. Hires The number of hires was little changed at 5,500,000 in December.  The hires rate was 3.7%.  The number of hires was little changed for total private, for government, and in all industries and regions. Separations Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm. The number of total separations was little changed at 5,200,000 in December.  The total separations rate was 3.6%.  The number of total separations was little changed for total private and for government.  Total separations increased in state and local government education (+17,000).  The number of total separations increased in the Midwest region. The number of quits was little changed at 3,300,000 in December.  The quits rate was 2.2%.  The number of quits was little changed for total private and for government.  Quits decreased in federal government (-4,000).  The number of quits increased in the Midwest region. There were 1,600,000 layoffs and discharges in December, little changed from November.  The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1% in December.  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private and for government.  Layoffs and discharges increased in state and local government education (+15,000).  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in all 4 regions. The number of other separations was little changed in December at 334,000.  The number of other separations was little changed for total private and edged down for government.  Other separations decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-11,000).  The number of other separations was little changed in all 4 regions.  Net Change in Employment Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle.  Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.  When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.  Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in December, hires totaled 64,700,000 and separations totaled 62,600,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,200,000.  These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year. ________________________ The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for January 2018 are scheduled to be released on Friday, March 16, 2018 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).

 

 

As we recruiters know, that 5,800,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 5,800,000 published job openings now become a total of 29,000,000 published AND hidden job orders.

 

In February there were 6,706,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 6,706,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

 

Online Job Ads Decreased 185,700 in February 2018

March 7, 2018

 

*February 2018 shows large drop following a flat January

*Loss widespread across most States and MSAs

 

Online advertised vacancies decreased 185,700 to 4,717,600 in February, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released today.  The January Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.36 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 1,800,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.  The number of unemployed was approximately 6,700,000 in January.

 

The Professional occupational category saw changes in Healthcare practitioners and technical (-88.5) and Computer and mathematical science (14.9). The Services/Production occupational category saw losses in Sales (-27.6), Transportation

(-24.1), and Office and admin (-20.6).

 

NOTE:  Recently, the HWOL Data Series has experienced a declining trend in the number of online job ads that may not reflect broader trends in the U.S. labor market.  Based on changes in how job postings appear online, The Conference Board is reviewing its HWOL methodology to ensure accuracy and alignment with market trends.

 

OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

 

*In February 3 of the largest 10 online occupational categories posted increases and seven declined.

 

Healthcare practitioners and technical ads decreased 88,500 to 518,200.  The supply/demand rate lies at 0.20, i.e. 5 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Computer and mathematical ads increased 14,900 to 539,400.  The supply/demand rate lies at 0.27, i.e. 4 advertised openings per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Sales and related ads decreased 27,600 to 449,300.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.52, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

 

Transportation ads decreased 24,100 to 368,600.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.47, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

 

Office and administrative support ads decreased 20,600 to 484,300.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.32, i.e. 1 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

 

(The March 2018 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, April 4, 2018)

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In February 2018 the regular unemployment rate again remained at 4.1% and the broader U-6 measure also again remained at 8.2%.

 

The above 8.2% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

 

Here is a look at the February U-6 numbers for the past 15 years:

 

February 2017             9.2%

February 2016             9.8%

February 2015             11.0%

February 2014             12.6%

February 2013             14.3%

February 2012             15.0%

February 2011             15.9%

February 2010             16.8%

February 2009             15.0%

February 2008             9.0%

February 2007             8.1%

February 2006             8.4%

February 2005             9.3%

February 2004             9.7%

February 2003             10.1%

 

 

The February 2018 BLS Analysis

 

According to the February 2018 Employment Situation Summary, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor, the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 313,000 in February – a increase of 74,000 from last month’s ‘revised’ 239,000—up from the originally reported, 200,000.

 

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On March 9th, 2018, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for February 2018 of 4.1% (actually it is 4.142%, down by .007% from 4.149% in January 2018).  This is very close to last month’s number—the lowest unemployment rate in about 17 years!

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 6,706,000 (–up from the month before by 22,000—since February 2017 this number has decreased by 780,000) by the total civilian labor force of 161,921,000 (up by 806,000 from January 2018).  Since February 2017, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,924,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total to 256,934,000.  This is an increase of 154,000 from last month’s increase of 671,000.  In one year’s time, this population has increased by 2,688,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016—by…)

 

Up from January 2018 by 154,000
Up from December 2017 by 671,000
Up from November 2017 by 160,000
Up from October 2017 by 183,000
Up from September 2017 by 204,000
Up from August 2017 by 205,000
Up from July 2017 by 206,000
Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000
Up from August 2016 by 237,000
Up from July 2016 by 234,000
Up from June 2016 by 223,000
Up from May 2016 by 223,000
Up from April 2016 by 205,000
Up from March 2016 by 201,000
Up from February 2016 by 191,000
Up from January 2016 by 180,000
Up from December 2015 by 461,000
Up from November 2015 by 189,000
Up from October 2015 by 206,000
Up from September 2015 by 216,000
Up from August 2015 by 229,000
Up from July 2015 by 220,000
Up from June 2015 by 213,000
Up from May 2015 by 208,000
Up from April 2015 by 189,000
Up from March 2015 by 186,000
Up from February 2015 by 191,000
Up from January 2015 by 176,000
Up from December 2014 by 696,000
Up from November 2014 by 143,000
Up from October 2014 by 187,000
Up from September 2014 by 211,000
Up from August 2014 by 217,000
Up from July 2014 by 206,000
Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000

 

This month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 161,921,000 (up from January by 806,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 95,013,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—down by 652,000 from last month’s 95,665,000.  In one year’s time, this NILF population has increased by 765,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

 

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work— rose to 63.0%.  This is .6% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in February was 2.0% (this rate was .2% lower than last month’s 2.2%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in February was 2.3% (this rate was .2% higher as last month’s 2.1%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

On February 28th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the third quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 3.2%.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6%.  With this second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same.

 

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in private inventory investment that was partly offset by accelerations in PCE, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending, and an upturn in residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, turned up.

 

Updates to GDP

 

The percent change in real GDP was revised down 0.1% from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting a slight downward revision to private inventory investment.

 

2017 GDP

 

Real GDP increased 2.3% in 2017 (that is, from the 2016 annual level to the 2017 annual level), compared with an increase of 1.5% in 2016.

 

The increase in real GDP in 2017 primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The acceleration in real GDP from 2016 to 2017 reflected upturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports and a smaller decrease in private inventory investment.  These movements were partly offset by decelerations in residential fixed investment and in state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, accelerated.

Three Update Releases to GDP BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  “Advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July.  Annual updates generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.  Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.

 

 (Fourth Quarter and Annual 2017 “Third” Estimate will be released on March 28, 2018)

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2017, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although eight states provide fewer weeks and one provides more. Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you look at the past few years of unemployment in the February “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

February 2017             2.1%

February 2016             2.4%

February 2015             2.7%

February 2014             3.2%

February 2013             3.8%

February 2012             4.2%

February 2011             4.4%

February 2010             4.8%

February 2009             3.9%

February 2008             2.2%

February 2007             1.9%

February 2006             2.1%

February 2005             2.5%

February 2004             2.7%

February 2003             3.1%

February 2002             2.8%

February 2001             1.8%

February 2000             1.6%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

February 2017             2.4%

February 2016             2.5%

February 2015             2.7%

February 2014             3.4%

February 2013             3.9%

February 2012             4.2%

February 2011             4.3%

February 2010             4.9%

February 2009             4.2%

February 2008             2.1%

February 2007             1.9%

February 2006             2.2%

February 2005             2.4%

February 2004             2.9%

February 2003             3.0%

February 2002             2.8%

February 2001             1.6%

February 2000             1.6%

 

The February 2018 rates for these two categories, 2.0% and 2.3%, respectively, are low again this month and are at, or close to, the halcyon numbers we attained in the 2006-2008 & 2000-2001 time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

 

 

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25-year olds:

 

 

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.3% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7% 5.2% 6.3%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
5.4% 5.7%                  

 

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.5% 4.4%                  

 

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
3.4% 3.5%                  

 

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.1% 2.3%                  

 

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.2% 2.0%                  

 

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923 59,559 60,990 61,062 61,818 62,121

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
62,123 62,908                  

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656 1,731 1,463 1,285 1,266 1,290

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
1,374 1,301                  

 

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579 61,290 62,453 62,347 63,084 63,411

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
63,497 64,209                  

 

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.0% 2.0%                  

 

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.3% 2.0%                  

 

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.6% 4.5%