BLS Analysis for September 2017

Bob Marshall’s September 2017 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 10/6/17

 

September BLS Preface

 

TBMG Coaching Updates and News

 

Bob Marshall – Coaching & Speaking Updates:

 

National Association of Personnel Consultants (NAPS), 2017 Annual Conference, Denver, Colorado, September 20-22, 2017

 

I was in Denver a couple of weeks ago at the NAPS Annual Conference making a presentation entitled, “Make Placements by Overcoming Objections with Contract Staffing” and it was very well received.  It seems like a lot of recruiters are adding the contract staffing piece to the placement services they offer (The Blended Desk) and are starving for knowledge on how to do that.  If you are interested in more info on this concept, email me and I will send you the webinar description and a few of the handouts.

 

BTW, NAPS did a great job putting together a very strong program at Denver.  If you are interested in attending the next NAPS Annual Conference, it will be at the Hyatt Regency Coconut Point Resort and Spa, Bonita Springs, Florida from November 4-6, 2018.  You can reach the NAPS President, Trinette Cunningham (tcunningham@naps360.org), for more details.

 

“Look for excellence, not perfection.  Everyone has flaws; the key is how they deal with them.”

 

WHY A COACH?

 

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

 

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988,

 

“A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear,

who has you see what you don’t want to see,

so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

 

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

 

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

 

So for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

 

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb, “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

 

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

 

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January, 2017

 

If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org.  Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

Preface

 

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

 

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

 

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

 

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Wiped Out 33,000 Jobs Last Month

NBC News, Lucy Bayly, October 6, 2017

 

The economy lost 33,000 jobs in the month of September, after hurricanes Harvey and Irma damaged crucial economies in Florida and Texas.  The storms had less of an impact on the unemployment rate, which dropped to 4.2%.

 

It’s the first time since 2010 that the employment market has dipped into the negative — job gains have averaged around 175,000 a month so far this year.

 

Friday’s official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed what market watchers had forecast:  Back-to-back storms during the month of September meant economists were anticipating — at best — low double digit job gains, with the most optimistic pegging the latest jobs figure at 90,000.  Fed Chair Janet Yellen even warned last month that “storm-related disruptions” would “affect economic activity in the near term.”

 

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Harvey

 

The average hurricane knocks about 50,000 jobs off the market, according to CNBC.  And, since jobs data is collected during the week that contains the 12th of the month, September figures captured the tail end of Hurricane Irma as well as the extended impacts of Harvey.

 

However, the weak September jobs figure is just a temporary blip on the general healthy economic outlook, and is not expected to have any lingering impact.

 

“Past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term,” the Fed noted in its statement last month.

 

In fact, natural disasters are frequently a boon for the economy, with financial stimulus in the form of rebuilding, infrastructure, and consumer spending as residents put their lives back together.

 

 

CyberCoders lists most in-demand jobs; Top Jobs for IT is Software Engineer with salary up to $139,165

Daily News, September 20, 2017

 

Professional staffing firm CyberCoders, part of On Assignment Inc., listed its most in-demand jobs and salaries for the IT, construction and accounting verticals.

 

Software engineer came in as the most in-demand job for IT; tax manager topped the list in the accounting vertical; and superintendent is the most in-demand job in the construction industry.

 

Here are the lists:

 

Top IT jobs for fall, with salary range (minimum to maximum):

 

  1. Software engineer: $99,106 to $139,165
  2. Senior software engineer: $121,195 to $169,270
  3. NET developer: $92,939 to $128,422
  4. Front-end developer: $106,026 to $143,460
  5. DevOps engineer: $106,026 to $143,460

 

Top accounting jobs for fall:

 

  1. Tax manager: $98,328 to $134,314
  2. Tax senior: $69,365 to $95,068
  3. Audit senior: $58,170 to $81,046
  4. Audit manager: $108,562 to $155,298
  5. DE underwriter: $62,098 to $87,595

 

Top construction jobs for fall:

 

  1. Superintendent: $94,110 to $149,480
  2. Project manager: $84,335 to $121,577
  3. Estimator: $71,259 to $111,504
  4. Project engineer: $69,282 to $102,846
  5. Electrical engineer: $88,974 to $122,573

 

“Technology continues to be an industry with increased demand for talent, especially for software engineers and developers,” CyberCoders President Shane Lamb said.  “But with a surge in the construction industry, we are also seeing an increased need for superintendents and project managers.  As the construction industry rebounds and new technology emerges to improve site operations, we expect this recent hiring trend to continue throughout the fall season and into 2018.”

 

CyberCoders is based in Irvine, California.

 

 

US Staffing Market to increase 3%, SIA Forecast says

Daily News, September 19, 2017

 

Total US staffing market — which includes temporary staffing as well as place and search — will rise by 3% both this year and in 2018, bringing total revenue in the industry to $145.1 billion next year, according to a new industry forecast by Staffing Industry Analysts.

 

US temporary staffing industry revenue is also projected to grow 3% in both 2017 and 2018 to reach a total of $125.6 billion next year, unchanged from the estimated growth rates in an April forecast.

 

 

“One headwind to temporary staffing market growth has been a scarcity of labor supply, noted in a variety of occupations, from construction to highly skilled IT roles,” said Tony Gregoire, director of research, the Americas, at Staffing Industry Analysts.  “Moreover, bill rates have been slow to adjust, partly due to low productivity growth. ”The 2017 growth projection for the temporary staffing market belies the difference in trends among the various occupational segments, from declines in office/clerical to double-digit growth in travel nurse and education.  Performance not only varies by occupational segment, but also by location.

 

Although the forecast does not project growth to accelerate beyond 3% in 2018 — partly due to the maturity of this expansion cycle — Staffing Industry Analysts researchers believe next year offers a bit more opportunity than the current one.  After a weak start to this year, GDP growth has improved and there is still the possibility, albeit diminishing, of a legislative catalyst such as tax reform or an infrastructure package to spur growth next year.

 

“At $145 Billion in US revenue, the large size and scope of the staffing industry highlights its importance to the overall economy,” said Barry Asin, President of SIA.  “The modest growth ahead that we see for the industry in 2018 is typical of an economy this late in the cycle where labor is in short supply.”

 

 

You might be more qualified for that job than you think

USA Today, Paul Davidson, September 18, 2017

 

Employers are using a new hiring philosophy to fill their vacancies.

 

No degree? No experience?

 

No problem.

 

With employers struggling to find workers in an ever-tightening labor market, many are hiring job candidates for both white- and blue-collar jobs who lack skills or experience deemed essential just a few years ago.

 

“Companies aren’t going for 100% of the job description,” says Paul McDonald, senior executive director of staffing firm Robert Half.  “They’re going for approximately 70% to 75% of the job description but they’re going with individuals who have high potential and are a good cultural fit.”

 

Think of the marketing coordinator who’s a whiz at digital and social media but can’t write content.  The aspiring warehouse worker with no prior experience.  Or the sales vice president who previously worked for a technology firm but knows little about the consumer product industry she’s applying to enter.

 

Even big conglomerates looking for top executives are opening the door to candidates who don’t work at multibillion-dollar, global companies, says Jeanne Branthover, managing partner of DHR International, an executive search firm.

 

To fill in the gaps, more employers are launching training programs.  Nearly half of U.S. employers provided such programs last year to deal with talent shortages, up from 12% in 2015, according to a survey by staffing firm ManpowerGroup.

Other companies are picking the candidate who meets most qualifications and then bringing on another worker to handle the rest — effectively splitting the job in two and paying each employee about half the original salary, says Tom Gimbel, CEO of LaSalle Network, a staffing agency in the Chicago area.

 

But, he adds, while businesses are increasingly coming around to the view that certain basic skills can be taught, job candidates must have innate “soft” skills, such as the ability to work well with colleagues and deal professionally with customers.

 

“They’re not going to sacrifice (on job requirements) for somebody who doesn’t have the interpersonal skills,” Gimbel says.

 

But candidates with some rough edges are becoming more attractive because employers have little choice.  The low, 4.4% unemployment rate means there are few uncommitted workers.  There were a record 6,200,000 job openings in July, the Labor Department said last week.  And nearly half of about 2,000 companies said they couldn’t find qualified candidates for their job openings this year, up from 41% in 2016, according to a CareerBuilder survey.

 

The so-called candidates’ job market is a turnabout from the years following the Great Recession, when unemployment hovered near 10% and businesses insisted that job applicants boast nine or all 10 of the criteria on their checklists.

 

Del Toro Loan Servicing, of Chula Vista, Calif., traditionally hired customer service representatives who had prior experience servicing mortgage loans.  But with the hunt for new employees stretching to 3 or 4 months from a normal 6 weeks, CEO Drew Louis decided to waive the requirement about 18 months ago.  Instead, he targets job-seekers who may lack relevant experience but relate well to customers, including those who are delinquent on their mortgage payments.

 

“They have to have empathy,” he says.  “We’re going after a much more available market.”

 

His last 4 hires included a restaurant manager, an administrative assistant and a stay-at-home mother who was venturing back into the workforce in her late 50s.  The company, which has 20 employees, supplies the neophytes with training videos so they can learn the basics and then has them work alongside veteran employees.  Louis says he’s filling openings in 2 to 4 weeks.  And while it takes a few months for the newcomers to become productive, even experienced new hires take some time to get up to speed.  Overall, he says, the entire process, including the candidate search, has been trimmed by about a month.

 

Louis is also saving money since the green employees start at about $30,000, half the salary of skilled new hires.  And since many earn significantly more than they did in their previous jobs, “They have an awesome attitude,” he says.  Most, he says, are more willing than older hands to call customers simply to see if they need anything.

 

Other firms are taking a more nuanced approach.  Chicago-based StratEx, which makes human resources software, no longer demands that sales reps have college degrees.  “If you took Economics 101 or Psychology 101, it probably is not going to help you sell better,” he says.

 

The company, with about 110 employees, is also open to tapping assistant project managers for project manager vacancies “if you’re hiring the right person in terms of innate drive and skill set,” he says.  “We’re taking a calculated risk.”

 

Top of Form

Bottom of Form

Seattle-based Amazon is looking for another city to build its second headquarters and has plans to invest $5 billion and create 50,000 jobs.

 

As a result, he says, the company early this year began 6-week classroom training for some new hires, a costly move that meant the addition of 2 new staffers.  He says the more flexible hiring criteria don’t always pan out and some less polished novices are let go.  But if 75% work out, “That’s where we want to be.”

 

Still, there are employers unwilling to compromise on qualifications for some jobs.

 

Ravin Gandhi, CEO of GMM Nonstick Coatings of Chicago, whose 300 U.S. employees make coatings for cookware, says the tight labor market has forced him to hire certain managers who have overseen fewer than 5 employees, for example, instead of an ideal 15 to 20.

 

But he says chemists who make coatings must meet all of his requirements, including having previous cookware experience, noting the products must pass government inspections.

 

“Someone might make coatings for car mufflers,” Gandhi says. “That person probably isn’t the right person.”

 

 

Workers Confident in Leadership, Robert Half Survey Finds

Daily News, September 14, 2017

 

Most professionals are confident in their company leaders’ stewardship, according to survey results released today by Robert Half Management Resources, a division of Robert Half International Inc.

 

Approximately 8 in 10 professionals polled feel at least somewhat confident in the ability of senior management to grow the business, provide sound financial stewardship and drive innovation.  Similar numbers of respondents believe their organization’s executives support staff members’ growth and manage change effectively.

 

The research also raised red flags with roughly 1 in 5 workers expressing concerns, such as feeling their firm’s senior leadership doesn’t value employees’ career and personal advancement.

 

“Most professionals recognize and appreciate the efforts of company leaders,” said Tim Hird, executive director of Robert Half Management Resources.  “In recent years, businesses responded to intense hiring competition by focusing on creating satisfying work experiences.  For example, many firms now place greater emphasis on work-life balance and developing career paths for their teams.”

 

Robert Half Management Resources also provided five tips for leaders:

 

  1. Take a genuine interest. Talk to employees about their career goals and what keeps them up at night.  You can only address their motivations and concerns if you know what they are.

 

  1. Add meaning to the job. Employees should know how your firm’s products and services improve the lives of customers and how their individual contributions support the company’s mission.

 

  1. Provide regular business updates. Make the organization’s objectives an ongoing topic of conversation.  Also explain to staff the rationale behind operational goals and the steps being taken to attain them.

 

  1. Tap experts. People won’t feel confident in leadership if they don’t have the support they need. Bring in consultants who provide in-demand knowledge not available internally, such as for a change initiative or merger integration.  Interim professionals also can assist with spikes in activity, helping staff manage heavy workloads better.

 

  1. Sell the firm to staff — again and again. Managers woo job seekers during the hiring process but often fail to keep the courtship alive.  Keep employees apprised of the firm’s successes and regularly promote the many great reasons to work there.

 

The survey was developed by Robert Half Management Resources and conducted by an independent research firm.  It includes responses from more than 1,000 US adult workers employed in office environments.

 

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report:  Over 46% of all new job growth in September 2017 came from Medium-size Companies!

October 4, 2017

 

Private sector employment increased by 135,000 jobs from August to September (a 93,000 job decrease from August’s revised 228,000—down by 7,000 from the originally reported 235,000) according to the September ADP National Employment Report®.

 

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses:     <-7,000>

1-19 employees       <-11,000>

20-49 employees           4,000

 

Medium businesses:  63,000

50-499 employees       63,000

 

Large businesses:      79,000

500-999 employees     16,000

1,000+ employees       63,000

 

By Sector

 

  1. Goods-producing:                                        48,000

 

  1. Natural resources/mining                           1,000
  2. Construction                                             29,000
  3. Manufacturing                                          18,000

 

  1. Service-providing:     88,000

 

  1. Trade/transportation/utilities          <-18,000>
  2. Information          <-11,000>
  3. Financial activities                4,000
  4. Professional/business services             51,000
  5. Professional/technical services                                40,000
  6. Management of companies/enterprises                      5,000
  7. Administrative/support services                                6,000
  8. Education/health services                           29,000
  9. Health care/social assistance                                    28,000
  10. Education                                                                  1,000
  11. Leisure/hospitality                                      20,000
  12. Other services                                            13,000

 

Franchise Employment

 

Franchise Jobs             14,000

 

“In September, small businesses experienced a dip in hiring,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “This is in part due to Hurricane’s Harvey and Irma which significantly impacted smaller retailers.  In addition, the continued slow down we have seen in small business hiring could be due to a lack of competitive compensation to attract skilled talent.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hurt the job market in September.  Looking through the storms the job market remains sturdy and strong.”

 

 (The October 2017 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on November 1, 2017.)

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

September 2017 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             <-7,000> (a <-55,000> decrease)

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees <-11,000>
►20-49 employees 4,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 15,000
►Service Producing <-22,000>
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing 8,000
►Service Producing <-19,000>
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing 7,000
►Service Producing <-3,000>

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – July 2017

September 12, 2017

 

On September 12th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings was little changed at 6,200,000 on the last business day of July.  Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5,500,000 and 5,300,000, respectively.  Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.2% and 1.2%, respectively.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions.

 

Job Openings

 

On the last business day of July, there were 6,200,000 job openings, little changed from June.  The job openings rate was 4.0%.  The number of job openings was little changed for total private and decreased for government (-58,000).  Job openings increased in a number of industries with the largest increases occurring in other services (+111,000), transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+70,000), and educational services (+26,000).  Job openings decreased in health care and social assistance (-72,000), state and local government, excluding education (-46,000), and federal government (-21,000).  The number of job openings was little changed in the regions.

 

Hires

 

The number of hires was little changed at 5,500,000 in July.The hires rate was 3.8%.  The number of hires was little changed for total private and for government.  The number of hires increased for federal government (+9,000), and was little changed for all other industries. The number of hires was little changed in all 4 regions.

 

Separations

 

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

 

The number of total separations was little changed at 5,300,000 in July.  The total separations rate was 3.6%.  The number of total separations was little changed for total private and for government.  Total separations increased in federal government (+8,000) but decreased in educational services (-19,000).  The number of total separations was little changed in all 4 regions.

 

The number of quits was little changed at 3,200,000 million in July.  The quits rate was 2.2%.  The number of quits was little changed for total private and for government.  Quits decreased in educational services (-16,000). The number of quits was little changed in all 4 regions.

 

There were 1,800,000 layoffs and discharges in July, little changed from June.  The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2% in July.  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private and for government.  The layoffs and discharges level increased in federal government (+9,000).  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in all 4 regions.

 

The number of other separations was little changed in July.  The other separations level was also little changed for total private and for government.  Other separations increased in professional and business services (+31,000) and in information (+6,000), but decreased in wholesale trade (-15,000).  In all 4 regions, the number of other separations was little changed.

 

Net Change in Employment

 

Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle.  Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.  When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.  Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in July, hires totaled 63,600,000 and separations totaled 61,500,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,100,000.  These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.

____________

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for August 2017 are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).

 

 

As we recruiters know, that 6,200,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 6,200,000 published job openings now become a total of 31,000,000 published AND hidden job orders.

 

In September there were 6,801,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 6,801,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

 

Online Job Ads Increased 2,500 in September

October 4, 2017

 

*Most States and MSAs are relatively flat

*Services/Production show gains while Professional Occupations show losses

 

Online advertised vacancies increased 2,500 to 4,482,300 in September, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released today.  The August Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.59 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 2,700,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.  The number of unemployed was approximately 7,100,000 in August.

 

The Professional occupational category saw losses in Management (-27.2) and Business and financial (-16.1).  The Services/Production occupational category saw gains in Sales (16.9), Office and Administrative Support (13.2), and Transportation (8.7).

 

NOTE: Recently, the HWOL Data Series has experienced a declining trend in the number of online job ads that may not reflect broader trends in the U.S. labor market.  Based on changes in how job postings appear online, The Conference Board is reviewing its HWOL methodology to ensure accuracy and alignment with market trends.

 

OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

 

*In September, 4 of the largest 10 online occupational categories posted increases

Management ads decreased 27,200 to 371,800.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.09, i.e. over 1 job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

Business and financial operations ads decreased 16,100 to 265,500.  The supply/demand rate lies at 0.73, i.e. over 1 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Computer and math ads decreased 5,000 to 493,700.  The supply/demand rate lies at 0.23, i.e. over 4 job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

 

Sales and related ads increased 16,900 to 444,500.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.66, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

Office and administrative support ads increased 13,200 to 466,000.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.62, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

Transportation ads increased 8,700 to 308,600.  The supply/demand rate lies at 1.89, i.e. over 1 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.

 

(The October 2017 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, November 1, 2017).

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In September, 2017 the regular unemployment number fell two-tenths to 4.2%, and the broader U-6 measure fell three-tenths to 8.3%, 1% less than twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.

 

The above 8.3% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.

 

Here is a look at the September U-6 numbers for the past 14 years:

 

September 2016          9.7%

September 2015          10.0%

September 2014          11.7%

September 2013          13.6%

September 2012          14.7%

September 2011          16.4%

September 2010          17.1%

September 2009          17.0%

September 2008          11.2%

September 2007          8.4%

September 2006          8.0%

September 2005          9.0%

September 2004          9.4%

September 2003          10.4%

 

 

The September 2017 BLS Analysis

 

According to the September 2017 Employment Situation Summary, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor, the total nonfarm payroll employment decreased by <-33,000> in September.

 

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On October 6th, 2017, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for September 2017 of 4.2% (actually it is 4.220%, down by.222% from 4.442%, in August, 2017.

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 6,801,000 (–down from the month before by 331,000—since September, 2016 this number has decreased by 1,103,000) by the total civilian labor force of 161,146,000 (up by 575,000 from August, 2017).  Since September 2016, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,316,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total to 255,562,000.  This is an increase of 205,000 from last month’s increase of 206,000.  In one year’s time, this population has increased by 1,471,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016—by…)

 

Up from August 2017 by 205,000
Up from July 2017 by 206,000
Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000
Up from August 2016 by 237,000
Up from July 2016 by 234,000
Up from June 2016 by 223,000
Up from May 2016 by 223,000
Up from April 2016 by 205,000
Up from March 2016 by 201,000
Up from February 2016 by 191,000
Up from January 2016 by 180,000
Up from December 2015 by 461,000
Up from November 2015 by 189,000
Up from October 2015 by 206,000
Up from September 2015 by 216,000
Up from August 2015 by 229,000
Up from July 2015 by 220,000
Up from June 2015 by 213,000
Up from May 2015 by 208,000
Up from April 2015 by 189,000
Up from March 2015 by 186,000
Up from February 2015 by 191,000
Up from January 2015 by 176,000
Up from December 2014 by 696,000
Up from November 2014 by 143,000
Up from October 2014 by 187,000
Up from September 2014 by 211,000
Up from August 2014 by 217,000
Up from July 2014 by 206,000
Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000

 

This month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 161,146,000 (up from August by 575,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 94,417,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—down by 368,000 from last month’s 94,785,000.  In one year’s time, this NILF population has increased by 156,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is:  “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

 

This month our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose .2% to 63.1%.  This is .7% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in September was 2.3% (this rate was .5% lower than last month’s 2.8%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in September was 2.3% (this rate was .1% lower than last month’s 2.4%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

On September 28th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 1.2% (revised). The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0%.  With this third estimate for the second quarter, private inventory investment increased more than previously estimated, but the general picture of economic growth remains the same. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected an upturn in private inventory investment, an acceleration in PCE, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment, a deceleration in exports, and a downturn in state and local government spending. Updates to GDP The revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected an upward revision to private inventory investment. Three Update Releases to GDP BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  “advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July.  Annual updates generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.  Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.

(The Third Quarter 2017 “Advance” Estimate will be released on October 27th, 2017)

 

 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2017, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although eight states provide fewer weeks and one provides more. Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the September  “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

September 2016          2.7%

September 2015          2.4%

September 2014          2.8%

September 2013          3.5%

September 2012          3.9%

September 2011          4.4%

September 2010          4.4%

September 2009          5.2%

September 2008          2.8%

September 2007          2.1%

September 2006          2.1%

September 2005          2.3%

September 2004          2.5%

September 2003          3.2%

September 2002          3.3%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

September 2016          2.5%

September 2015          2.5%

September 2014          2.9%

September 2013          3.7%

September 2012          4.0%

September 2011          4.2%

September 2010          4.5%

September 2009          4.8%

September 2008          2.6%

September 2007          2.0%

September 2006          2.0%

September 2005          2.3%

September 2004          2.6%

September 2003          3.2%

September 2002          2.9%

 

The September 2017 rates for these two categories, 2.3% and 2.3%, respectively, are low again this month and are at or close to the halcyon numbers we attained in the 2005-2007 time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

 

 

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

 

 

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.7% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 6.5%

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.3% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.3%

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6%

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3%

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3%

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923 59,559 60,990

 

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656 1,731 1,463

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579 61,290 62,453

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5%

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3%

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7%