BLS Analysis for January 2014

By on March 17, 2014 in BLS Analysis

Bob Marshall’s January 2014 BLS Analysis; 2/7/14

 

 

January BLS Preface

 

TBMG News

 

Bob Marshall – Training/Coaching Updates

 

ARG, Independent Recruiters Organization, ACES (Agent Continuing Education Series), February 20th, 2014

 

For Robert Brennan and his ARG Group, I will again, this year, present a one-hour + Q&A program.  This will be on Thursday, February 20, 2014, at 1pm ET.  Contact Agent HR for details.

 

My presentation is entitled, “Marketing Call Mastery”.

 

5th Annual Recruiting Firm Owner Telesummit

 

Between March 18-21, 2014, I will be presenting at Mike Gionta’s 5th Annual Recruiting Firm Owner Telesummit.  Keep an eye on your inbox for specific details, dates and times.

 

The exact title of my presentation will be determined at a later date.

 

IPA National Convention 2014, Las Vegas, NV, April 3-4, 2014

 

I will be the keynote speaker at the Inter-City Personnel Associates (IPA) National Convention at Bally’s, Las Vegas, NV on April 3-4, 2014.

 

My two presentations will be: “How to Teach a Recruiter to Bill $1,010,349.50 in One Year” & “Marketing Call Mastery”.

 

COACHING**

 

**Now, if you are serious about increasing your billings, give my prized ‘$1,000,000 billing in one year’ student, David Thaler (502-531-9890), a call.  He will let you know what I did for him and what I can do for you to help you reach your maximum potential.  If you are ready to invest in yourself and to receive the info you need, to bill at high levels, I can give you that information.  Then it will be up to you to execute.  The ball is in your court.

 

New for 2014, all of my coaching will be based on my new “TBMG 20 WEEK TRAINING FORMAT”.  The syllabus for the format is available upon request.

 

*The descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, are available to you on my website: www.themarshallplan.org or you can reach me at 770-898-5550 or email me at: bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

 

Preface

 

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

 

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

 

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

 

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 

Why companies should function like sports teams.

by Ed Woycenko, January 22, 2014

 

It never ceases to amaze me how corporate America looks to build a championship caliber team but does not pay attention to how professional sports teams seek to win championships.

 

Imagine for a second that you are the owner, GM or coach of an NFL football team. You look at the history of the game and decide it is time to change the way things are done.  Instead of investing money in acquiring free agents to beef up areas your team is deficient in, you decide that you can get a star quarterback comparable to Peyton Manning without investing the funds.  You look at how much time and money is spent on the draft in looking at film, scouting college talent in person, interviewing individuals that you may be interested in drafting to see whether they have the proper attitude and approach to the game and whether they would be a fit in your organization. You decide that since we’re living in a new age and these proven methods aren’t going to help you obtain the talent you need in order to win the Super Bowl, you’ll put these techniques on the back burner in favor of attracting a new breed of player utilizing the latest thing. After looking at how many colleges have football teams, you decide that you can put together a championship caliber team by running ads utilizing social media, job boards and inviting anybody who has played to come and try out for your team. Not only can you put together a team, but look at the money you’ll save.  Your job posting may read like this:

 

Make your football dreams come true:   

 

If you have played football, and always had the desire to play in the NFL, XYZ team is holding tryouts for all positions in June. Prefer players who have played four years of college football. If you are a talented athlete who has always wanted to play football at the highest level, you are welcome to try out. We are seeking to build an NFL championship caliber team and believe the talent is out there that will allow us to accomplish our goals. Since we will not be providing any training, players should show up in good condition, be adaptable, flexible and must be quick learners.

 

Do you realistically think you are going to win a Super Bowl Championship only using this approach?  You believe the mission can be accomplished through Boolean and Keyword searches?

 

Really!!

 

Today a majority of companies are approaching talent acquisition and recruiting just this way.

 

Job duties and responsibilities, along with experience, seem to permeate social media and job board postings. Everyone seems to be interested in who you know and what you did, but few seem to be interested in how well you did something. Companies seem to be interested in who is going to show up for work but not what they’re going to do when they get there that will contribute to revenue and profitability. What criteria are you using to select your team?  Imagine a team looking for someone who can run the 40 yard dash rather than seeking someone who can run a 4.40, 40.  A pro-active approach that may utilize some of these tools could help you achieve your goals, but a reactive, passive, cost contained approach relying on job board posting and social media?????

 

Let me know when you win the Super Bowl!

 

 

Search execs more optimistic going into 2014 than 2013

Daily News, January 28, 2014

 

Retained search consultants around the globe are much more optimistic about the search industry going into 2014 than they were going into 2013, according to the Association of Executive Search Consultants’ 2014 Executive Search Industry Global Outlook Report.

 

A survey by the AESC found that 64% of retained search executives around the globe felt positive about the first six months of 2014. That compares to 29% who said the same going into the first six months of 2013.

 

For the first 6 months of this year, only 33% had a neutral outlook and just 3% did not feel positive.

 

The AESC reported the level of optimism going into the first 6 months of 2014 is the highest since July 2011.

 

“The results of our outlook survey are most encouraging and indicate that, in spite of continuing volatility in some regions and sectors, nevertheless there is real evidence of organizations thinking more strategically and looking ahead with a positive mindset,” said AESC President Peter Felix.

 

The survey included 169 executive search executives from around the globe. 43% were from the Americas; 34% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa; and 23% from Asia Pacific.

 

 

57% of US workers plan to seek new jobs this year, survey finds

Daily News, January 14, 2014

 

More than half of U.S. workers plan to look for a new job this year, according to a survey released today by executive search firm Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY). Of those surveyed, 57.1% said they will be looking for a better position in 2014. Meanwhile, 74.4% said they have or would consider taking a temporary job if a full-time position wasn’t available.

 

The survey also found that 65.9% of those now in jobs are optimistic about the 2014 economic outlook.

 

More money ranked as the top reason to explore new career opportunities in 2014, cited by 48.0% of respondents, followed by career advancement at 27.1%.

 

The survey was conducted in November 2013 and included nearly 300 employed adults in the United States.

 

 

21% of US workers plan to change jobs

Daily News, January 10, 2014

 

More U.S. workers plan to change jobs in 2014, according to a survey by CareerBuilder. It found that 21 % of full-time employees plan to change jobs in 2014, up from 17% last year. The percent of workers planning to change jobs this year is the highest in the post-recession era.

 

The survey also found fewer workers are satisfied with their jobs — falling to 59% this year from 66% last year.

 

“Offering frequent recognition, merit bonuses, training programs and clearly defined career paths are important ways to show workers what they mean to the company,” said Rosemary Haefner, vice president of human resources for CareerBuilder. “In general, however, when more workers change jobs, it’s usually a sign the labor market is warming up.”

 

The CareerBuilder survey included 3,008 employed U.S workers.

 

 

Unexpected drop in manufactured goods clouds economy

Reuters, January 28, 2014

 

Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods unexpectedly fell in December as did a gauge of planned business spending on capital goods, which could cast a shadow on an otherwise bright economic outlook.

 

The Commerce Department said that orders for so-called durable goods — ranging from toasters to aircraft — dropped 4.3%, pulled down by weak demand for transportation equipment, primary metals, computers and electronic products and capital goods.

 

Last month’s decline in orders for durable goods was the largest since July and reversed November’s revised 2.6% rise.

 

Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders to rise 1.8% in December after November’s previously reported 3.4% advance.

 

Durable goods orders fell despite a strong rise in aircraft orders at Boeing. The aircraft company reported on its website that it received orders for 319 planes last month compared with 110 in November.

 

Orders may have dropped because the model used by the government to iron out seasonal fluctuations was likely anticipating an increase in aircraft orders in December anyway.

 

Excluding transportation, orders fell 1.6%, the biggest decline since March, after edging up 0.1% in November.

 

While durable goods data is volatile from month to month, details of the report could support views that factory activity will cool off early this year after output grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the fourth quarter.

 

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, fell 1.3% after rising by a revised 2.6% in November.

 

Economists had expected orders for these so-called core capital goods to increase 0.5% in December after a previously reported 4.1% surge in November.

 

Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s measure of gross domestic product, slipped 0.2% last month.

 

 

41% in US view their work as ‘just a job’

Daily News, January 22, 2014

 

French workers are the most likely to say they have a “career” rather than “just a job,” while U.S. workers came in 3rd in the ranking, according to a survey released today by Monster Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: MWW) and market research company GfK.

 

The survey asked the question, “Do you view the work you do to be a career or just a job?” The following answers were received in the U.S.:

 

  • Just      a job: 41%
  • A      career: 57%
  • Don’t      know: 1%

 

America’s younger generations are the least likely to be career-minded, with 62% of those aged 18 to 35 stating they consider their employment as just a job rather than being part of a longer term career plan, compared with 28% of those aged 36 to 44 and 31% aged 45 to 54.

 

Here’s a list by country of those responding who said they view the work they do as a career rather than just a job:

 

  1. France:      70%
  2. Canada:      69%
  3. United      States: 57%
  4. UK:      43%
  5. India:      43%
  6. Netherlands:      38%
  7. Germany:      25%

 

The survey included more than 8,000 people in Canada, France, Germany, India, Netherlands, U.K. and U.S. It included 511 employed in the U.S.

 

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report;

81% of all new job growth in January 2014, comes from Small and Mid-size Companies

February 5, 2014

 

Private sector employment increased by 175,000 jobs from December to January, according to the January ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses: 75,000

1-19 employees 42,000

20-49 employees 33,000

 

Medium businesses: 66,000

50-499 employees 66,000

 

Large businesses: 34,000

500-999 employees 4,000

1,000+ employees 31,000

 

By Sector

 

Goods producing 16,000

Service providing 160,000

 

Industry Snapshot

 

Construction 25,000

Manufacturing <-12,000>

Trade/transportation/utilities 30,000

Financial activities 0

Professional/business services 49,000

 

Goods-producing employment rose by 16,000 jobs in January, down from an downwardly-revised figure of 50,000 in December.  Nearly all of the growth came from the construction industry which added 25,000 jobs over the month; this followed increases of 30,000 and 32,000 in the prior two months.  Manufacturing lost jobs in January; the decline of 12,000 followed a revised gain of 16,000 in the prior month and was the first decline in industry payrolls since July 2013.

 

Service-providing industries added 160,000 jobs in January, down from an upwardly-revised December figure of 177,000.

 

The report indicates that professional/business services contributed the most to growth in service-providing industries, adding 49,000 jobs.  This was well below the average gain of the prior two months of 65,000.  Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities slowed to a gain of 30,000 jobs in January.  Financial activities employment was flat over the month, following two consecutive months of gains of 6,000 apiece.

 

“The U.S. private sector added 175,000 jobs in January, which is in line with the average monthly growth throughout 2013,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Cold and stormy winter weather continued to weigh on the job numbers.  Underlying job growth, abstracting from the weather, remains sturdy.  Gains are broad based across industries and company sizes, the biggest exception being manufacturing, which shed jobs, but that is not expected to continue.”

 

(The February 2014 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on March 5, 2014).

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported monthly in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

January 2014 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             75,000

 

●By Size

 
►1-19 employees

42,000
►20-49 employees

33,000
 

●By Sector for 1-49 Employees

 
►Goods Producing

11,000
►Service Producing

64,000
 

●By Sector for 1-19 Employees

 
►Goods Producing

6,000
►Service Producing

37,000
 

●By Sector for 20-49 Employees

 
►Goods Producing

5,000
►Service Producing

27,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Structural Unemployment

 

On January 17th, the BLS reported that there were 4,000,000 job openings on the last business day of November, down 100,000 from October.  The 4,000,000 reflects published openings comprised of jobs that are advertised either online or in print format.

 

The hires rate (3.3%) and separations rate (3.1%) were unchanged in November. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by geographic region.  (The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for December 2013 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, February 11th, 2014).

 

As we recruiters know, that 4,000,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 4,000,000 published job openings now become a total of 20,000,000 published and hidden job orders.

 

In January there were 10,236,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 10,236,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

Online Labor Demand Down 56,888 in January

February 5, 2014

 

  • January decline      follows a flat pattern in labor demand seen in 2013
  • NOTE:  January data incorporate      this year’s annual revision for the series and new seasonal adjustments

 

Online advertised vacancies dipped in January to 5,232,000, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series. The December Supply/Demand rate stands at 2.0 unemployed for each vacancy with a total of 5.1 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.

 

“Employers still seem hesitant to expand their workforce,” said June Shelp, Vice President of The Conference Board. “The number of advertised vacancies remains high at about 5 million per month, but increases in ads have significantly dropped off over the past three years, declining from an average of +57,000 per month in 2011 to +45,000 in 2012 and down to only +26,000 in 2013.”

 

In January, the flat growth for many professional workers contrasted with the increasing demand for service workers (where there were more unemployed workers). In the professional category, there were several ads (three advertised vacancies for every unemployed worker) in the higher-wage professional categories like computer workers and professional medical workers. The pattern is the opposite in service/production jobs, where there are three or more unemployed workers for each job in the lower-paid service/production categories, including food service workers, personal care and building maintenance workers.

 

(The February 2013 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 am ET on March 5th, 2014).

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In January, 2014 the regular unemployment number was 6.6%, but that broader U-6 measure was 12.7%, almost twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.

 

The above 12.7% is referred to as the U6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate, but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.

 

Here is a look at the past 11 year’s U-6 numbers:

 

January 2013               14.4%

January 2012               15.1%

January 2011               16.1%

January 2010               16.5%

January 2009               13.9%

January 2008               9.0%

January 2007               8.3%

January 2006               8.4%

January 2005               9.3%

January 2004               9.9%

January 2003               9.9%

 

 

The January BLS Analysis

 

The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor.  The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On February 7th, 2014, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for January, 2014 of 6.6% (actually it is 6.584%, down .097% from 6.681% in December, 2013).

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 10,236,000 (—down from the month before by 115,000—since January, 2013 this number has decreased by 2,079,000) by the total civilian labor force of 155,460,000 (up by 523,000 from December, 2013).  Since January 2013, our total civilian labor force has decreased by 239,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga):  The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this time up to 246,915,000.  In one year’s time this population has increased by 2,252,000.  This is an increase of 170,000 from last month’s increase.  The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month…

 

Up from December 2013 by

170,000
Up from November 2013 by

178,000
Up from October 2013 by

186,000
Up from September 2013 by

213,000
Up from August 2013 by

209,000
Up from July 2013 by

203,000
Up from June 2013 by

204,000
Up from May 2013 by

189,000
Up from April 2013 by

188,000
Up from March 2013 by

180,000
Up from February 2013 by

167,000
Up from January 2013 by

165,000
Up from December 2012 by

313,000
Up from November 2012 by

176,000
Up from October 2012 by

191,000
Up from September 2012 by

211,000
Up from August 2012 by

206,000
Up from July 2012 by

212,000
Up from June 2012 by

199,000
Up from May 2012 by

189,000
Up from April 2012 by

182,000
Up from March 2012 by

180,000
Up from February 2012 by

169,000
Up from January 2012 by

335,000
Up from December 2011 by

2,020,000

 

And this month the BLS has decreased the Civilian Labor Force to 155,460,000 (up from December by 523,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 91,455,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—slightly better than last month’s 91,808,000.  Since January, 2013, 2,492,000 US workers have vanished!  Where did those 2,492,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time?  I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent.  They still need money, don’t they?  The government tells us that these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is:  “If that is the case, how do they live when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they all relying on the government to support them??”

 

Our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose .2% to 63.0%.  This is the third lowest Employment Participation Rate recorded—since April 1978…just over one year into President Carter’s term of office, 36 years ago!  One year ago, our Participation Rate in December was 63.6%.

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in January was 3.1% (this rate rose .2% from last month’s 2.9%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in January was 3.2% (this rate fell .1% from last month’s 3.3%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

—Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

 

On January 30th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the 4th quarter, “advance” estimate, of our real gross domestic product (GDP) — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.  GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.1%.

 

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released on January 30th is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.  The “second” estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2014.

 

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected a deceleration in private inventory investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, a downturn in residential fixed investment, and decelerations in state and local government spending and in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by accelerations in exports and in PCE and a deceleration in imports.

 

2013 GDP

 

Real GDP increased 1.9% in 2013 (that is, from the 2012 annual level to the 2013 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.8% in 2012.

 

The increase in real GDP in 2013 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The deceleration in real GDP in 2013 primarily reflected a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, and decelerations in PCE and in exports that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending.

 

The next GDP release, for the Fourth Quarter and Annual 2013 (Second Estimate), will be on February 28, 2014.

 

The economy needs to expand at about 3% just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.  Two consecutive quarters of a falling GDP indicate Recession.

 

 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

 

1.  Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

2.  Frictional unemployment – This comes
from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

3.  Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

4.  Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

5.  Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

1.  Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Just recently the government re-extended the eligibility for unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to as much as 73 weeks.  Studies suggest that this reduces the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

2.  Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the January “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

January 2013               3.9%

January 2012               4.3%

January 2011               4.7%

January 2010               5.0%

January 2009               4.1%

January 2008               2.2%

January 2007               2.0%

January 2006               2.1%

January 2005               2.4%

January 2004               3.0%

January 2003               3.2%

January 2002               3.1%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

January 2013               3.8%

January 2012               4.2%

January 2011               4.2%

January 2010               4.8%

January 2009               3.9%

January 2008               2.1%

January 2007               2.1%

January 2006               2.1%

January 2005               2.4%

January 2004               2.9%

January 2003               3.0%

January 2002               2.9%

 

So, while January’s 2014 rates for these two categories, 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively, are trending positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2002-2008 time frame.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best candidates.

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

7.7%

7.4%

8.2%

7.9%

8.4%

8.9%

8.6%

9.7%

9.8%

10.4%

10.6%

10.9%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

12.0%

12.6%

13.3%

14.8%

15.5%

15.5%

15.4%

15.6%

15.0%

15.5%

15.0%

15.3%

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

15.2%

15.6%

14.5%

14.7%

15.0%

14.1%

13.8%

14.0%

15.4%

15.3%

15.7%

15.3%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

14.2%

13.9%

13.7%

14.6%

14.7%

14.3%

15.0%

14.3%

14.0%

13.8%

13.2%

13.8%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

13.1%

12.9%

12.6%

12.5%

13.0%

12.6%

12.7%

12.0%

11.3%

12.2%

12.2%

11.7%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

12.0%

11.2%

11.1%

11.6%

11.1%

10.7%

11.0%

11.3%

10.3%

10.9%

10.8%

9.8%

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

9.6%

 

 

 

 

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

4.6%

4.7%

5.1%

5.0%

5.2%

5.2%

5.3%

5.8%

6.3%

6.5%

6.9%

7.7%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

8.1%

8.3%

9.0%

9.3%

10.0%

9.8%

9.4%

9.7%

10.8%

11.2%

10.4%

10.5%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

10.1%

10.5%

10.8%

10.6%

10.9%

10.8%

10.1%

10.3%

10.0%

10.1%

10.0%

9.8%

 

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

9.4%

9.5%

9.5%

9.7%

9.5%

10.0%

9.3%

9.6%

9.7%

9.6%

8.8%

8.7%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

8.4%

8.3%

8.0%

7.9%

8.1%

8.4%

8.7%

8.8%

8.7%

8.4%

8.1%

8.0%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

8.1%

7.9%

7.6%

7.4%

7.4%

7.6%

7.6%

7.6%

7.6%

7.3%

7.3%

7.1%

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

6.5%

 

 

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

3.7%

3.8%

3.9%

4.0%

4.3%

4.4%

4.6%

5.0%

5.1%

5.3%

5.5%

5.6%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

6.2%

7.0%

7.2%

7.4%

7.7%

8.0%

7.9%

8.2%

8.5%

9.0%

9.0%

9.0%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

8.5%

8.0%

8.2%

8.3%

8.3%

8.2%

8.3%

8.7%

9.1%

8.5%

8.7%

8.1%

 

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

8.0%

7.8%

7.4%

7.5%

8.0%

8.4%

8.3%

8.2%

8.4%

8.3%

7.6%

7.7%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

7.2%

7.3%

7.5%

7.6%

7.9%

7.5%

7.1%

6.6%

6.5%

6.9%

6.6%

6.9%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

7.0%

6.7%

6.4%

6.4%

6.5%

6.4%

6.0%

6.1%

6.0%

6.3%

6.4%

6.1%

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

6.0%

 

 

 

 

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

2.3%

2.4%

2.5%

2.7%

2.6%

3.1%

3.2%

3.7%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

3.8%

4.1%

4.3%

4.4%

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

4.9%

4.7%

4.9%

5.0%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

4.9%

5.0%

4.9%

4.9%

4.7%

4.4%

4.5%

4.6%

4.4%

4.7%

5.1%

4.8%

 

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

4.2%

4.3%

4.4%

4.5%

4.5%

4.4%

4.3%

4.3%

4.2%

4.4%

4.4%

4.1%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

4.2%

4.2%

4.2%

4.0%

3.9%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

3.8%

3.8%

3.9%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

3.9%

3.8%

3.9%

3.8%

3.5%

3.7%

3.8%

3.4%

3.3%

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

3.2%

 

 

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

2.2%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0%

2.6%

2.7%

2.9%

3.3%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.3%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

4.1%

3.9%

4.2%

4.0%

4.6%

5.0%

5.5%

5.4%

5.2%

4.7%

4.6%

4.6%

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

5.0%

4.8%

4.7%

4.5%

4.5%

4.9%

5.0%

5.1%

4.4%

4.5%

4.7%

4.6%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

4.7%

4.4%

4.3%

4.0%

4.4%

4.7%

5.0%

4.9%

4.4%

4.4%

4.2%

4.2%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

4.3%

4.2%

4.2%

3.7%

4.0%

4.4%

4.8%

4.5%

3.9%

3.8%

3.6%

3.9%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

3.9%

3.8%

3.6%

3.5%

3.5%

4.2%

4.1%

3.8%

3.5%

3.4%

3.1%

2.9%

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

3.1%

 

 

 

 

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

52,165

52,498

52,681

52,819

52,544

52,735

52,655

52,626

53,104

53,485

53,274

52,548

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

52,358

52,196

52,345

52,597

52,256

51,776

51,810

51,724

52,186

52,981

52,263

52,131

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

52,159

52,324

52,163

52,355

51,839

51,414

50,974

50,879

51,757

51,818

52,263

51,704

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

51,866

52,557

53,243

53,216

52,778

52,120

51,662

51,997

52,665

52,864

52,787

52,808

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

53,152

53,208

53,771

54,055

54,156

53,846

53,165

53,696

54,655

55,223

54,951

54,635

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

54,214

54,563

54,721

54,767

54,740

54,323

54,064

54,515

55,013

55,155

55,583

54,880

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

55,096

 

 

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

1,164

1,159

1,121

1,088

1,407

1,478

1,585

1,779

1,539

1,647

1,786

1,802

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

2,238

2,137

2,292

2,164

2,373

2,720

3,034

2,925

2,859

2,593

2,530

2,509

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

2,762

2,637

2,600

2,464

2,450

2,644

2,687

2,762

2,381

2,417

2,525

2,468

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

2,557

2,435

2,381

2,196

2,419

2,598

2,742

2,671

2,450

2,410

2,336

2,303

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

2,410

2,336

2,330

2,062

2,275

2,472

2,666

2,556

2,245

2,170

2,077

2,221

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

2,211

2,164

2,020

1,980

1,990

2,358

2,286

2,130

1,978

1,930

1,749

1,637

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

1,784

 

 

 

 

 

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

53,329

53,657

53,802

53,907

53,951

54,213

54,240

54,405

54,643

55,132

55,060

54,350

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

54,596

54,333

54,637

54,761

54,629

54,496

54,844

54,649

55,045

55,574

54,793

54,640

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

54,921

54,961

54,763

54,819

54,289

54,058

53,661

53,641

54,138

54,235

54,788

54,172

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

54,423

54,992

55,624

55,412

55,197

54,718

54,404

54,668

55,115

55,274

55,123

55,111

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

55,562

55,544

56,101

56,117

56,431

56,318

55,831

56,252

56,900

57,393

57,028

56,856

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

56,425

56,727

56,741

56,747

56,730

56,681

56,350

56,645

56,991

57,085

57,332

56,517

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

56,880

 

 

 

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

2.3%

2.3%

2.2%

2.1%

2.7%

2.5%

2.6%

2.8%

2.8%

3.0%

3.6%

3.9%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

4.6%

4.5%

4.5%

4.4%

4.6%

4.8%

4.9%

5.0%

5.2%

5.4%

5.4%

5.2%

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

5.2%

5.1%

5.4%

5.1%

4.9%

4.8%

4.7%

4.9%

4.3%

5.0%

5.5%

5.7%

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

5.3%

4.9%

4.8%

4.6%

4.9%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

4.7%

4.6%

4.4%

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

4.5%

4.4%

4.4%

4.0%

4.1%

3.8%

3.8%

3.7%

3.5%

3.6%

3.8%

4.1%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

4.0%

3.9%

3.5%

3.5%

3.8%

3.5%

3.1%

3.4%

3.3%

3.7%

3.2%

3.1%

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

3.4%

 

 

 

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

2.1%

2.1%

2.0%

2.0%

2.5%

2.9%

3.2%

3.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.0%

2.9%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

4.9%

4.6%

4.3%

4.1%

4.3%

5.0%

5.2%

5.3%

4.4%

4.1%

4.1%

3.8%

 

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

4.3%

4.1%

3.9%

3.5%

4.0%

4.9%

5.3%

5.1%

4.4%

4.1%

4.0%

4.0%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

4.2%

4.1%

4.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.8%

5.5%

5.2%

4.3%

3.9%

3.5%

3.8%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

3.8%

3.8%

3.6%

3.4%

3.3%

4.6%

4.7%

4.0%

3.6%

3.1%

2.9%

2.7%

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

2.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08

2/08

3/08

4/08

5/08

6/08

7/08

8/08

9/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

5.2%

5.2%

4.8%

4.3%

5.1%

5.6%

6.2%

6.3%

5.7%

6.1%

6.5%

7.0%

 

1/09

2/09

3/09

4/09

5/09

6/09

7/09

8/09

9/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

7.7%

8.4%

8.9%

8.6%

8.9%

9.1%

8.3%

8.7%

8.9%

9.5%

9.1%

8.9%

 

1/10

2/10

3/10

4/10

5/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

9/10

10/10

11/10

12/10

10.1%

10.2%

9.7%

9.2%

9.6%

9.4%

10.1%

9.0%

9.4%

9.1%

8.8%

8.3%

 

1/11

2/11

3/11

4/11

5/11

6/11

7/11

8/11

9/11

10/11

11/11

12/11

9.3%

9.0%

8.5%

8.5%

9.4%

9.7%

9.4%

8.6%

9.4%

8.2%

7.8%

7.7%

 

1/12

2/12

3/12

4/12

5/12

6/12

7/12

8/12

9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

8.2%

7.9%

8.1%

7.6%

7.9%

8.4%

8.3%

8.6%

7.9%

7.0%

7.3%

7.0%

 

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

8.5%

8.2%

7.7%

6.9%

7.1%

6.7%

6.9%

7.2%

7.5%

7.3%

7.0%

6.3%

 

1/14

2/14

3/14

4/14

5/14

6/14

7/14

8/14

9/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

7.1%