BLS Analysis for June 2018

Bob Marshall’s June 2018 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 7/6/18

 

June BLS Preface

 

TBMG Coaching Updates and News

 

Bob Marshall – Coaching & Speaking Updates:

 

California Staffing Professionals (CSP) Annual Conference, Westin Mission Hills, Rancho Mirage, California, June 7-9, 2018

 

I was in Rancho Mirage, CA a couple of weeks ago at the CSP Annual Conference giving a couple of presentations.  They were entitled, “How to Establish Elegant Rapport Through Elegant Communication” and “Words Matter, Messages That Work, – Voicemails and Emails.”  Both presentations were very well received.  If you are interested in more info on these concepts, email me and I will send you the program descriptions and a few of the handouts.

 

BTW, the CSP folks did another great job this year (Diane and Shannon) putting together a very strong program at this annual conference.  This was my second year in a row at the CSP Annual Conference and I enjoyed my time with them and for the support I received.

 

If you are interested in attending the next CSP Annual Conference or, if you are in California (or even outside of CA) and are looking for a group to join, you should check them out.  You can reach the CSP Executive Director, Diane Skullr, at diane@cspnet.org or at 800-799-9725 for more details.

 

WHY A COACH?

 

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

 

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988, “A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear, who has you see what you don’t want to see, so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

 

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

 

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

 

So for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

 

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb:  “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

 

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

 

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January, 2017

 

If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org.  Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

Preface

 

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

 

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

 

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

 

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 

Less Than Half of IT Organizations Plan to Increase Staff

Daily News, July 3, 2018

 

While IT spending is generally increasing, less than half of IT organizations plan to increase IT staff headcount this year, according to the IT Spending and Staffing Benchmarks 2018/2019 study released by Computer Economics.

 

The survey found 46% of IT organizations plan to increase IT headcount, down slightly from 49% in the 2017 study; 38% plan no change.  However, with only 16% of IT organizations planning to reduce headcount, the study does not foresee widespread layoffs of IT personnel on the horizon.

 

IT personnel are becoming more productive, keeping staffing levels in check, the report found.  Software as a service, cloud infrastructure, virtualization, and increased automation of routine IT activities are allowing IT organizations to increase service levels and shed support staff in favor of personnel with skills that serve the enterprise.

 

Although IT staffing levels are flat at the median, IT organizations are still adding staff for some positions.  While hiring is slowing for lower-level skills such as computer operations, scheduling and lower-level tech support positions, higher-level skills show increasing demand.  Examples include project managers, data analysts and IT security professionals.  As cloud applications and cloud infrastructure take up a larger percentage of IT spending, there is also a need for IT staff with skills in procurement and vendor management.

 

“IT is becoming more ‘white collar’ instead of ‘ironic T-shirt,’” said David Wagner, VP of research for Computer Economics.  “Modern IT professionals need skills that allow them to work with the business to solve problems, not simply to maintain infrastructure.”

 

The study is based on a survey of 205 IT organizations in the US and Canada.  It was conducted in the first half of 2018.

 

 

Total Compensation for Security-Cleared Professionals Up 7% to $93,004

Daily News, June 29, 2018

 

Total compensation for security-cleared professionals has risen 7% since 2017 to $93,004, according to survey data recently released by ClearanceJobs, a website for security-cleared jobs in the defense and intelligence industries.

 

Engineering ranks as the highest-paid industry with average compensation of $102,012; IT ranked second with average total compensation of $90,699.

 

The highest-paid job was systems engineer with average total compensation of $122,386.

 

“Today, we have a great need for professionals with the right skills and the right eligibility,” said Evan Lesser, founder and president of ClearanceJobs.com.  “The end of sequestration and record growth in the Pentagon budget — along with the difficulty in issuing new clearances — has created incredibly high demand for cleared professionals, particularly those in specialized technical fields such as data science and IT engineering.”

 

ClearanceJobs reports the Department of Defense has reduced the number of security clearances by more than 30% since 2013.  Security clearance processing times are also at record highs.

 

However, satisfaction rates in the security-cleared field has fallen 11% since last year.

 

The survey also found that 84% of respondents said they were “likely” to change their jobs in the coming year.

 

ClearanceJobs’ survey includes 20,883 usable responses from employed individuals with current, active federal security clearances.  It took place between Oct. 30, 2017, and Feb. 9, 2018.

 

 

Financial Advisor Most In-Demand Accounting/Finance Job; Average Salary $85,860

Daily News, June 29, 2018

 

Professional staffing firm CyberCoders, part of ASGN Inc., listed its most in-demand jobs for the accounting and finance industries in 2018.

 

Financial advisor, with year-over-year growth of 12.8% and an average salary of $85,860, ranks as the most in-demand job, followed by loan officer with 11.7% growth and a salary of $68,000.

 

“After the busy tax season, we often see an influx of hiring managers seeking talent to fill newly open roles and candidates eager to find their next, best job.,” CyberCoders President Shane Lamb said.

 

Here are the 10 most in-demand accounting and finance jobs for 2018, with salary average and year-over-year growth:

 

  1. Financial advisor: $85,860; 12.8%
  2. Loan officer: $68,000; 11.7%
  3. Tax supervisor: $96,944; 5.9%
  4. Staff auditor: 64,209; 5.4%
  5. Director of accounting: $129,606; 5.4%
  6. Underwriter: $84,297; 4.6%
  7. Accountant: $67,072; 3.8%
  8. Staff accountant: $58,427; 3.7%
  9. Mortgage processor: $54,541; 3.6%
  10. Accounting manager: $87,653; 3.4%

 

“It’s important for CyberCoders to remain as informed as possible on trends and in-demand jobs in the accounting and finance industries,” Lamb said.  “Deriving this data allows our recruiters to accurately assess the market and put their efforts into being as prepared as possible to help companies and candidates alike.”

 

CyberCoders is based in Irvine, Calif.  It derived the list by analyzing data points from more than 400,000 data points from proprietary placement and jobs data from 2014 to 2018.

 

 

AI just a ‘Tool’; Professionals Trust Human Recruiters More:  Korn Ferry

Daily News, June 28, 2018

 

Although big data and artificial intelligence continue to transform the recruiting industry, professionals have less trust in AI than in human recruiters, according to a survey released today by a new survey by executive search firm Korn Ferry International Inc.

 

While nearly three-quarters of those surveyed, 72%, said AI should be used during the recruitment process, more than two-thirds, 68%, said it wouldn’t be fair if AI alone chose who should be interviewed without the input of a human recruiter.

 

41% said they feel uncomfortable dealing with AI instead of a human recruiter as part of the process; 76% said they trust AI less than a person to guide the job search process.

 

“AI, when coupled with machine learning, is an incredibly strong tool in the journey to source and select the most qualified candidates, but it’s just that, a ‘tool,’” said Matt Heckler, general manager of global client platform solutions at Korn Ferry.  “The best recruiters use big data and AI to free time by automating tasks such as sourcing.  This gives the recruiter more time to focus on what matters:  Creating and filling roles that help organizations fulfill their strategic agenda.”

 

The professionals surveyed reported the top benefit of working with a recruiter is the ability to build strong relationships.  While 90% of respondents said technology cannot replace the human interaction required to recruit effectively.

 

Respondents did cite benefits of using AI in the recruiting process.  When asked what they value most from AI being used in recruiting, 30% said it makes the process go faster; and a quarter believe it helps take bias out of the equation.

 

“As AI continues to become part of our everyday lives, we can expect to see an increase in the adoption and integration of this emerging technology to help talent acquisition professionals be even more efficient and effective,” Heckler said.  “From freeing up time for strategic thought and relationship building to helping talent acquisition professionals better understand their markets, the intelligent use of technology provides an exciting path for the recruiter of the future.”

 

The survey was conducted in late May 2018 and included 431 professionals across a range of industries.

 

 

Employers Globally Struggle to find Workers with the Right Skills

Daily News, June 26, 2018

 

Businesses struggle to fill open positions as many states have more job openings than available skilled workers, according to ManpowerGroup’s 2018 Talent Shortage Survey.  Almost half of US employers surveyed, 46%, said they can’t find the skills they need — up from 32% in 2015 and maintaining the highest level recorded since 2006.

 

On a global basis, 45% said they can’t find the skills they need, up from 40% in 2017 and the highest in more than a decade.  Employers in Japan reported the most difficulty filling positions, 89%, followed by Romania and Taiwan at 81% and 78% respectively.

 

Argentina suffers from the most severe talent shortage in the Americas region at 52%.  In Brazil 34% of employers reported difficulty.  Mexico faces the biggest increase in hiring difficulty, jumping to 50% from 40% in 2016.  Brazil, Colombia and Argentina have experienced the greatest improvement in talent shortages since 2016.

 

Skilled trade workers remained the hardest role to fill in the US — cited by 14% of respondents — followed by sales representatives and drivers at 6% and 5% respectively.

 

Large US firms reported the most difficulty filling roles:  58% reported hiring challenges due in large part to lack of applicants.  26% said a lack of applicants is their biggest challenge; 14% report lack of hard skills and 7% report lack of soft skills are key reasons they struggle to fill jobs.

 

Most of the jobs with growing demand are mid-skilled roles that require training, yet not always a 4-year college degree, such as electricians, welders and mechanics.  More than half of the companies surveyed are investing in learning platforms and development tools to build their talent pipeline, up 7% from 2016.  And 19% of employers are also changing their existing work models, including offering flexible work arrangements.

 

More than 1/3rd of those surveyed said they are being more flexible about the education or experience requirements for the role, while 24% are using different types of workers including temporary or contingent — from freelancers to independent contractors.

 

“We continue to see increasing demand for skilled workers across all sectors of the US economy from transport and trade to manufacturing and sales,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManpowerGroup North America.  “Employers cannot find the people they need with the right blend of technical skills and human strengths and the problem won’t fix itself.”

 

Frankiewicz noted the need for a “new approach” to attract, recruit and retain talent.  “Employers need to buy skills where necessary, borrow from external sources and help people with adjacent skills bridge from one role to another,” she said.  “Above all, we need to be builders of talent, rather than consumers of work to create a workforce with the skills companies and individuals need to thrive today and tomorrow.”

 

Around the globe, the top 10 hardest jobs to fill are:

 

  1. Skilled trades
  2. Sales representatives
  3. Engineers
  4. Drivers
  5. Technicians
  6. IT staff
  7. Accounting and finance staff
  8. White-collar professionals
  9. Office support staff
  10. Production operators/machine operators

 

ManpowerGroup’s survey included 39,195 employers across 43 countries and territories.

 

 

IT Leaders in US to Increase Staff, Prioritize Security:  Robert Half Technology

Daily News, June 25, 2018

 

Senior managers plan to add more tech talent in the 2nd half of 2018 as security, cloud and digital projects in US companies expand, according to research released by Robert Half Technology.  60% of IT hiring decision-makers surveyed plan to expand the size of their teams between now and the end of the year.

 

The top cities adding to their tech teams are:

 

  1. Miami
  2. Detroit
  3. Los Angeles
  4. Phoenix, Ariz.
  5. Charlotte, NC

 

When asked to describe their top concerns, keeping IT systems and company information safe ranked 1st, followed by investing in new technologies, upgrading business systems for efficiency, and innovation.  Further, tech leaders in 21 of the 26 major metropolitan areas included in the study listed security as their biggest priority, after recruitment.

 

The top in-demand skills are:

 

  1. Cybersecurity
  2. Cloud security
  3. Cloud computing
  4. Cloud architecture
  5. Business intelligence

 

“Business needs surrounding security, cloud and digital transformation are outpacing the supply of talent, and technology leaders are facing difficulties staffing open roles,” said Jeff Weber, executive director of Robert Half Technology.  “Employers should be discerning about what skills are must-haves versus what can be trained for on the job and move quickly with offers when they meet strong candidates.”

 

Additionally, the survey found tech professionals seem willing to relocate for opportunities.  Most respondents, 81%, see more tech workers moving to their cities for career opportunities. The top 5 cities where senior managers plan to staff up their tech teams are:

 

  1. Dallas
  2. Seattle
  3. San Francisco
  4. Houston
  5. Miami

 

The online survey was developed by Robert Half Technology and conducted by an independent research firm.  The report is based on responses from more than 2,600 senior managers in 26 major US markets.  All respondents have hiring authority for the information systems or IT department of a company and were asked to provide a 6-month hiring outlook.

 

IT workers with the right skills are in high demand, but SIA research has found the median hourly wage for all US computer occupations grew 2.1% year over year in the most recent data available, May 2016.  More information on IT recruiting will be in the July/August issue of Staffing Industry Review magazine, available the week of July 23.

 

 

Benefit Packages Make or Break Job Offers:  Randstad US Study

Daily News, June 20, 2018

 

Only 39% of US workers are satisfied with the benefits their employers offer, according to a survey released by Randstad US.

 

Additionally, less than half of employees, 48%, report knowing all the perks their employers offer, and only 40% said their employers help them understand the benefits that are available.

 

Benefits packages are a make-or-break aspect of a job offer, the study found:

 

*66% of workers agree that a strong benefits and perks package is the largest determining factor when considering job offers, and 61% would be willing to accept a lower salary if a company offered a great benefits package.

 

*42% of employees say they are considering leaving their current jobs because their benefits packages are inadequate.

 

*55% have left jobs in the past because they found better benefits or perks elsewhere.

 

When considering a potential employers’ benefits, 75% of workers prioritize health insurance, followed by retirement funds and/or pensions at 21%.

 

Highly rated “workplace-related extras” that workers want to see more of included:

 

*Early Friday releases:  33%

*Flexibility and remote working:  26%

*Onsite lifestyle amenities, like gyms and dry cleaning:  23%

*Unlimited vacation time:  22%

*In-office meal options, like communal snacks or food courts:  18%

*Onsite childcare:  15%

 

Age, income level and gender all play a role in the benefits that employees prioritize.  41% of respondents aged 18 to 24 said their current employers do not offer student loan repayment benefits, but wish they did; workers aged 50 and older named health insurance as the top benefit they wish their employers offered; and 28% of respondents who earn more than $150,000 annually say bonuses are one of the most important perks when considering new employment.

 

“With the rise of the agile workforce and flexible work arrangements, the lines between ‘home’ and ‘work’ are increasingly blurred,” said Jim Link, chief human resources officer at Randstad North America.  “But what’s telling is that, although employees clearly express a desire for more freedom over where and how they work, when they are in the office, they take that time very seriously.  That’s why onsite amenities that make the workplace as comfortable and convenient as possible are still so attractive.”

 

The OmniPulse survey was fielded by national polling firm Research Now on behalf of Randstad US.  The survey was fielded from April 9 to April 13, 2018.  It included 756 respondents over the age of 18 and a nationally representative sample balanced on age, gender and region.  91% were employed as traditional employees at the time of the survey, and the remaining 9% were contractors or freelancers.

 

 

Confidence in US Economy Tempers Among CPA Execs, but Hiring Plans Improve

Daily News, June 1, 2018

 

Optimism about the US economy tempered among certified public accountants who hold leadership positions in their companies — such as CEO, CFO or controller — since the last quarter, according to the second-quarter Economic Outlook Survey released by the American Institute of CPAs.  However, hiring plans continue to improve.

 

74% of the CPA executives surveyed said they were optimistic about the economy over the next 12 months, down from 79% in the first-quarter survey.  The decline was partially attributable to concerns about trade and political uncertainty, survey respondents said.  Business executives’ optimism about the outlook for their own organizations also edged down one percentage point to 70%.  However, both sentiments fall in the uppermost range of post-Great Recession assessments.

 

“Despite their more tempered views on growth, business executives still see a strong hiring picture over the next year,” said Arleen Thomas, AICPA’s managing director of Americas market, global offerings and CGMA exam, management accounting.  “Labor market tightness continues to be a concern, with companies encountering difficulty in recruiting candidates with the right skills.”

 

Overall, 48% of the executives surveyed reported their company currently has the appropriate number of employees, down from 50% in last quarter’s survey.  The percentage of companies planning to hire rose to 30% from 27% in the first-quarter report.  Respondents who said they had too few employees but were reluctant to hire edged down to 13% from 14%.

 

The report also found “availability of skilled personnel” remains the top challenge facing organizations.  Regulatory requirements/changes jumped to second from fourth, while domestic competition dropped from second to fourth.  Employee and benefit costs maintained its third-place ranking and staff turnover maintained its top ten ranking at No. 7.

 

Meanwhile, the CPA outlook index — a gauge of executive sentiment within the survey — fell 2 points in the second quarter to 79 with all 9 components either down or flat this quarter, except for employment, which rose one point.  An index rating above 50 indicates a positive outlook.

 

The survey of AICPA business and industry members was conducted from May 8 to May 23, 2018 and included 831 qualified responses.

 

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report:  Over 61% of all new job growth in June 2018 came from Small and Medium-size Companies!

July 5, 2018

 

Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs from May to June (a 12,000 job decrease from May’s upwardly ‘revised’ 189,000*), according to the April ADP National Employment Report®.  *The May total of jobs added was revised up from 178,000 to 189,000.

 

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses:          29,000

1-19 employees              16,000

20-49 employees            13,000

 

Medium businesses:     80,000

50-499 employees          80,000

 

Large businesses:         69,000

500-999 employees         22,000

1,000+ employees           46,000

 

By Sector

 

  1. Goods-producing:                               29,000

 

  1. Natural resources/mining                    5,000
  2. Construction                                     13,000
  3. Manufacturing                                     12,000

 

  1. Service-providing:     146,000

 

  1. Trade/transportation/utilities              24,000
  2. Information            <-2,000>
  3. Financial activities               7,000
  4. Professional/business services                  33,000
  5. Professional/technical services                              11,000
  6. Management of companies/enterprises                     3,000
  7. Administrative/support services                            18,000
  8. Education/health services                          46,000
  9. Health care/social assistance                                  37,000
  10. Education                                                                  9,000
  11. Leisure/hospitality                                     33,000
  12. Other services                                               7,000

 

Franchise Employment

 

Franchise Jobs                        13,800

 

“The labor market continues to march towards full employment,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “Healthcare led job growth once again and trade rebounded nicely.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Business’ number one problem is finding qualified workers.  At the current pace of job growth, if sustained, this problem is set to get much worse.  These labor shortages will only intensify across all industries and company sizes.”

 

(The July 2018 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on August 1, 2018.)

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

June 2018 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             29,000 (a 9,000 decrease)

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees 16,000
►20-49 employees 13,000
   
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 2,000
►Service Producing 27,000
   
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing <-1,000>
►Service Producing 17,000
   
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 3,000
►Service Producing 10,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey – April 2018

June 5, 2018

The number of job openings was little changed at 6,700,000 on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5,600,000 and 5,400,000, respectively.  Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3% and the layoffs and discharges rate increased to 1.2%.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions. Job Openings On the last business day of April, the job openings level was little changed but reached a new series high of 6,700,000.  The series began in December 2000.  The job openings rate was 4.3% in April 2018.  The number of job openings was little changed for total private and for government.  Job openings increased in durable goods manufacturing (+33,000) and information (+26,000) but decreased in finance and insurance (-84,000).  The number of job openings was little changed in all 4 regions. Hires The number of hires was little changed at 5,600,000 in April.  The hires rate was 3.8%.  Hires for total private and for government were little changed.  The number of hires was little changed in all industries and in all 4 regions. Separations Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm. The number of total separations was little changed at 5,400,000 in April.  The total separations rate was 3.6%.  The number of total separations was little changed for total private and for government.  Total separations increased in state and local government education (+20,000).  The number of total separations was little changed in all 4 regions. The number of quits was little changed at 3,400,000 in April.  The quits rate was 2.3%.  The number of quits was little changed for total private and increased for government (+17,000).  Quits increased in state and local government education (+14,000) but decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-25,000).  The number of quits was little changed in all 4 regions  The number of layoffs and discharges edged up to 1,700,000 in April.  The layoffs and discharges rate increased to 1.2% over the month.  The number of layoffs and discharges edged up for total private and was little changed for government.  Layoffs and discharges increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+51,000) and in finance and insurance (+27,000).  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in all 4 regions. The number of other separations was little changed in April at 347,000.  The number of other separations was little changed for total private and unchanged for government.  Other separations was little changed in all industries and in all 4 regions. Net Change in Employment Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle.  Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.  When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.  Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in April, hires totaled 66,100,000 and separations totaled 63,700,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,400,000.  These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.____________ The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for May 2018 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, July 10, 2018 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).

 

As we recruiters know, that 6,700,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 6,700,000 published job openings now become a total of 33,500,000 published AND hidden job orders.

 

In June there were 6,564,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 6,564,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

 

Online Job Ads Decreased 171,600 in June

July 5, 2018

 

*Losses widespread across virtually all States and MSAs

*All occupations showed losses over the month

 

Online advertised vacancies decreased 171,600 to 4,480,700 in June, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released today.  The May Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.30 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 1,400,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.  The number of unemployed was approximately 6,070,000 in May.

 

The Professional occupational category saw changes in Healthcare practitioners (-26.8), Business (-16.4) and Management (-13.0).  The Services/Production occupational category saw changes in Transportation (-29.2), Sales (-24.5), and Office and admin

(-13.9).

 

NOTE:  Recently, the HWOL Data Series has experienced a declining trend in the number of online job ads that may not reflect broader trends in the U.S. labor market.  Based on changes in how job postings appear online, The Conference Board is reviewing its HWOL methodology to ensure accuracy and alignment with market trends.

 

OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

 

*In June, all of the largest 10 online occupational categories posted decreases

 

Healthcare practitioner ads decreased 26,800 to 497,300.  The supply/demand rate lies at 0.18, i.e. 5 advertised openings per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Business and financial operations ads decreased 16,400 to 282,900.  The supply/demand rate lies at 0.65, i.e. 1 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Management ads decreased 13,000 to 408,900.  The supply/demand rate lies at 0.55, i.e. 1 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Transportation ads decreased 29,200 to 325,500.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.54, i.e. 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

Sales and related ads decreased 24,500 to 414,000.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.49, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

Office and administrative support decreased 13,900 to 455,000.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.33, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

(The July 2018 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, August 1, 2018)

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In June 2018 the regular unemployment rate rose to 4.0% and the broader U-6 measure also rose .2% to 7.8%.

 

The above 7.8% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

 

Here is a look at the June U-6 numbers for the past 15 years:

 

June 2017                    8.6%

June 2016                    9.6%

June 2015                    10.5%

June 2014                    12.0%

June 2013                    14.2%

June 2012                    14.8%

June 2011                    16.2%

June 2010                    16.5%

June 2009                    16.5%

June 2008                    10.1%

June 2007                    8.3%

June 2006                    8.4%

June 2005                    9.0%

June 2004                    9.6%

June 2003                    10.3%

 

 

The June 2018 BLS Analysis

 

According to the June 2018 Employment Situation Summary, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor, the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June – a decrease of 31,000 from last month’s ‘revised’ 244,000—up from the originally reported 223,000.  With the revisions for April and May, employment gains in those two months combined were 37,000 more than previously reported.  After revisions, job gains have averaged 211,000 per month over the last 3 months.

 

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On July 6th, 2018, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for June 2018 of 4.0% (actually it is 4.048%, up by .293% from 3.755% in May 2018).

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 6,564,000 (–up from the month before by 499,000—since June 2017 this number has decreased by 400,000) by the total civilian labor force of 162,140,000 (up by 601,000 from May 2018).  Since June 2017, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,926,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total to 257,642,000.  This is an increase of 188,000 from last month’s increase of 182,000.  In one year’s time, this population has increased by 2,685,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016—by…)

 

Up from May 2018 by 188,000
Up from April 2018 by 182,000
Up from March 2018 by 175,000
Up from February 2018 by 163,000
Up from January 2018 by 154,000
Up from December 2017 by 671,000
Up from November 2017 by 160,000
Up from October 2017 by 183,000
Up from September 2017 by 204,000
Up from August 2017 by 205,000
Up from July 2017 by 206,000
Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000
Up from August 2016 by 237,000
Up from July 2016 by 234,000
Up from June 2016 by 223,000
Up from May 2016 by 223,000
Up from April 2016 by 205,000
Up from March 2016 by 201,000
Up from February 2016 by 191,000
Up from January 2016 by 180,000
Up from December 2015 by 461,000
Up from November 2015 by 189,000
Up from October 2015 by 206,000
Up from September 2015 by 216,000
Up from August 2015 by 229,000
Up from July 2015 by 220,000
Up from June 2015 by 213,000
Up from May 2015 by 208,000
Up from April 2015 by 189,000
Up from March 2015 by 186,000
Up from February 2015 by 191,000
Up from January 2015 by 176,000
Up from December 2014 by 696,000
Up from November 2014 by 143,000
Up from October 2014 by 187,000
Up from September 2014 by 211,000
Up from August 2014 by 217,000
Up from July 2014 by 206,000
Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000

 

This month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 162,140,000 (up from May by 601.000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 95,502,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—down by 413,000 from last month’s 95,915,000.  In one year’s time, this NILF population has increased by 759,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

 

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work— rose .2% to 62.9%.  This is .5% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in June was 2.5% (this rate was .8% higher than last month’s 1.7%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in June was 2.3% (this rate was .3% higher than last month’s 2.0%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

 

On June 28th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2018, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 2.9%.

MarketWatch reported that economists it polled had predicted the real GDP for the first quarter would be unchanged.  However, it’s believed the second quarter will reflect much faster growth.

 

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reported its GDPNow forecast model estimate of second-quarter real GDP is 4.5%.  The model is not an official forecast but a running estimate.  Reuters reported the $1.5 trillion tax-cut package is seen as spurring faster growth in the second quarter.

 

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.2%.  With this 3rd estimate for the first quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were revised down.

 

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, PCE, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected decelerations in PCE, exports, state and local government spending, and federal government spending and a downturn in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment and a larger increase in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decelerated.

 

Updates to GDP

 

The percent change in real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate, reflecting downward revisions to private inventory investment, PCE, and exports that were partly offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment. Imports were revised up.

 

Three Update Releases to GDP BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  “Advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July.  Annual updates generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.  Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.

 

(Second Quarter 2018 “Advance” Estimate will be released on July 27, 2018)

 

 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall, and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a worker’s decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2018, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program.  Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags the improvement in the GDP.

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you look at the past few years of unemployment in the June “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

June 2017                    2.3%

June 2016                    2.8%

June 2015                    2.9%

June 2014                    3.5%

June 2013                    4.2%

June 2012                    4.4%

June 2011                    4.7%

June 2010                    4.9%

June 2009                    5.0%

June 2008                    2.7%

June 2007                    2.3%

June 2006                    2.4%

June 2005                    2.6%

June 2004                    2.9%

June 2003                    3.5%

June 2002                    3.3%

June 2001                    2.1%

June 2000                    1.7%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

June 2017                    2.4%

June 2016                    2.6%

June 2015                    2.5%

June 2014                    3.3%

June 2013                    3.9%

June 2012                    4.1%

June 2011                    4.4%

June 2010                    4.4%

June 2009                    4.7%

June 2008                    2.4%

June 2007                    2.0%

June 2006                    2.1%

June 2005                    2.3%

June 2004                    2.7%

June 2003                    3.1%

June 2002                    3.0%

June 2001                    2.1%

June 2000                    1.6%

 

The June 2018 rates for these two categories, 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively, are very low again this month and are at, or close to, the halcyon numbers we attained in the 2006-2007 & 2000-2001 time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

 

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25-year old’s:

 

 

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.3% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7% 5.2% 6.3%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
5.4% 5.7% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5%            

 

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2%            

 

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3%            

 

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.3%            

 

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5%            

 

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923 59,559 60,990 61,062 61,818 62,121

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
62,123 62,908 63,067 62,561 62,360 61,349            

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656 1,731 1,463 1,285 1,266 1,290

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
1,374 1,301 1,310 1,134 1,083 1,575            

 

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579 61,290 62,453 62,347 63,084 63,411

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
63,497 64,209 64,377 63,695 63,443 62,924            

 

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1%            

 

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2.8%            

 

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4%