BLS Analysis for July 2014

Bob Marshall’s July 2014 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 8/1/14

 

 

July BLS Preface

 

TBMG News

 

Bob Marshall – Training/Coaching Updates:

 

Filming Complete!

 

On July 22, 23 and 24, 2014, I had three more of my presentations captured on film at NLE (they now have a total of five).  The three titles are:  “How to Inject Urgency into the Hiring Process”, “From Failure to Success in Recruitment Sales”; & “When Do You Stop Beating a Dead Horse?”

 

Those of you on NLE, keep your eyes peeled for the three release dates.  And those of you not members yet, you might consider joining.  Next Level Exchange (NLE) is a division of Kaye-Bassman (KBIC) based in Plano, TX.  They can be reached at:  www.nextlevelexchange.com.

 

Top Echelon, Free Recruiter Training Webinar, August 12, 2014

 

My presentation on Tuesday afternoon at 1pm, Eastern Time, will be:   “How to Inject Urgency into the Candidate”.

 

US Recruiters Network (USRN) National Convention 2014, Minneapolis, MN, October 2-3, 2014

 

I will be the keynote speaker at the US Recruiters Network (USRN) National Convention in Minneapolis, MN on Thursday and Friday, October 2-3, 2014.

 

My presentation on Thursday afternoon will be:  “How to Teach a Recruiter to Bill $1,010,349.50 in One Year”.

 

My two presentations on Friday morning will be:  “How to Inject Urgency into the Hiring Process” & “Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant”.

 

The Newport Group, National Convention 2014, Las Vegas, NV, October 10, 2014

 

I am negotiating now with The Newport Group to be their keynote speaker at their national convention at The Orleans Hotel in Las Vegas, NV.  If this goes together, I will be speaking on Friday, October 10, 2014.

 

I will present twice on Friday morning.  One presentation will be, “How to Inject Urgency into the Hiring Process” and the second is TBD.  Then I will meet with the management team in the afternoon.

 

More details to follow…

 

 

COACHING**

 

**Now, if you are serious about increasing your billings, give my prized ‘$1,000,000 billing in one year’ student, David Thaler (502-531-9890), a call.  He will let you know what I did for him and what I can do for you to help you reach your maximum potential.  If you are ready to invest in yourself and to receive the info you need, to bill at high levels, I can give you that information.  Then it will be up to you to execute.  The ball is in your court.

 

New for 2014, all of my coaching will be based on my new “TBMG 20 WEEK TRAINING FORMAT”.  The syllabus for the format is available upon request.

 

*The descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, are available to you on my website:  www.themarshallplan.org or you can reach me at 770-898-5550 or email me at:  bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

 

Preface

 

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

 

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

 

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

 

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 

Survey looks at compensation and attracting talent

Daily News, July 28, 2014

 

Employers face a number of challenges finding qualified talent. A lack of qualified workers is one commonly voiced concern, while some argue companies are unwilling to pay candidates enough for in-demand positions.  A new survey by Aerotek Inc. found 51% of respondents pay below their industry competitors and respondents were 2 times more likely to say they struggle to fill senior positions if they pay less than their competition.  The survey included 571 global organizations and was conducted in conjunction with the Human Capital Institute.

 

“With specialized individuals and senior-level talent in higher demand than ever, a company’s ability to attract and retain top talent is a critical component in the overall success of their organization,” said Dave Poling, director of recruiting operations at Aerotek.  “Employers should view their talent as an investment rather than an expense, with the understanding that higher compensation can lead to more qualified candidates, increased productivity and greater levels of engagement and retention.”

 

In addition to the importance of compensation, the survey also found:

 

  • Growing expectations. The increased complexity of positions due to more advanced technologies, increased time pressure, broader job descriptions and lower headcount is responsible for increased educational and experiential expectations for new hires.

 

  • Recognizing talent as an investment.  Increased productivity was ranked as the top advantage of hiring top talent at higher costs, and most respondents believe higher productivity is worth the higher pay. In addition, companies that pay below competitors were almost 2 times more likely to have high-performer turnover.

 

  • Employee satisfaction with total rewards.  Employee development programs and a generous PTO (Paid Time Off) policy increase employee satisfaction after controlling for compensation.       Organizations looking to add or modify their benefits may find that additional development opportunities and more PTO can lead to greater satisfaction with total rewards.

 

 

IT employment continues upward trajectory

Daily News, July 17, 2014

 

The number of U.S. information technology jobs rose by 0.3% month over month in June to a total of approximately 4,660,000, the TechServe Alliance reported.  The number was up 3.2% on a year-over-year basis.

 

In addition, the number of engineering jobs in the U.S. rose 0.3% month over month in June to more than 2,500,000.  The number was up 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.

 

“While the overall job market has only recently shown signs of robust growth, IT employment has been on an upward trajectory for some time.  Growth in June IT employment remains strong; posting a growth rate virtually identical to the prior two months,” said TechServe Alliance CEO Mark Roberts.  “On the engineering side, we continued to see an accelerating rate of growth with some of the best jobs numbers in recent memory.”

 

“Given the low unemployment rate in many IT and engineering occupations, we are in the phase of labor market cycle where future growth is more likely to be constrained by an inadequate supply of talent rather than by demand,” Roberts said.

 

The TechServe Alliance is a trade association of the IT and engineering staffing and solutions industry.

 

 

Hay Group says US base salaries to rise median 3%

Daily News, July 9, 2014

 

U.S. employees can expect a median base salary increase of 3.0% in 2015, according to research released by consulting firm Hay Group. After factoring in annualized consumer price index growth at 2.1%, the resulting base pay movement for 2015 is expected to be a net gain of 0.9%.

 

Hay Group’s study found that 3.0% median base salary increases hold steady across most industries, including chemical, consumer products, financial services, health insurance, industrials and utilities.

 

Two industries, however, stood out: The oil and gas industry forecasts higher base salary increases, and hospitals forecast lower increases. Oil and gas industry employees can expect a median base salary increase of 4.0% next year, while hospital employees can expect an increase of only 2.0% for most employee groups in 2015, according to the report.

 

“Sectors with increases that vary from the general industry outlook have tended to also show varied historical and future business performance outlooks,” said Jeff Blair, Hay Group’s U.S. productized services leader. “In most industries, however, we see significant employee flight risks given the improving economy and more employment opportunities for skilled workers. Employers will have to manage this risk, focusing on high potentials and employees with mission-critical skills and roles to ensure they don’t end up without the talent required to achieve future growth.”

 

Hay Group’s forecast results are based on the latest data provided by over 400 U.S. organizations from March through June 2014. This is Hay Group’s 35th year of conducting the survey.

 

 

Job seekers rank fulfillment above cool offices

Daily News, July 10, 2014

 

Job seekers are most excited by the opportunity to work in an industry they are passionate about, or the opportunity to work with people they professionally admire, according to an international survey by Monster Worldwide Inc.  Only 3% selected “innovative office design.”

 

“Job seekers are naturally most concerned about salary, benefits and convenience to their home,” said Mary Ellen Slayter, career advice expert for Monster.  “But once that’s settled, the intangibles come into play.”

 

Survey participants were asked, “Aside from salary, benefits and location, which of the following would most likely attract you to a new job?”  International findings include:

 

  • The opportunity to work in an industry I’m passionate about: 61%
  • The opportunity to work with people I professionally admire: 17%
  • A lively/energetic office environment:       13%
  • The opportunity to work for an aspirational/”cool” brand: 6%
  • An innovative office design: 3%

 

Respondents in North America were the most excited by working with people they professionally admire: 21% selected this option, with most other regions averaging around 10%. European respondents had elevated response rates favoring a lively work environment: 20% of French, Dutch and Italian respondents selected this option compared to 11% of respondents from the Americas.

 

The Monster online poll included over 2,400 Monster.com users and took place from June 2 to June 16, 2014.

 

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report:  81% of all new job growth in July 2014 came from Small and Mid-size Companies

July 30, 2014

 

Private sector employment increased by 218,000 jobs from June to July, according to the June ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses: 84,000

1-19 employees 34,000

20-49 employees 50,000

 

Medium businesses: 92,000

50-499 employees 92,000

 

Large businesses: 41,000

500-999 employees 14,000

1,000+ employees 27,000

 

By Sector

 

Goods producing 16,000

Service providing 202,000

 

Industry Snapshot

 

Construction 12,000

Manufacturing 3,000

Trade/transportation/utilities 52,000

Financial activities 9,000

Professional/business services 61,000

 

Goods-producing employment rose by 16,000 jobs in July, down from 43,000 jobs gained in June.  The construction industry added 12,000 jobs over the month, less than half last month’s gain.  Meanwhile manufacturing added 3,000 jobs in July, less than one-third the number of jobs added in June.

 

Service-providing employment rose by 202,000 jobs in July, down from 238,000 jobs in June.  The report indicates that professional/business services contributed 61,000 jobs in July, down from 79,000 in June.  Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 52,000, down slightly from June’s 56,000.  The 9,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down 25% from last month’s number.

 

“Although down from June, the July jobs number marks the fourth straight month of employment gains above 200,000”, said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The July employment gain was softer than June, but remains consistent with a steadily improving job market.  At the current pace of job growth unemployment will quickly decline.  Layoffs are still receding and hiring and job openings are picking up.  If current trends continue, the economy will return to full employment by late 2016.”

 

(The August 2014 ADP National Employment Reportwill be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on September 4, 2014).

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

July 2014 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             84,000

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees 34,000
►20-49 employees 50,000
   
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 6,000
►Service Producing 78,000
   
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing 3,000
►Service Producing 32,000
   
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 3,000
►Service Producing 47,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Structural Unemployment

On July 8th, the BLS reported that there were 4,600,000 job openings on the last business day of May, up from 4,500,000 in AprilThe 4,600,000 reflects published openings comprised of jobs that are advertised either online or in print format.

 

The hires rate (3.4%) and separations rate (3.2%) were essentially unchanged in May. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by geographic region.

 

(The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for June 2014 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 12th, 2014).

 

As we recruiters know, that 4,600,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 4,600,000 published job openings now become a total of 23,000,000 published and hidden job orders.

 

In July there were 9,671,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 9,671,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

 

Online Labor Demand Edged Down 15,500 in July

July 30, 2014

 

  • Following a strong June increase of 155,900, July showed a small loss
  • States were mixed with about half showing small gains

 

Online advertised vacancies showed a small drop of 15,500 to 5,044,600 in July, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The June Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.9 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 4.4 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number of unemployed was 9.5 million in June.

 

“Labor demand continues to be at historically high levels with employer demand running at about 5 million ads each month,” said Dr. Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomics and Labor Markets at The Conference Board. “While the average monthly increases have become more modest since early 2013, the overall trend has helped lower unemployment levels and reduced the U.S. Supply/Demand rate from a peak of 5.2 in June 2009 to 1.9 in June 2014.”

 

In July, professional occupations showed a small gain in Computer and Math (13,400) and Community and Social Services (3,500) but a drop in Healthcare (-8,300). The Services/Production occupations showed losses with Office and Administration (-15,700) and Installation and Repair (-9,600).

 

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine®Data Series (HWOL) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month for over 16,000 Internet job boards, corporate boards and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

 

 (The August 2014 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Serieswill be released at 10:00 am ET on Wednesday, September 3rd, 2014).

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In July, 2014 the regular unemployment number was 6.2%, but the broader U-6 measure was 12.2%, almost twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.

 

The above 12.2% is referred to as the U6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.

 

Here is a look at the July U-6 numbers for the past 11 years:

 

July 2013                     14.0%

July 2012                     14.9%

July 2011                     16.1%

July 2010                     16.5%

July 2009                     16.4%

July 2008                     10.4%

July 2007                     8.3%

July 2006                     8.5%

July 2005                     8.9%

July 2004                     9.5%

July 2003                     10.3%

 

 

The July BLS Analysis

 

The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor.  The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On August 1st, 2014, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for July, 2014 of 6.2% (actually it is 6.198%, up by .113% from 6.085% in June, 2014).

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 9,671,000 (—up from the month before by 197,000—since July, 2013 this number has decreased by 1,737,000) by the total civilian labor force of 156,023,000 (up by 329,000 from June, 2014).  Since July 2013, our total civilian labor force has increased by 330,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga):  The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this time up to 248,023,000.  This is an increase of 209,000 from last month’s increase.  In one year’s time this population has increased by 2,267,000.  The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month…

 

Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000

 

And this month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 156,023,000 (up from June by 329,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 92,000,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—slightly lower than last month’s 92,120,000.  Since July, 2013, 1,938,000 US workers have vanished!  Where did those 1,938,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time?  I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent.  They still need money, don’t they?  The government tells us that these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is:  “If that is the case, how do they live when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they all relying on the government to support them??”

This month our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose slightly to 62.9%.  This is .1% above the historically low rate of 62.8% recorded in April, May and June of this year and October and December of last year.  And, before those five months, the lowest rate since March 1978—just over one year into President Carter’s term of office, 36 years ago!

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in July was 3.5% (this rate was the same as last month’s 3.5%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in July was 3.1% (this rate dropped .2% from last month’s 3.3%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

 

On July 30th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the 2nd quarter, “Advance Estimate”, of our real gross domestic product (GDP) — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.  GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.0% in the second quarter of 2014 (that is, from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2014), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1% (revised).

 

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.

 

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

*The economy needs to expand at about 3% to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

 

 (The “second” estimate for the second quarter 2014, based on more complete data, will be released on August 28th, 2014).

 

 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Just recently the government re-extended the eligibility for unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to as much as 73 weeks.  Studies suggest that this reduces the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the July “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

July 2013                     4.1%

July 2012                     4.8%

July 2011                     5.0%

July 2010                     5.0%

July 2009                     5.5%

July 2008                     2.9%

July 2007                     2.5%

July 2006                     2.5%

July 2005                     2.7%

July 2004                     3.1%

July 2003                     3.7%

July 2002                     3.5%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

July 2013                     3.8%

July 2012                     4.1%

July 2011                     4.3%

July 2010                     4.5%

July 2009                     4.7%

July 2008                     2.5%

July 2007                     2.1%

July 2006                     2.1%

July 2005                     2.4%

July 2004                     2.7%

July 2003                     3.1%

July 2002                     3.0%

 

So, while July’s 2014 rates for these two categories, 3.5% and 3.1%, respectively, are trending positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2004-2008 time frame.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best possible job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best possible candidates.

 

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

 

 

Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6%          

 

 

 

 

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1%          

 

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3%          

 

 

 

 

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1%          

 

 

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5%          

 

 

 

 

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381          

 

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011          

 

 

 

 

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392          

 

 

 

 

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7%          

 

 

 

 

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1%          

 

 

 

 

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2%