BLS Analysis for June 2014

Bob Marshall’s June 2014 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 7/3/14

 

 

June BLS Preface

 

TBMG News

 

Bob Marshall – Training/Coaching Updates:

 

Next Level Exchange (NLE), a division of Kaye-Bassman (KBIC), Plano, TX, filming three sessions, July 22-July 25, 2014

 

My three presentations to be captured on film will be:  “How to Inject Urgency into the Hiring Process”, “From Failure to Success in Recruitment Sales”; & “When Do You Stop Beating a Dead Horse?”

 

Executive Search Owners Association (ESOA), Prestonwood Country Club, North Dallas, TX, July 23, 2014

 

I will be the guest speaker at the monthly meeting of ESOA in Dallas, TX.  My presentation on Wednesday afternoon, from 12:15pm to 1:45pm (approx.), will be:  “Marketing Call Mastery”.

 

Top Echelon, Free Recruiter Training Webinar, August 12, 2014

 

My presentation on Tuesday afternoon at 1pm, Eastern Time, will be:   “How to Inject Urgency into the Candidate”.

 

US Recruiters Network (USRN) National Convention 2014, Minneapolis, MN, October 2-3, 2014

 

I will be the keynote speaker at the US Recruiters Network (USRN) National Convention in Minneapolis, MN on Thursday and Friday, October 2-3, 2014.

 

My presentation on Thursday afternoon will be:  “How to Teach a Recruiter to Bill $1,010,349.50 in One Year”.

 

My two presentations on Friday morning will be:  “How to Inject Urgency into the Hiring Process” & “Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant”.

 

 

COACHING**

 

**Now, if you are serious about increasing your billings, give my prized ‘$1,000,000 billing in one year’ student, David Thaler (502-531-9890), a call.  He will let you know what I did for him and what I can do for you to help you reach your maximum potential.  If you are ready to invest in yourself and to receive the info you need, to bill at high levels, I can give you that information.  Then it will be up to you to execute.  The ball is in your court.

 

New for 2014, all of my coaching will be based on my new “TBMG 20 WEEK TRAINING FORMAT”.  The syllabus for the format is available upon request.

 

*The descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, are available to you on my website:  www.themarshallplan.org or you can reach me at 770-898-5550 or email me at:  bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

 

Preface

 

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

 

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

 

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

 

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 

How Much Employee Turnover Really Costs You

By Suzanne Lucas

 

The costs may be hidden, but they are still there. That alone should motivate you to treat your staff well.

 

You’ll hear people talk about the high cost of turnover, but when you try to press for the actual costs they don’t really know. It seems like a mysterious thing that people talk about.

 

And it’s true–the costs are largely hidden. It doesn’t hit your profit and loss statement. It’s not something in the budget. There are some hard costs, like the cost to post a position on a job board, or for specialized positions, the cost of a headhunter. But, even if you recruit strictly through word of mouth and employee referrals, there are costs to losing an employee. Here are the things you’re paying for.

 

Lowered productivity

 

The person who left was doing something, right? And who is doing that job now that the position is vacant? No one? That’s lost productivity right there. What if you just farm out the tasks to other people? Chances are, the most important tasks will get done, but other things will fall by the wayside.

 

Overworked remaining staff

 

Can you measure this in dollars? If your employees are exempt, their paychecks remain the same, so how is this a cost? Well, as they get stretched thin, their quality of work goes down as does their satisfaction and engagement. Which means that they are more and more likely to start looking for a new job and leave. And the longer they stay in their overworked roles, the harder it will be for you to regain their goodwill even after you’ve filled the vacancy.

 

Replay Advertisement

Lost knowledge

 

A ton of people can do what your former employee did, but they don’t have the specific knowledge she had. It’s not just about putting numbers in a spreadsheet, writing code, or selling a product. It’s about knowing the people, the traditions, the location of relevant information, what the boss likes and a million other things that come from working for a company for a long period of time. All that goes away when someone quits. And sometimes it’s more than just general company knowledge. How many of your employees have their jobs documented well enough that someone could figure it out with their documentation? Do you have people cross trained? Does one person have control of the passwords?

 

Training costs

 

Paid training costs are obvious. If you have to pay $5,000 for a seminar to teach your new employee your complex internal computer systems, that’s a cost noted on a spreadsheet. But, when there are no training classes to attend, there are still costs. Someone has to sit there and show him what to do. Someone has to double check work until the employee has proven himself. And that all takes the “trainer” away from her regular job. Which means you’re paying two people to do one job. Costly.

 

Interviewing costs

 

If you have to pay travel expenses, that’s costly. But if all your candidates are local, you still have to take the time to go through resumes, talk with numerous people, do formal interviews (which take an inordinate amount of time), talk with colleagues, and figure out who is the best employee.

 

Recruiters

 

I’m not talking headhunter fees (which are absolutely worth it for some positions), but rather the employee who has to find the candidates. In some business, you have dedicated HR or recruiting staff that takes care of this. They all get paid. And for smaller businesses, this task usually falls directly on the shoulders of the hiring manager–you know the one who is extra busy because he’s down one person? That costs too.

 

What do all these costs add up to? Well how much? Estimates run as high as 150 percent of annual salary. Much less for lower level positions, but still significant enough to make retention a high priority for your business.

 

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t fire problem employees.  You should–because they aren’t being productive and they encourage your good employees to quit. But, you should first try to counsel and coach and correct. And you should consider your pay scales for your good employees and give raises and bonuses when appropriate because it will cost you more to lose that good employee than the $5,000 raise you refused to give.

 

Turnover is expensive. Sometimes it cannot be avoided, but when it can, you should avoid it by doing the right things for your employees.

 

 

Honesty is best policy for attracting US workers, Randstad survey finds.

Daily News, June 10, 2014

 

A company’s ability to attract talent may hinge not only on its job offer, but also on its personality, according to a 2014 employer branding study released today by Randstad US. Honesty ranked as the top personality trait candidates look for when choosing an employer.

 

The study found 78% of workers look for an employer that is — first and foremost — Honest.

 

Other significant traits included an employer that is:

 

Reliable at 71%;

Secure at 62%;

Well-respected at 51%;

 

Survey respondents rated the least critical personality traits as being whether a company is:

 

Daring at 6%;

Robust at 6%;

Masculine at 4%;

 

“This is the first time the Randstad Employer Branding Study has measured personality traits important to prospective employees, and it’s extremely valuable for employers to know honesty holds such high importance,” said Jim Link, chief HR officer, Randstad North America. “Leading organizations understand a strong employer brand creates an important advantage for attracting today’s best talent, so identification of the top attributes wanted in a company allows leaders to refine their brand strategy.”

 

The survey was conducted among 11,549 potential employees. It was conducted online by ICMA Group on behalf of Randstad between November and December 2013.

 

 

12% of ad and marketing execs to hire, survey finds

Daily News, June 20, 2014

 

Companies in the creative field are easing up on hiring freezes but hiring plans are edging down, according to a new survey from The Creative Group, a marketing/creative staffing division of Robert Half International Inc.

 

12% of hiring managers at advertising agencies and marketing departments said they will add to their creative teams in the 2nd half of 2014, down from 13% in a similar survey 6 months ago. However, 12% project hiring freezes, down from 13% in the prior survey. 73% anticipate maintaining current staff levels and 3% expect to reduce the size of their staff.

 

“Companies are investing more in marketing and advertising initiatives and are often turning to outside vendors for help. As a result, agencies are hiring full-time and project staff to keep up with expanding client needs,” said Diane Domeyer, executive director of The Creative Group. “While professionals with digital expertise continue to be in demand, agencies also are actively looking to fill traditional roles, like account directors and account managers.”

 

Marketing and advertising executives were asked, “In which of the following areas do you expect to hire in the 2nd half of 2014?” The top 5 responses were:

 

  1. Account services: 24%
  2. Brand/product management: 21%
  3. Media services: 19%
  4. Social media: 17%
  5. Mobile development: 16%

 

The survey is based on more than 400 telephone interviews — approximately 200 with marketing executives randomly selected from companies with 100 or more employees and 200 with advertising executives randomly selected from agencies with 20 or more employees.

 

 

US real GDP contracts most since 2009

Daily News, June 25, 2014

 

The Commerce Department lowered its estimate of growth in U.S. real GDP to a 2.9% contraction in the first quarter from an earlier, “second” estimate of a 1.0% contraction. The first quarter’s contraction was the first since the first quarter of 2011.  Bloomberg reported it was the worst reading since 2009 and it was the biggest downward revision from a second estimate since records began in 1976.

 

“First-quarter GDP was revised down today, largely reflecting updated estimates of consumer spending on healthcare, which was substantially lower than originally reported, as well as exports, which were below the initial estimates,” wrote Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, in the White House blog.  “The GDP data can be volatile from quarter to quarter; a range of other data show a more positive picture for the first quarter, and more up-to-date indicators from April and May suggest that the economy is on track for a rebound in the second quarter.”

 

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report:  83% of all new job growth in June 2014 came from Small and Mid-size Companies

July 2, 2014

 

Private sector employment increased by 281,000 jobs from May to June, according to the June ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses: 117,000

1-19 employees 66,000

20-49 employees 51,000

 

Medium businesses: 115,000

50-499 employees 115,000

 

Large businesses: 49,000

500-999 employees 16,000

1,000+ employees 32,000

 

By Sector

 

Goods producing 51,000

Service providing 230,000

 

Industry Snapshot

 

Construction 36,000

Manufacturing 12,000

Trade/transportation/utilities 50,000

Financial activities 11,000

Professional/business services 77,000

 

Goods-producing employment rose by 51,000 jobs in June, up from 31,000 jobs gained in May.  The construction industry added 36,000 jobs over the month, more than double the May number.  Meanwhile manufacturing added 12,000 jobs in June, up slightly from last month.

 

Service-providing employment rose by 230,000 jobs in June, up from 148,000 jobs in May.  The report indicates that professional/business services contributed 77,000 jobs in June, up from 46,000 in May.  Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 50,000, up from May’s 36,000.  The 11,000 new jobs added in financial activities were about double last month’s number.

 

“The June jobs number is a welcome boost,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.  “The number of construction jobs added was particularly encouraging, representing the highest total in that industry since February of 2006.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is steadily improving.  Job gains are broad based across all industries and company sizes.  Judging from the job market, the economic recovery remains fully intact and is gaining momentum.”

 

(The July 2014 ADP National Employment Reportwill be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on July 30, 2014).

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

June 2014 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             117,000

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees 66,000
►20-49 employees 51,000
   
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 22,000
►Service Producing 95,000
   
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing 13,000
►Service Producing 53,000
   
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 9,000
►Service Producing 42,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Structural Unemployment

On June 10th, the BLS reported that there were 4,500,000 job openings on the last business day of April, up from 4,200,000 in MarchThe 4,500,000 reflects published openings comprised of jobs that are advertised either online or in print format.

 

The hires rate (3.4%) and separations rate (3.3%) were unchanged in April. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by geographic region.

 

(The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for May 2014 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, July 8th, 2014).

 

As we recruiters know, that 4,500,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 4,500,000 published job openings now become a total of 22,500,000 published and hidden job orders.

 

In June there were 9,474,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 9,474,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

 

Online Labor Demand Rose 155,900 in June

July 2, 2014

 

  • Labor demand fluctuated in the first six months of 2014 but remained basically flat
  • Since last June, labor demand is down for professional workers but up for service/production workers  

 

Online advertised vacancies were up 155,900 to 5,060,100 in June, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The May Supply/Demand rate stands at 2 unemployed for each vacancy, with a total of 4.9 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number of unemployed was 9.8 million in May.

 

“The June increase of 155,900 is positive news. However, the net effect is that labor demand was basically flat for the first six months of 2014,” said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board. “There is churn in the labor market as people change jobs. Most of the gains since last June were in the lower-paying service jobs, not the higher-paying professional jobs.”

 

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine®Data Series (HWOL) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month for over 16,000 Internet job boards, corporate boards and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

 

(The July 2014 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Serieswill be released at 10:00 am ET on Wednesday, July 30th, 2014).

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In June, 2014 the regular unemployment number was 6.1%, but that broader U-6 measure was 12.1%, almost twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.

 

The above 12.1% is referred to as the U6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.

 

Here is a look at the June U-6 numbers for the past 11 years:

 

June 2013                    14.3%

June 2012                    14.8%

June 2011                    16.2%

June 2010                    16.5%

June 2009                    16.5%

June 2008                    10.1%

June 2007                    8.3%

June 2006                    8.4%

June 2005                    9.0%

June 2004                    9.6%

June 2003                    10.3%

 

 

The June BLS Analysis

 

The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor.  The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On July 3rd, 2014, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for June, 2014 of 6.1% (actually it is 6.085%, down by .212% from 6.297% in May, 2014).

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 9,474,000 (—down from the month before by 325,000—since June, 2013 this number has decreased by 2,273,000) by the total civilian labor force of 155,694,000 (up by 81,000 from May, 2014).  Since June 2013, our total civilian labor force has decreased by 128,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga):  The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this time up to 247,814,000.  This is an increase of 192,000 from last month’s increase.  In one year’s time this population has increased by 2,262,000.  The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month…

 

Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000

 

And this month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 155,694,000 (up from May by 81,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 92,120,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—slightly higher than last month’s 92,009,000.  Since June, 2013, 2,390,000 US workers have vanished!  Where did those 2,390,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time?  I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent.  They still need money, don’t they?  The government tells us that these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is:  “If that is the case, how do they live when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they all relying on the government to support them??”

For the third month in a row, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—remained at a historical low of 62.8%This is the lowest Employment Participation Rate recorded (tying October and November 2013) since July 1978…just over one year into President Carter’s term of office, 36 years ago!  One year ago, our Participation Rate in June was 63.5%.

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in June was 3.5% (this rate rose .4% from last month’s 3.1%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in June was 3.3% (this rate rose .1% from last month’s 3.2%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

 

On June 25th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the 1st quarter, “third and final” estimate, of our real gross domestic product (GDP) — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.  GDP decreased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014(that is, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014), according to the “third and final” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6%.

 

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, real GDP was estimated to have decreased 1.0%.  With the third estimate for the first quarter, the increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was smaller than previously estimated, and the decline in exports was larger than previously estimated.

 

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a positive contribution from PCE.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

This is the first contraction since the first quarter of 2011.  If the second quarter 2014 GDP also decreases, we will be back into a Recession.

 

(Special Note – Definition of ‘Recession’:  A significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade. The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s gross domestic product (GDP); although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not necessarily need to see this occur to call a recession.)

 

The economy needs to expand at about 3% just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.  Two consecutive quarters of a falling GDP indicate Recession.

 

(The “advance” estimate for the second quarter 2014 and the Annual Revision of the National Income and Products Accounts will be released on July 30th, 2014).

 

 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Just recently the government re-extended the eligibility for unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to as much as 73 weeks.  Studies suggest that this reduces the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the June “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

June 2013                    4.2%

June 2012                    4.4%

June 2011                    4.7%

June 2010                    4.9%

June 2009                    5.0%

June 2008                    2.7%

June 2007                    2.3%

June 2006                    2.4%

June 2005                    2.6%

June 2004                    2.9%

June 2003                    3.5%

June 2002                    3.3%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

June 2013                    3.9%

June 2012                    4.1%

June 2011                    4.4%

June 2010                    4.4%

June 2009                    4.7%

June 2008                    2.4%

June 2007                    2.0%

June 2006                    2.1%

June 2005                    2.3%

June 2004                    2.7%

June 2003                    3.1%

June 2002                    3.0%

 

So, while June’s 2014 rates for these two categories, 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively, are trending positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2002-2008 time frame.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best candidates.

 

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

 

 

Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1%            

 

 

 

 

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8%            

 

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0%            

 

 

 

 

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3%            

 

 

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5%            

 

 

 

 

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714            

 

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001            

 

 

 

 

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715            

 

 

 

 

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8%            

 

 

 

 

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0%            

 

 

 

 

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1%