Bob Marshall’s May 2014 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 6/6/14
May BLS Preface
Bob Marshall – Training/Coaching Updates
Soliant Healthcare, Atlanta, GA, June 10 & June 24, 2014
My presentation on June 10th at 11am will be: “If It Don’t Make Money, It Don’t Make Sense”.
My presentation on June 24th at 11am will be: “How to Inject Urgency into the Hiring Process”.
Top Echelon, Free Recruiter Training Webinar, August 12, 2014
My presentation on Tuesday afternoon at 1pm, Eastern Time, will be: “How to Inject Urgency into the Candidate”.
US Recruiters Network (USRN) National Convention 2014, Minneapolis, MN, October 2-3, 2014
I will be the keynote speaker at the US Recruiters Network (USRN) National Convention in Minneapolis, MN on Thursday and Friday, October 2-3, 2014.
My presentation on Thursday afternoon will be: “How to Teach a Recruiter to Bill $1,010,349.50 in One Year”.
My two presentations on Friday morning will be: “How to Inject Urgency into the Hiring Process” & “Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant”.
**Now, if you are serious about increasing your billings, give my prized ‘$1,000,000 billing in one year’ student, David Thaler (502-531-9890), a call. He will let you know what I did for him and what I can do for you to help you reach your maximum potential. If you are ready to invest in yourself and to receive the info you need, to bill at high levels, I can give you that information. Then it will be up to you to execute. The ball is in your court.
New for 2014, all of my coaching will be based on my new “TBMG 20 WEEK TRAINING FORMAT”. The syllabus for the format is available upon request.
*The descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, are available to you on my website: www.themarshallplan.org or you can reach me at 770-898-5550 or email me at: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations. The answer is, of course, yes! That is why I spend the time to assemble this information. I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations. I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular. So use this info as you deem appropriate.
I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!
So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT! When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you. When they are being picky, they need you. When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you. Go fill those needs. These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!
Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.
Economists Puzzle Over Labor Force Dropouts
Victoria Stillwell, May 15, 2014
Since the depths of the recession, more Americans are working and a steadily shrinking number are officially unemployed. That’s good! But there’s another category: People who are neither working nor unemployed. They’re just not looking for a job. That number has stayed stubbornly high. Not so good. Or is it? Economists are divided. It depends on why people aren’t working. If a lot of them have given up looking for a job because they don’t think they can get a job, that can be a sign that times are tougher than the other statistics suggest. If, on the other hand, more people are choosing to retire or staying in school longer, the outlook may be rosier.
The share of Americans with a job or trying to find one fell steeply when the recession began and has stayed unusually low. It’s been hovering around 63%, down from 66.4% in 2007 and in April it matched its lowest point in 36 years at 62.8%. But the reasons it’s low have shifted, researchers say. Soon after the downturn hit, large numbers of people felt so glum about their employment prospects that they stopped looking — becoming what economists tellingly call “discouraged workers.” Usually, that group gets back in the game pretty quickly when the job market recovers. That hasn’t happened. Maybe that’s because the recession was unusually long, the recovery unusually slow and job searches unusually daunting. The same thing is happening in Europe — in the countries using the euro there were 9,300,000 people available to work but not seeking employment in 2013. There are also other factors at work, notably the aging of the baby boom generation. One U.S. Federal Reserve paper credited retirements by older workers for as much as 80% of the decrease in labor force participation over the past 2 years.
Beginning in about 1965, labor-force participation started swelling as baby boomers started jobs, and then rose further as an increasing number of women untied their aprons and entered the workplace. The labor force participation rate peaked at 67.3% in January 2000, right as the oldest baby boomers reached their last year in the prime working ages of 25 to 54. Now, retirements are running at a far faster pace. Surveys show that more older Americans are willing to work past 65 than a decade or two ago, but that group is still a minority. And the size of the baby boom cohort means that the number who do retire will continue to drag down the share of Americans at work. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that by 2022 the labor-force participation rate will be down to 61.6%.
It’s no surprise that the generation of younger workers succeeding retiring baby boomers is smaller. The question being debated is whether the new reality of a smaller workforce should change the way economists judge how strong the economy is. If shrinking workforce participation means the economy has less potential for growth than in the past — in effect, a lower speed limit — that’s an argument for policies like the Fed’s bond-buying to stimulate job creation. If not, pumping in more money could cause inflation. Either way, while the unemployment and job figures get more headlines when they’re released every month, the labor force participation rate remains a more important focus for economists looking for clues on the future pace of growth in the world’s largest economy.
Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Ignore Recruiters’ Calls
Glassdoor, May 29, 2014
You may be in your dream job, but that doesn’t mean you should blow off the recruiter or executive search consultant if they come calling.
Getting inundated with recruiters’ calls if you have sought-after skills can be annoying, but you never know when the roles will reverse and you will be the one looking for a job.
“It’s very common (for people to blow off recruiters calls) and it always leaves us scratching our heads,” says Kathy Harris, managing director of recruiting firm Harris Allied in New York. “We very often know about positions that no one knows about. At the end of the day you want to be the first person we think of.”
For the happily employed it doesn’t hurt to take the phone call. After all they may have an amazing job for you. Not to mention you are clearly wanted because they are the ones seeking out you. Even if the job may not be right for you but could be ideal for someone you know which creates a win-win situation. You get to refer someone you care about and you create a relationship with the recruiter because you are helping out.
Landing a better position or referring a friend or family member are the primary reasons you want to take a recruiters phone call, but it’s not the only reasons. Recruiters can be a great source of industry information as well as a sounding board as you navigate your career.
“Recruiters know which industries are shifting, which companies are growing, who is downsizing, and they are able to share this information in a third-party, non-biased way,” says Tom Gimbel, president and chief executive of LaSalle Network, a Chicago staffing company. “They know which skill sets are in demand, which certifications you need to grow your career and what you need to succeed in a role.” Not to mention recruiters know a lot of people and can connect you with mentors, key players and others who can help your career.
But not every recruiter or executive search consultant is created equal. You don’t want to waste your time with someone who can’t help you just like you don’t want to blow off the one that can. Figuring out who to create a relationship with and who to avoid can take work but it’s not impossible to do.
According to experts, when determining who is a good ally and who is a waste of time, do some quick research. If you get a call from a recruiter check out his or her LinkedIn page. See what types of clients they’ve placed what firms they work for and how long they have been in the business. Rightly or wrongly the amount of experience the person has as a recruiter matters a lot. Typically someone starting out in the recruiting field isn’t going to have the same contacts as someone who has been in the industry for years. It’s perfectly ok to ask how long they’ve been doing this, what industries they specialize in and what their client base is like.
“Finding a good recruiter is no different than looking for good networking contacts. Ask your friends and colleagues who has a good reputation,” says Susan Ruhl, a managing partner at OI Partners Innovative Career Consulting in Denver. “Research firms and individuals on LinkedIn.”
Once you figure out which recruiters you want to build relationships with then you can start the building. One of the most important things to do is establish boundaries up front as to how the relationship will go. For instance if the recruiter makes a habit of calling your office phone but you work in an open office environment tell the recruiter to phone you after hours or during your lunch hour on your mobile phone.
Equally important, says Harris is to make sure the conversations that do take place whether over the phone, email, text or in person are confidential. The last thing you want to happen is your boss to get wind of your newfound friendship with the recruiter for a competitor.
If you do decide to pursue an opportunity provided by a recruiter career experts say the best way to maintain an honest relationship is to be upfront about your experience, your skills and your weaknesses. Any embellishments will easily be revealed once the recruiter starts checking your credentials. It’s also a good idea to treat any interviews with a recruiter or executive search firm as if you were interviewing with the company. “A retained search firm is an extension of its client organizations, and should be treated as such during the interview process,” says to Linda Komnick, principal at Witt/Kieffer, the national executive search firm. “The search firm is expected to screen potential candidates based on mutually defined criteria, so think of your interview with the recruiter as your first interview in the hiring process.”
The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report: 79% of all new job growth in May 2014, came from Small and Mid-size Companies
June 4, 2014
Private sector employment increased by 179,000 jobs from April to May, according to the May ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
By Company Size
Small businesses: 82,000
1-19 employees 48,000
20-49 employees 34,000
Medium businesses: 61,000
50-499 employees 61,000
Large businesses: 37,000
500-999 employees <-3,000>
1,000+ employees 40,000
Goods producing 29,000
Service providing 150,000
Financial activities 6,000
Professional/business services 46,000
Goods-producing employment rose by 29,000 jobs in May, up from 21,000 jobs gained in April. The construction industry added 14,000 jobs over the month, down slightly from 16,000 in April. Meanwhile manufacturing added 10,000 jobs in May, up from April’s 2,000 and the largest number since December last year.
Service-providing employment rose by 150,000 jobs in May, down from 194,000 in April. The report indicates that professional/business services contributed the most to the lower overall number in May – adding 46,000 jobs, down from 75,000 in April. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 35,000, the same number of jobs added in April. The 6,000 new jobs added in financial activities were down slightly from 8,000 last month.
“After a strong post-winter rebound in April, job growth in May slowed somewhat,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The 179,000 jobs added figure is higher than May of last year and in line with the average over the past twelve months.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth moderated in May. The slowing in growth was concentrated in Professional/Business Services and companies with 50-999 employees. The job market has yet to break out from the pace of growth that has prevailed over the last three years.”
(The June 2014 ADP National Employment Reportwill be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on July 2, 2014).
Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that are specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.
May 2014 Small Business Report Highlights
Total Small Business Employment: 82,000
|●By Sector for 1-49 Employees|
|●By Sector for 1-19 Employees|
|●By Sector for 20-49 Employees|
Bottom-line: To my audience of recruiters, always remember this: Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies. Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!
Index: US small businesses adds year-high 35,000 jobs
Daily News, June 3, 2014
Small businesses added 35,000 new jobs in the U.S. in May, according to the small business and revenue indexes by Intuit Inc. May’s increase is the largest monthly increase in more than a year, and triple the average of 12,000 new jobs per month that have been added since the small business recovery began in April 2010, according to the report.
“This month’s employment increase is the largest we’ve seen in more than a year,” said Susan Woodward, the economist who works with Intuit to create the indexes. “In addition to the impressive increase of jobs this month, the hiring rate is also at the highest level we’ve seen since early 2009.”
This increase in small business activity could be credited to the spike in homebuilding, Woodward said. Housing starts grew from 947,000 units in March to 1,072,000 units in April, an increase of about 13%.
The index is based on aggregate and anonymous online employment data from approximately 170,000 businesses with fewer than 20 employees that use Intuit Payroll.
Job Openings and Structural Unemployment
On May 9th, the BLS reported that there were 4,000,000 job openings on the last business day of March, down from 4,100,000 in February. The 4,000,000 reflects published openings comprised of jobs that are advertised either online or in print format.
The hires rate (3.4%) and separations rate (3.2%) were unchanged in March. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by geographic region.
(The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for April 2014 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, June 10th, 2014).
As we recruiters know, that 4,000,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace. The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER. So, those 4,000,000 published job openings now become a total of 20,000,000 published and hidden job orders.
In May there were 9,799,000 unemployed workers. What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed? Two Words: Structural Unemployment. If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 9,799,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have. In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!
Online Labor Demand Edged Down 18,900 in May
June 4, 2014
- The Supply/Demand rate for April fell below 2 (fewer than 2 unemployed for every vacancy) for the first time in over six years
- Labor demand remains flat in 2014 and extends last year’s flat trend
- Demand falls in May for Sales, Management, and Computer workers but is up in Transportation, Production, Construction, and Installation
Online advertised vacancies were down 18,900 to 4,904,100 in May, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released on June 4, 2014. The April Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.98 unemployed for each vacancy with a total of 4.8 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number of unemployed was 9.8 million in April.
“Last month’s Supply/Demand rate fell below 2 for the first time in just over six years,” said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board. “That is good news for many workers since the April Supply/Demand rate is a broad indication of current employer demand for labor. Unfortunately, it’s not all good news since overall employer demand has been flat for over a year and we’re seeing a drop in demand for high-paying jobs like computer workers and medical professionals.” At the same time, in service / manufacturing occupations like production, building and grounds, food service, and construction, there were close to 4 or even more unemployed workers for every opening.
The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine®Data Series (HWOL) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month for over 16,000 Internet job boards, corporate boards and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.
(The June 2014 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Serieswill be released at 10:00 am ET on July 2nd, 2014).
In May, 2014 the regular unemployment number was 6.3%, but that broader U-6 measure was 12.2%, almost twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.
The above 12.2% is referred to as the U6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before). It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.” Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.
Here is a look at the May U-6 numbers for the past 11 years:
May 2013 13.8%
May 2012 14.8%
May 2011 15.8%
May 2010 16.5%
May 2009 16.4%
May 2008 9.8%
May 2007 8.3%
May 2006 8.2%
May 2005 8.9%
May 2004 9.7%
May 2003 10.1%
The May BLS Analysis
The unemployment rate is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor. The rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force. On June 6th, 2014, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for May, 2014 of 6.3% (actually it is 6.297%, up by .022% from 6.275% in April, 2014).
The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 9,799,000 (—up from the month before by 46,000—since May, 2013 this number has increased by 192,000) by the total civilian labor force of 155,613,000 (up by 192,000 from April, 2014). Since May 2013, our total civilian labor force has increased by 4,000 workers.
(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga): The BLS continues to increase the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this time up to 247,622,000. In one year’s time this population has increased by 2,259,000. This is an increase of 183,000 from last month’s increase. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month…
|Up from April 2014||by||183,000|
|Up from March 2014||by||181,000|
|Up from February 2014||by||173,000|
|Up from January 2014||by||170,000|
|Up from December 2013||by||170,000|
|Up from November 2013||by||178,000|
|Up from October 2013||by||186,000|
|Up from September 2013||by||213,000|
|Up from August 2013||by||209,000|
|Up from July 2013||by||203,000|
|Up from June 2013||by||204,000|
|Up from May 2013||by||189,000|
|Up from April 2013||by||188,000|
|Up from March 2013||by||180,000|
|Up from February 2013||by||167,000|
|Up from January 2013||by||165,000|
|Up from December 2012||by||313,000|
|Up from November 2012||by||176,000|
|Up from October 2012||by||191,000|
|Up from September 2012||by||211,000|
|Up from August 2012||by||206,000|
|Up from July 2012||by||212,000|
|Up from June 2012||by||199,000|
|Up from May 2012||by||189,000|
|Up from April 2012||by||182,000|
|Up from March 2012||by||180,000|
|Up from February 2012||by||169,000|
|Up from January 2012||by||335,000|
|Up from December 2011||by||2,020,000|
And this month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 155,613,000 (up from April by 192,000).
Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 92,009,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—slightly higher than last month’s 92,018,000. Since May, 2013, 2,255,000 US workers have vanished! Where did those 2,255,000 potential workers disappear to in one year’s time? I am assuming they still have to eat and pay their rent. They still need money, don’t they? The government tells us that these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job. My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they live when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job? Are they all relying on the government to support them??”
Our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—remained at 62.8%. This is the lowest Employment Participation Rate recorded (tying October and November 2013) since July 1978…just over one year into President Carter’s term of office, 36 years ago! One year ago, our Participation Rate in May was 63.4%.
Final take on these numbers: Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.
Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make. On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.
The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc. We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers. That unemployment rate in May was 3.1% (this rate rose .2% from last month’s 2.9%). Or, you can look at it another way. We usually place people who have college degrees. That unemployment rate in May was 3.2% (this rate fell .1% from last month’s 3.3%).
Now stay with me a little longer. This gets better. It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is. Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment). Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it. Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.
Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment! None! Zilch!
THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP
“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort. The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production. In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product. But production is the end, employment merely the means. We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment. But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”
–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”
On May 29th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the 1st quarter, “second” estimate, of our real gross domestic product (GDP) — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.0% in the first quarter of 2014 (that is, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6%.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP was estimated to have increased 0.1%. With this second estimate for the first quarter, the decline in private inventory investment was larger than previously estimated
The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a positive contribution from personal consumption expenditures. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
This is the first contraction since the first quarter of 2011. If the second quarter 2014 GDP also decreases, we will be back into a Recession.
(Special Note – Definition of ‘Recession’: A significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade. The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s gross domestic product (GDP); although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not necessarily need to see this occur to call a recession.)
The economy needs to expand at about 3% just to keep the unemployment rate from rising. Two consecutive quarters of a falling GDP indicate Recession.
(The “third” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on June 25th, 2014.)
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO
‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will. It conjures up negative thoughts. But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero. Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices. This can lead to inflation. The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%. That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953. A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.
There are five main sources of unemployment:
- Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery. Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs. These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.
- Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce. This category includes workers who are between jobs.
- Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing). This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved. Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.
- Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather. On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.
- Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result. Why? To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.
Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:
- Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Just recently the government re-extended the eligibility for unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to as much as 73 weeks. Studies suggest that this reduces the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.
- Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.
WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE
Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.
If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the May “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:
May 2013 3.5%
May 2012 4.0%
May 2011 4.4%
May 2010 4.5%
May 2009 4.3%
May 2008 2.6%
May 2007 1.9%
May 2006 2.0%
May 2005 2.4%
May 2004 2.8%
May 2003 3.0%
May 2002 3.1%
Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:
May 2013 3.8%
May 2012 3.9%
May 2011 4.5%
May 2010 4.6%
May 2009 4.8%
May 2008 2.3%
May 2007 2.0%
May 2006 2.1%
May 2005 2.4%
May 2004 2.9%
May 2003 3.1%
May 2002 3.0%
So, while May’s 2014 rates for these two categories, 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively, are trending positively, when looking at the big picture, it’s not anything to be very happy about either—especially when we see how well we had it during the 2002-2008 time frame. But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects. We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding. This will never change. And that is why, no matter the unemployment rate, we still need to market to find the best job orders and we still need to recruit to find the best candidates.
Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:
Less that H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate
H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate
Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate
BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate
Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)
Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate
Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate
Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate