BLS Analysis for July 2017

Bob Marshall’s July 2017 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 8/4/17

 

July BLS Preface

 

TBMG Coaching Updates and News

 

Bob Marshall – Coaching & Speaking Updates:

 

National Association of Personnel Consultants (NAPS), 2017 Annual Conference, Denver, Colorado, September 20-22, 2017

 

I have been invited by NAPS to present again, and so I will at the NAPS Annual Conference in Denver Colorado, September 20-22, 2017.

 

My presentation will be on Friday, September 22nd, from 11am to 12:15pm.  The title of my presentation will be: “Make Placements by Overcoming Objections with Contract Staffing.”

 

Training in Indiana, October 2017

 

I will be visiting clients and conducting meeting throughout Indiana in October.  Stay tuned for dates and times.

 

My presentations will be announced at a later date.

 

 

“Excellence is never an accident.  It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives – choice, not chance, determines your destiny.”

–Aristotle

 

 

WHY A COACH?

 

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

 

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988,

 

“A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear,

who has you see what you don’t want to see,

so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

 

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

 

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

 

So for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

 

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb, “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

 

If you are ready to take the first step, you can read descriptions of my coaching plans, and all of my products, on my website @ www.themarshallplan.org.  Then, call me directly at 770-898-5550 or email me @ bob@themarshallplan.org.

 

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

 

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January, 2017

 

 

Preface

 

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

 

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

 

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

 

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

 

 

Recruitment Process Over-Automated; Candidates miss Personal Connections, Randstad US Study finds

Daily News, August 3, 2017

 

While most candidates find value in technology, they are frustrated when it supersedes the human aspect of the process, according to a survey released today by Randstad US.  Accordingly, 82% of respondents agreed they are often frustrated with an overly automated job search experience.

 

Respondents weighed in on the specific role technology should play during the job search process:  Almost all respondents, 95%, agreed technology should be used to aid the recruitment experience, not replace it, and 87% of respondents agreed technology has made the job search process more impersonal.

 

The ideal candidate experience leverages innovative technology, but puts human interaction first, according to the report.  82% of those surveyed agreed the ideal interaction with a company is one where innovative technologies are behind the scenes and second to personal, human interaction.

 

Additionally, human interaction drives positive impressions of potential employers.  Beyond the overall job offer, the top two aspects of the respondents’ last job search that contributed to a positive impression of a potential employer centered on personal interaction.  Respondents named “the degree of personal, human interaction during the process,” and “the recruiter/hiring manager I worked with,” as having most influenced their positive impression.

 

“The findings reinforce what we’ve believed for quite some time, that successful talent acquisition lies at the intersection between technology and human touch,” said Randstad North America CEO Linda Galipeau.  “By leveraging emerging technologies, we are able to deliver on our clients’ and candidates’ expectations in a predominately digital world, but with more freedom to focus on the human connection.  If done correctly, the right combination of personal interaction with the power of today’s intelligent machines can create an experience that is inherently more human.”

 

Research findings are based on an OmniPulse survey fielded by national polling firm Research Now on behalf of Randstad US.  The survey included 1,200 adult respondents was fielded between June 19 and June 23.

 

 

Dow Hits 22,000 in another Record-Breaking Day for the Stock Market

NBC News, Ben Popken, August 2, 2017

 

The stock market shattered yet another milestone Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 22,000 points for the first time.

 

The 131-year-old index received a 50-point boost from Apple, whose shares saw a 6% hike after Tuesday’s strong earnings report.

 

“Stock Market could hit all-time high (again) 22,000 today,” President Donald Trump had tweeted early on Tuesday morning, as stocks approached the milestone figure.  “Was 18,000 only 6 months ago on Election Day.  Mainstream media seldom mentions!”

 

Markets have been on a steady upward trajectory since last fall, with optimism about a more business-friendly administration helping to drive the Dow Jones through the 20,000 barrier on November 22, 2016, before rising to a new record of 21,000 on March 1.

 

Strong quarterly corporate earnings paved the way for Wednesday’s milestone, with markets hitting multiple record highs throughout the month of July.  Almost three-quarters of companies who reported came in ahead of analyst expectations — including key drivers such as Boeing and McDonald’s.

 

 

Nearly 40% cite Schedule Flexibility as Top Factor in Career Choice, ManpowerGroup Solution says

Daily News, July 19, 2017

 

Workplace flexibility has become a top priority for today’s job seekers, and two-thirds of candidates believe they don’t need to be sitting at a desk to get their work done, according to ManpowerGroup Solutions’ Global Candidate Preferences Survey released today.  Nearly 40% of global candidates report that schedule flexibility is one of the top 3 factors they consider when making career decisions.

 

The survey found flexible arrival and departure times and full-time work from home/location independence are generally the most desired types of flexible workplace policies.  26% of global candidates say flexible arrival and departure times are most important, followed closely by the ability to work from home or any other place they choose at 22%.  The greatest demand for unlimited paid time off was found in the US.

 

Schedule flexibility preferences, global average and in the US:

 

*Flexible arrival and departure times: 26%, US 21%

*Full-time work from home: 22%, US 26%

*Choice in shifts: 15%, US 18%

*Part-time work from home: 12%, US 9%

*Compressed shifts/work week: 9%, US 11%

*Sabbaticals or career breaks: 6%, US 4%

*Caregiving leaves: 5%, US 2%

*Unlimited paid time off: 5%, US 8%

 

The rise in the importance of schedule flexibility is driven by a wide range of local factors, according to the report.  These include the presence of multinational companies or unions in that location; the influence of technology firms in the marketplace; workforce composition, such as proportion of Millennials; and congestion, infrastructure or public transportation that can impact commuting times.

 

Overall, the Global Candidate Preferences Survey respondents were between 18 and 65 years old and currently in the workforce (not retired or homemakers).  In total, the survey included 13,961 global respondents from 19 countries, including 1,384 from the US.

 

 

Engineering Jobs post Best Growth in almost a Year, TechServe Alliances reports

Daily News, July 17, 2017

 

Engineering employment accelerated in June, posting the strongest growth in almost a year, reported the TechServe Alliance, an association of IT and engineering staffing companies.

 

The number of engineering jobs in the US rose by 0.2% in June from May to almost 2,600,000 jobs; year over year, engineering employment in the US rose by 1.3% in June, adding 31,900 engineering workers.

 

“While IT job growth remained modest, engineering job growth accelerated in June,” said TechServe Alliance CEO Mark Roberts.  “After decelerating in May, June was the highest rate of engineering job growth since July 2016.  While one month does not make a trend, I am heartened to see improvement in the rate of engineering job growth, which has been anemic when compared to other sectors.”

 

Meanwhile, IT employment growth edged up 0.1% in June from May to more than 5,300,000 jobs.  Year over year, IT employment in the US rose by 3.2% in June, representing 162,100 IT workers.

 

 

Tight Labor Market is Reason for Unfilled Jobs, survey says

Daily News, July 12, 2017

 

It’s getting harder to fill jobs — and a lack of available applicants is the top reason why, according to a survey released today by Express Employment Professionals.

 

Almost a quarter of participants, 24%, said it is “very difficult” to recruit and fill positions and another 46% said it is “somewhat difficult.”  In total, 70% reported some level of difficulty, the highest percentage since the last quarter of 2016.  In contrast, 25% reported it is “somewhat easy,” while just 4% said it is “very easy.”

 

“There should be little doubt at this point that we have a tight labor market and are approaching full employment, at least by conventional measures,” Express CEO Bob Funk said.  “As a result, it’s not surprising to see companies lamenting the difficulty of finding talent.  Employers would be well advised to consider new recruitment and retention strategies.  If the economy continues to grow, these challenges will not subside, and it will be up to business leaders and elected officials alike to find ways to bring more people into the American workforce.”

 

Respondents were also asked, “What is the primary reason that your open jobs are not filled?”   A lack of available applicants replaced lack of experience, which garnered the most responses in last quarter’s survey, as the primary reason.  The top 5 responses include:

 

  1. Lack of available applicants: 32%, up from 30% in a similar survey in the second quarter
  2. Lack of experience: 30%, up from 32%
  3. I have all my positions filled: 20%, down from 24%
  4. Lack of hard skills: 18%, unchanged from the prior survey
  5. Lack of soft skills: 13%, down from 14%

 

The survey of 533 businesses gauged respondents’ expectations for the third quarter of 2017. The respondents are current and former clients of Express Employment Professionals.

 

COMMENTS

 

Christopher Keil, July 14, 2017

 

While I do not disagree with the results of the survey, I adamantly disagree with the conclusions drawn from it.  The reasons companies are having problems hiring “qualified” candidates is not due to a lack of people capable of doing the job, but rather it is the arrogance and laziness of the various companies, recruiters and hiring managers involved in the process.

Since the great recession at the early part of the decade, companies began a systematic creep in expanding hiring requirements.  In person interviews that were 2 hours in length became 4 to 5 multipart trials by fire.  Phone screens that were 20 minutes in length became hours of in-depth technical questioning by faceless multi-person panels that were followed by day long at home testing just to be eligible for a face-to-face interview.  More and more skills became required that didn’t apply to the actual job that the company was trying to fill.  The entire process became not about evaluated technical skills, but rather how much a candidate could endure.  Those that could pass through this ordeal might be great at the interviewing process, but that is an entirely separate skill set from actually being able to perform a given job.

Recruiters began calling for jobs located in distant locations offering middling wages to move away from family and responsibilities for potentially months on end, as local companies became increasingly reluctant to hire locally based candidates.

Companies, and especially recruiters, refused to follow up at the conclusion of an interview to even say that the hiring manager had not elected to go with a particular candidate.  Instead phone calls and especially emails are not returned and once the candidate has been passed on by a company, recruiters prefer to play a raw numbers game of simply tossing as many candidates at a client company as is possible.  In the few cases to a canned response, the reply is frequently insulting, which only serves to poison a past candidates view of the offending organization.

I personally have gone to interviews that I did well on but found out later that the interviewing company was engaged in evaluating dozens of other candidates.  Against that sheer volume of competitors, it becomes a lottery.  It is no longer about technical ability but rather a beauty contest of who had the best smile or was the most entertaining.  The days of preparation effort feels pointless and after repeated such experiences it become hard to care anymore.

I have over 25 years of solid software engineering experience accompanied by a wide variety of technical skills developed over years of technical involvement and have become so discouraged by my recent experiences, I have decided to leave the field altogether.  I added to my skill set with continued training and education. I was willing to work for half of my prior wage and without access to benefits.

Part of the reason for the hiring dearth perceived by companies may be the desire of companies to hire what they believe to be much cheaper foreign workers or generate excuses to move their operations to foreign countries.  This attitude rings hollow and self-defeating for them.

The cost of hiring me is well below that of a H1-B candidate, but none of that matters.  I am past the age of 55 and that appears to be a major factor.  All of my efforts and willingness to compromise are of no avail.  Typically, I have been insulted, belittled or ignored in the past year.  I am fortunate enough to have other sources of income developed over the years and don’t need to rely on a job to survive.  I simply wanted a job because I enjoy working.  I can now see that I am wasting my time attempting to provide my considerable abilities to an employer and at this point I am giving up.

I doubt anyone will read this, so I haven’t put as must effort into spelling all of my insights into this issue as I’d like (which could go on for many pages) but it is something I wanted to get off my chest.

The bottom line is that the reason companies can’t find qualified works isn’t because of any shortage, but because they don’t want to find someone to actually do the actual job.

 

 

CEO dismissals at poorly performing companies hit 15-year high, report finds

Daily News, July 12, 2017

 

The CEOs of poorly performing companies were 40% more likely to be replaced last year than in 2015, according to the 2017 edition of CEO Succession Practices, a report released by The Conference Board.  They were also 60% more likely to be replaced than the CEOs of better-performing companies.

 

Poorly performing companies — those with an industry-adjusted 2-year total shareholder return in the bottom quartile of the S&P 500 sample — had a record-high CEO succession rate of 17.1%, up sharply from 12.2% in 2015 and the highest rate of turnover seen for this group of companies since 2002 and higher than the 2001 to 2016 average of 13.9%.

 

“A major driver of this surge in 2016 is the exceptional number of CEO dismissals in the wholesale and retail trade sector,” said Matteo Tonello, managing director of corporate leadership at The Conference Board and a co-author of the report.  “The sector has been battered by a stronger dollar, weakness in emerging markets and relentless pressure from online one-stop-shop competitors such as Amazon.  These factors contributed to widely reported store closures and job losses in recent years.”

 

In this business sector, CEO dismissals accounted for 50% of the total succession tally for 2016, compared to 14.3% percent in the prior year.

 

Oil and gas extraction companies also experienced a spike in dismissals, with 75% of CEO succession cases in 2016 classified by The Conference Board as disciplinary, compared to 25% in the prior year.

 

The report also found companies continue to increase transparency around CEO succession planning.  Today’s boards are more inclined to provide earlier notice of the CEO succession event, describe the role performed by the board of directors in the CEO succession process, and shed light on the reasons for the transition.  In 2016, boards were 30% less likely than in 2015 to announce that the CEO succession was effective immediately.

 

“Boards continue to enhance transparency around CEO succession events, issuing disclosures that provide shareholders with more advance notice about a pending succession, and offer greater details regarding the reasons underlying the need for a CEO change,” Tonello said.

 

 

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report:  Nearly 75% of all new job growth in July 2017 came from Small and Medium-size Companies!

August 2. 2017

 

Private sector employment increased by 178,000 jobs from June to July, (a 13,000 job decrease from June’s revised 191,000—up by 20,000 from the originally reported 158,000) according to the July ADP National Employment Report®.

 

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP actual payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

 

By Company Size

 

Small businesses:       50,000

1-19 employees           27,000

20-49 employees         22,000

 

Medium businesses:  83,000

50-499 employees       83,000

 

Large businesses:      45,000

500-999 employees     35,000

1,000+ employees       10,000

 

By Sector

 

  1. Goods-producing:                                        4,000

 

  1. Natural resources/mining                         3,000
  2. Construction                                             6,000
  3. Manufacturing                                       <-4,000>

 

  1. Service-providing: 174,000

 

  1. Trade/transportation/utilities 24,000
  2. Information                8,000
  3. Financial activities             13,000
  4. Professional/business services             65,000
  5. Professional/technical services                                  16,000
  6. Management of companies/enterprises                       7,000
  7. Administrative/support services                                42,000
  8. Education/health services                          43,000
  9. Health care/social assistance                                     41,000
  10. Education                                                                   2,000
  11. Leisure/hospitality                                     15,000
  12. Other services                                             5,000

 

Franchise Employment

 

Franchise Jobs             26,600

 

“Job gains continued to be strong in the month of July,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “However, as the labor market tightens employers may find it more difficult to recruit qualified workers.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The American job machine continues to operate in high gear.  Job gains are broad-based across industries and company sizes, with only manufacturers reducing their payrolls.  At this pace of job growth, unemployment will continue to quickly decline.”

 

 (The August 2017 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on August 30, 2017.)

 

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

 

July 2017 Small Business Report Highlights

 

Total Small Business Employment:             50,000 (a 33,000 increase)

 

●By Size  
►1-19 employees 27,000
►20-49 employees 22,000
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing <-3,000>
►Service Producing 52,000
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees  
►Goods Producing 0
►Service Producing 28,000
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees  
►Goods Producing <-2,000>
►Service Producing 25,000

 

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

 

 

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary – May 2017

July 11, 2017

 

On July 11th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings decreased to 5,700,000 on the last business day of May.  Over the month, hires increased to 5,500,000 and separations increased to 5,300,000.  Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.2% and the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.1%.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions.

 

Job Openings

 

On the last business day of May, the job openings level decreased to 5,700,000

(-301,000).  The job openings rate was 3.7%.  The number of job openings decreased for total private (-283,000) and was little changed for government.  Job openings increased in retail trade (+72,000) and educational services (+17,000).  Job openings decreased in a number of industries with the largest decreases occurring in construction (-46,000) and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-45,000).  The number of job openings decreased in the Midwest region.

 

Hires

 

The number of hires rose to 5,500,000 (+429,000) in May.  The hires rate was 3.7%.  The number of hires increased for total private (+423,000) and was little changed for government.  Hires increased in professional and business services (+121,000), other services (+78,000), and educational services (+25,000).  The number of hires increased in the South region.

 

Separations

 

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

 

The number of total separations increased to 5,300,000 (+251,000) in May.  The total separations rate was 3.6%.  Total separations increased for total private (+245,000) and was little changed for government.  Total separations increased in retail trade (+73,000) but decreased in federal government(-8,000).  The number of total separations rose in the South region.

 

The number of quits increased to 3,200,000 (+177,000) in May.  The quits rate was 2.2%.  The number of quits rose for total private (+159,000) and for government (+19,000).   Quits increased in a number of industries with the largest increases occurring in retail trade (+66,000) and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+20,000).  The number of quits decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-15,000).  The number of quits increased in the South region.

 

There were 1,700,000 layoffs and discharges in May, little changed from April.  The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1% in May.  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private and for government.  The layoffs and discharges level increased in professional and business services (+77,000).  The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in all 4 regions.

 

The number of other separations was little changed in May.  Other separations was essentially unchanged for total private and for government.  Other separations increased in educational services (+4,000) but decreased in federal government (-3,000).  In all 4 regions, the number of other separations was little changed.

 

Net Change in Employment

 

Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle.  Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.  When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.  Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in May, hires totaled 63,200,000 and separations totaled 60,900,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,400,000.  These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.

 

____________

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for June 2017 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 8, 2017 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).

 

 

As we recruiters know, that 5,700,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.   So, those 5,700,000 published job openings now become a total of 28,500,000 published AND hidden job orders.

 

In July there were 6,981,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 6,981,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace flourishes!

 

 

Online Job Ads Decreased 157,700 in July

August 2, 2017

 

*The June and July losses offset the May gain

*Loss widespread across virtually all States and MSAs

*Most occupations showed losses over the month

 

Online advertised vacancies decreased 157,700 to 4,605,700 in July, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series, released today.  The June Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.46 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 2,200,000 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number of unemployed was approximately 7,000,000 in June.

 

The Professional occupational category saw losses in Computer and Math (-20.7) and Management (-6.0). The Services/Production occupational category saw losses in Sales

(-27.3), Office and Administrative Support (-16,5), and Food Preparation (-7.7).

 

NOTE: Recently, the HWOL Data Series has experienced a declining trend in the number of online job ads that may not reflect broader trends in the U.S. labor market.  Based on changes in how job postings appear online, The Conference Board is reviewing its HWOL methodology to ensure accuracy and alignment with market trends.

 

OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

 

*In July, all the largest 10 online occupational categories posted decreases.

 

Computer and mathematical science ads decreased 20,700 to 510,000. The supply/demand rate lies at 0.21, i.e. over 4 advertised openings per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Management ads decreased 6,000 to 401,400. The supply/demand rate lies at 0.80, i.e. over 1 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker.

 

Sales and related ads decreased 27,300 to 461,400. The supply/demand rate lies at 1.62, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

Office and administrative support ads decreased 16,500 to 482,100. The supply/demand rate lies at 1.51, i.e. over 1 unemployed job-seeker for every advertised available opening.

 

Food preparation and serving related ads decreased 7,700 to 223,200. The supply/demand rate for these occupations lies at 2.82, more than 2 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised available opening.

 

Installation, maintenance, and repair ads decreased 6,900 to 194,300. The supply/demand rate lies at 0.93, i.e. over 1 advertised opening per unemployed job-seeker..

 

(The August 2017 Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series will be released at 10:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 30, 2017).

 

 

U-6 Update

 

In July, 2017 the regular unemployment number fell one-tenth to 4.3%, and the broader U-6 measure remained at 8.6%, twice as high as the regular unemployment figure.

 

The above 8.6% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 year and over.

 

Here is a look at the July U-6 numbers for the past 14 years:

 

July 2016                     9.7%

July 2015                     10.4%

July 2014                     12.2%

July 2013                     13.9%

July 2012                     14.9%

July 2011                     16.1%

July 2010                     16.5%

July 2009                     16.4%

July 2008                     10.4%

July 2007                     8.3%

July 2006                     8.5%

July 2005                     8.9%

July 2004                     9.5%

July 2003                     10.3%

 

 

The July 2017 BLS Analysis

 

According to the July 2017 Employment Situation Summary, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor, the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July.

 

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On August 4th, 2017, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for July 2017 of 4.3% (actually it is 4.350% down by.007% from 4.357%, in June, 2017.

 

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 6,981,000 (–up from the month before by 4,000—since July, 2016 this number has decreased by 768,000) by the total civilian labor force of 160,494,000 (up by 349,000 from June, 2017).  Since July 2016, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,199,000 workers.

 

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total, this time to 255,151,000.  This is an increase of 194,000 from last month’s increase of 173,000.  In one year’s time, this population has increased by 1,531,000. The Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016—by…)

 

Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000
Up from August 2016 by 237,000
Up from July 2016 by 234,000
Up from June 2016 by 223,000
Up from May 2016 by 223,000
Up from April 2016 by 205,000
Up from March 2016 by 201,000
Up from February 2016 by 191,000
Up from January 2016 by 180,000
Up from December 2015 by 461,000
Up from November 2015 by 189,000
Up from October 2015 by 206,000
Up from September 2015 by 216,000
Up from August 2015 by 229,000
Up from July 2015 by 220,000
Up from June 2015 by 213,000
Up from May 2015 by 208,000
Up from April 2015 by 189,000
Up from March 2015 by 186,000
Up from February 2015 by 191,000
Up from January 2015 by 176,000
Up from December 2014 by 696,000
Up from November 2014 by 143,000
Up from October 2014 by 187,000
Up from September 2014 by 211,000
Up from August 2014 by 217,000
Up from July 2014 by 206,000
Up from June 2014 by 209,000
Up from May 2014 by 192,000
Up from April 2014 by 183,000
Up from March 2014 by 181,000
Up from February 2014 by 173,000
Up from January 2014 by 170,000
Up from December 2013 by 170,000
Up from November 2013 by 178,000
Up from October 2013 by 186,000
Up from September 2013 by 213,000
Up from August 2013 by 209,000
Up from July 2013 by 203,000
Up from June 2013 by 204,000
Up from May 2013 by 189,000
Up from April 2013 by 188,000
Up from March 2013 by 180,000
Up from February 2013 by 167,000
Up from January 2013 by 165,000
Up from December 2012 by 313,000
Up from November 2012 by 176,000
Up from October 2012 by 191,000
Up from September 2012 by 211,000
Up from August 2012 by 206,000
Up from July 2012 by 212,000
Up from June 2012 by 199,000
Up from May 2012 by 189,000
Up from April 2012 by 182,000
Up from March 2012 by 180,000
Up from February 2012 by 169,000
Up from January 2012 by 335,000
Up from December 2011 by 2,020,000

 

This month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 160,494,000 (up from June by 349,000).

 

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 94,657,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—down by 155,000 from last month’s 94,812,000.  In one year’s time, this NILF population has increased by 332,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is:  “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

 

This month our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose one-tenth of a point to 62.9%.  This is .5% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

 

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

 

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

 

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in July was 2.7% (this rate was .4% higher than last month’s 2.3%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in July was 2.4% (this was the same as last month’s 2.4%).

 

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

 

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg!

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

 

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

 

Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

On July 28th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 1.2% (revised). The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.  The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 30, 2017. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter reflected a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, acceleration in PCE, and an upturn in federal government spending.  These movements were partly offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment and decelerations in exports and in nonresidential fixed investment. Updates for the first quarter of 2017 For the first quarter of 2017, real GDP is now estimated to have increased 1.2%; in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDP was estimated to have increased 1.4%. The 0.2-percentage point downward revision to the percent change in first-quarter real GDP reflected downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, to private inventory investment, to residential fixed investment, and to federal government spending, and an upward revision to imports.  These movements were partly offset by upward revisions to PCE, to state and local government spending, and to exports. Three Update Releases to GDP BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  “advance” estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July.  Annual updates generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.  Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.

(The Second Quarter 2017 “Second” Estimate will be released on August 30th, 2017)

 

 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

 

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

 

There are five main sources of unemployment:

 

  1. Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle. It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

 

  1. Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force. This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

 

  1. Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location. This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

 

  1. Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year. Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

 

  1. Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions. When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

 

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

 

  1. Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a workers decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving. Currently, in 2017, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although eight states provide fewer weeks and one provides more. Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less desirable jobs.

 

  1. Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags behind the improvement in the GDP.

 

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

 

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

 

If you take a look at the past few years of unemployment in the July “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

 

July 2016                     3.0%

July 2015                     3.1%

July 2014                     3.5%

July 2013                     4.1%

July 2012                     4.8%

July 2011                     5.0%

July 2010                     5.0%

July 2009                     5.5%

July 2008                     2.9%

July 2007                     2.5%

July 2006                     2.5%

July 2005                     2.7%

July 2004                     3.1%

July 2003                     3.7%

July 2002                     3.5%

 

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

 

July 2016                     2.5%

July 2015                     2.5%

July 2014                     3.1%

July 2013                     3.8%

July 2012                     4.1%

July 2011                     4.3%

July 2010                     4.5%

July 2009                     4.7%

July 2008                     2.5%

July 2007                     2.1%

July 2006                     2.1%

July 2005                     2.4%

July 2004                     2.7%

July 2003                     3.1%

July 2002                     3.0%

 

The July 2017 rates for these two categories, 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively, are low again this month and are at or close to the halcyon numbers we attained in the 2006/2007 time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

 

 

 

 

Below are the numbers for the over 25 year olds:

 

 

 

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.7% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9%

 

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.3% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5%

 

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7%

 

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4%

 

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7%

 

Or employed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923

 

And unemployed…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656

 

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579

 

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%

 

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3%

 

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

 

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%

 

1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%

 

1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%

 

1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%

 

1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%

 

1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%

 

1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%

 

1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%

 

1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%

 

1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2%