BLS Analysis for October 2019

Bob Marshall’s October 2019 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 11/1/19

October BLS Preface

TBMG Coaching Updates and Product News:

Top Echelon, Tuesday Recruiter Coaching Series, Webinar, November 12th, 2019

My next Top Echelon webinar will be on Tuesday afternoon, November 12th, 2019, at 1pm, Eastern Time.

The title of the presentation is, “Planning for Your Best Year Ever in 2020, The ‘Atomic’ Approach” – The Overview, “Stress Systems Over Goals”.

“We are the creative force of our life, and through our own decisions rather than our conditions, if we carefully learn to do certain things, we can accomplish those goals.” –Stephen Covey

*The ‘Atomic’ Approach

1.  Stress Systems over Goals to Achieve Unprecedented Success; everyone has the same goals

2.  Your Systems are made up of Habits

3.  Get 1% better per day; small changes compound over time

4.  Winners often win because their environment makes winning easier

 Booklets Offer, $20 each

Booklet #3 – Now Available

“The JOB ORDER 2019” – The Booklet

(*Includes ‘The Job Order Matrix’)

Two years ago, I started sensing that a sea-change was starting to take over our recruitment industry.  Since then, it has only gotten more profound.

Do you mainly receive emails that focus only on the techniques, ways, ideas, strategies, etc., of how to attract prospective candidates?  Does it feel like you are constantly beaten over the head by the echo chamber mantra that we are in a candidate-poor environment?   That there are not enough candidates?   That if you are lucky enough to find them, they will never move for a new position?  And so, you must recruit, all of the time?  Never mind the quality of your JOs, the key nowadays is to find those recruits.  In my 40 years in the recruitment industry, I don’t believe I have ever seen it this one-sided before!

Now, while I agree that recruiting is a ‘critical’ function of what you do, so is marketing.  The big billers know this and that is why they pick up their phones and market everyday—and so should you!

In this series, I am going to be a lone voice in the wilderness and bring back some semblance of homeostasis to what you do for a living.  I am going to write, and share with you, six articles that address the other side of the equation.  The side that deals with the clients; you know…the folks who pay you!

This booklet version is now available for purchase at $20.  So, if you are interested, send me $20 (via snail mail—TBMG, 247 Bryans Drive, McDonough, GA 30252—or PayPal); and I will send the hardcopy booklet to your designated mailing address.

Still Available for $20

Booklet #1

“Robocruiter and The Total Account Executive” – The Booklet

Booklet #2

 “The Opportunity Cost in Not Quitting the Dead Horse Projects” – The Booklet

“The JOB ORDER 2019—A Six-Part Series”; October-November 2019

We began this series on October 1, 2019.  Here are the six topics and the release dates:

Tuesday, October 1 – Part One – The Qualifier Job Order

Tuesday, October 8 – Part Two – The Job Order Matrix (how to objectively score your JOs)

Tuesday, October 15 – Part Three – The Proper Hiring Manager Set-up

Tuesday, October 22 – Part Four – The Interview Sequencing

Tuesday, October 29 – Part Five – The Marketing Waterfall

Tuesday, November 5 – Part Six – The 11 Steps in Qualifying the JO as a Search Assignment

Norman Lieberman’s Resume Service, 949 707-4585

A longtime member of my distribution list, Norman Lieberman, MBA, who has successfully led his recruiting firm for 38 years has changed directions in a way that can help your candidates.  Recently, Norm won a battle with leukemia and is now focusing his energies toward revamping candidate resumes so that hiring managers sit up, take notice and move forward.  I have known Norm for many years now and can vouch for his intelligence and professionalism.  Should the need arise, consider giving him a shout out and discover how he can help your firm make more placements by being able to present stellar resumes that attract hiring managers to your candidates.

Norman’s phone number in California is 949 707-4585.

WHY A COACH?

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988, “A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear, who has you see what you don’t want to see, so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

So, for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb: When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January 2017

Preface

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

GDP Growth of 1.9% In Line with Q3 Forecast; Consumer Confidence Holds

Daily News, October 30, 2019

Growth in US real gross domestic product slowed to an annual rate of 1.9% in the third quarter, according to an advance estimate released today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Real GDP had increased 2.0% in the second quarter.

The Conference Board reported the 1.9% growth was in line with its forecast.

“Consumer spending was again the strongest driver of growth, following a very strong Q2 consumption growth of 4.6%,” according to The Conference Board.  “Consumer spending should continue to support growth, despite the weakness in business spending driven by high uncertainty in the global outlook.”

However, MarketWatch reported the 1.9% growth was better than expected; it reported economists had forecast a bigger decline to 1.6%.  It also noted there was little hint of recession.

US Workers’ Wages Rose by 3.2% in 3rd Quarter

Daily News, October 24, 2019

US workers’ wages rose by 3.2% year over year in the 3rd quarter, according to the ADP Research Institute’s Workforce Vitality Report.  The average was level was $28.71 per hour.

Those switching jobs saw their wages increase 5.1%.

“The labor market has shown signs of a slowdown.  After accelerating at the start of 2019, annual employment growth has leveled off to a modest 1.7% in September,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “While job switchers continue to enjoy wage growth of 5.1%, employers appear to have reached the limit of what they are willing to pay workers to entice them to switch jobs.”

Workers in the Midwest saw their wages grow the fastest in the third quarter, up 3.9% year over year, but their average hourly wage was the lowest at $26.76.  The West had the highest average hourly wage at $30.83; it was up 3.2%.

Information workers saw their average hour wage rise 2.7% in the third quarter to $41.92.  But job switchers in the information industry saw their hourly wages rise by 10.2% — the highest growth among all job switchers.

85% of Recruiters Say Candidates Exaggerate on Résumés

Daily News, October 23, 2019

A global survey of 1,700 recruiters by jobs website Monster found that 71% of recruiters struggle to fill positions because of candidate skills gaps, but 85% agree that candidates exaggerate skills and competencies on their résumés.

Only one-third of recruiters think candidates are honest about their skills through the job hiring process, according to the Monster survey.

Recruiters who are millennials are more likely to say candidates exaggerate skill competencies on their résumés, at 88%, than Gen X recruiters, at 83%.

In another finding in the Monster survey, 40% of recruiters globally said email was the best way to reach Gen Z candidates while 33% said social media was the best method.  However, when looking at responses from only recruiters in North America, 38% said text messaging was the most effective way to communicate with Gen Z; the response was 23% for recruiters in Europe.

Tech Skills Matter More Than Soft Skills in Legal Hiring

Daily News, October 16, 2019

In the legal field, hiring decisions are influenced more by candidates’ technical abilities than by the soft skills, according to 62% of legal employers in a survey by Robert Half Legal.

Respondents to the survey included 200 lawyers in the US who work full time at law firms with 20 or more employees or in corporate legal departments at companies with 1,000 or more employees.

The survey asked, “When evaluating professionals for open legal positions, which carries more weight: the candidate’s technical skills or his or her soft or nontechnical skills?”

In their responses, 19% said they place “much greater weight on technical skills” and 43% said they place “somewhat greater weight on technical skills” for the total of 62%.

While 30% were evenly split on the importance of tech skills and soft skills, just 8% placed somewhat greater weight on soft skills and only 1% placed much greater weight on soft skills.

The survey also found that cybersecurity ranked as the top area of tech that candidates need to be versed in with 48% of respondents picking it as a competency that candidates need.  It was followed by data analytics, with 43% of respondents citing this as an important area.

Qualified Talent Difficult to Retain, Survey Finds 75.5% Plan to Leave Within 5 Years

Daily News, October 14, 2019

Qualified talent is not only more difficult to recruit, but it’s also more difficult to retain, according to a survey by jobs platform iHire.

More than half of job seekers on its platform, 51.7%, left their jobs voluntarily in the past 5 years, and 75.5% said they planned to stay with their current employer no longer than 5 years.

The survey also found that 35% of employees have searched for a new job while on the clock, while another 7.5% said they preferred not to answer that question.

“Qualified talent has become difficult not only to recruit, but also to retain due to a job market with more open positions than people to fill them,” said Steve Flook, president and CEO of iHire.  “The possibility that a more rewarding career opportunity is out there is often too compelling for even the most tenured and loyal employee.”

In terms of job satisfaction, 59.9% were lukewarm, saying they were “somewhat satisfied” or “neither satisfied nor unsatisfied.”

Why are respondents interested in leaving their jobs?  The report found 16.9% cited unsatisfactory pay, and 11.7% said few growth opportunities.

The survey included 1,171 active and passive job seekers on iHire’s 56 talent communities.  The survey took place in August.

BLS Projects 6 of the 10 Fastest-Growing Occupations will be Healthcare and Social Assistance Related

Amy Chang, SIA, October 9, 2019

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Sept. 4 released updated employment projections for 2018 to 2028.  Overall US employment is projected to grow by 5.2%, or 8,400,000 jobs.  The healthcare and social assistance sector is expected to make up 40%, or 3,400,000, of the overall increase in employment.  The annual 1.6% growth rate is anticipated to be driven mainly by increased demand in healthcare services from an aging population and patients with chronic health conditions.

6 of the 10 fastest-growing occupations from 2018 to 2028 are expected to be healthcare and social assistance related.  Within the healthcare sector, home health aide employment is expected to grow the fastest (37%), followed by personal care aides (36%), occupational therapy assistants (33%), physician assistants (31%), nurse practitioners (28%) and speech language pathologists (27%).  Registered nurse employment is expected to grow 12% to 3,400,000.  Physical therapist employment is expected to increase 22% to 301,900 and physicians and surgeon employment is expected to grow 7% to 812,200.

In September 2019, the overall US unemployment rate was 3.5%, the lowest in a decade.  For the third quarter of 2019, the unemployment rate was lower for healthcare practitioners and technical occupations at 1.3% and healthcare support occupations at 3.3%.  The unemployment rate was also very low for physicians at 0.4%, registered nurses at 1.1% and physical therapists at 1.0%.

According to the BLS’ projections, employment mix by facility setting will continue to shift away from acute care hospitals towards non-acute care settings.  Although hospital employment is expected to grow 6% from 2018 to 2028, the overall mix of healthcare employment is projected to decline from 37% to 34% for hospitals during the timeframe.  Additionally, the mix of healthcare employment in other ambulatory healthcare settings is expected to increase from 19% to 20% and increase in the home health setting from 9% to 11% during that period.

SIA published its updated US Staffing Industry Forecast on Sept. 17. The healthcare staffing market is projected to grow 4% to $18,100,000,000 in 2020, driven by continued growth in national health expenditures forecasted by the CMS Office of the Actuary and continued cyclical expansion in the US economy.

73% Check Email after Work Hours: Hays

Daily News, October 10, 2019

Global staffing firm Hays plc reported today that 73% of professionals check their job email outside of work hours, citing data from a survey for more than 2,700 people across the globe.

Of those who check their email after work, the survey found that 54% say they do so in order to keep on top of their jobs, 34% said they wanted to make themselves available in case they are needed; 19% said they find it difficult to switch off from work and another 19% said they feel it is expected of them.

“Working outside of hours too often doesn’t allow employees to switch off from work,” said Sandra Henke, Hays group head of people and culture.  “If they fail to strike the right work life balance it could lead employees to feeling tired and less relaxed, even eventually leading to employee burnout.”

Hays also reported that 67% of those who check their emails after work do so once or twice an evening while 22% do so constantly.

Referrals: 78% of Staffing Firms have Bonus Programs for Referring Temporary Workers

Daily News, October 10, 2019

A majority of staffing firms, 78%, offer bonuses for referrals of temporary worker candidates, according to a report by Staffing Industry Analysts.

The research found the median bonus offered by professional staffing firms was $500 while the median offered by commercial staffing firms was less than $100.

A majority of firms also offered bonuses for referrals of direct-hire candidates.  These bonuses tended to be larger, with two-thirds of firms offering bonuses of at least $500.

“Staffing firms reported referral fees were earning high returns on investment, so for the minority of staffing firms not yet using them, I’d suggest giving them a shot,” said Jon Osborne, VP strategic research and author of the report.  “The data also suggested that optimal bonus amounts vary, as detailed in the report, by skill set and type of placement.”

It’s based on a survey of 441 North American staffing firms.

Nearly Half of Workers Quit a Job Because of a Bad Boss

Daily News, October 8, 2019

Nearly half of workers, 49%, have quit a job because of a bad boss, according to survey results released today by Robert Half International Inc.

“We’ve all heard horror stories about difficult managers — or experienced one firsthand,” said Paul McDonald, senior executive director for Robert Half.  “Work styles and how well a person gets along with their supervisor can determine whether someone decides to join or remain at a company.”

The survey included responses from more than 2,800 workers in 28 US cities.

Sacramento, California, had the highest percentage of employees leaving because of a bad boss at 66%.  It was followed by Miami and Tampa in Florida at 58% each.

The city with the lowest percentage of employees quitting because of a bad boss was Minneapolis at 36%.

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report: 65% of all new job growth in October 2019 came from Small and Medium-size Companies!

October 30, 2019

Private sector employment increased by 125,000 jobs from September to October (a 32,000 job increase from September’s downwardly ‘revised’ 93,000*), according to the October ADP National Employment Report®.  *The September total of jobs added was revised down from 135,000 to 93,000.

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

By Company Size

Small businesses:                  17,000

1-19 employees                   <-12,000>

20-49 employees                    30,000

Medium businesses:             64,000

50-499 employees                  64,000

Large businesses:                 44,000

500-999 employees                 10,000

1,000+ employees                   33,000

By Sector

I.  Goods-producing:                            <-13,000>

A.  Natural resources/mining                     <-4,000>

B.  Construction                                          <-4,000>

C.  Manufacturing                                       <-4,000>

II.  Service-providing:                            138,000

A.  Trade/transportation/utilities                    32,000

B.  Information                                                3,000

C.  Financial activities                                               17,000

D.  Professional/business services                 18,000

                        1.  Professional/technical services                              11,000

                        2.  Management of companies/enterprises                     4,000

                        3.  Administrative/support services                               3,000

            E.  Education/health services                         41,000

                        1.  Health care/social assistance                                  35,000

                        2.  Education                                                                  5,000

            F.  Leisure/hospitality                                    19,000

            G.  Other services                                             9,000

Franchise Employment

Franchise Jobs                        30,100

“While job growth continues to soften, there are certain segments of the labor market that remain strong,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “The goods producing sector showed weakness; however, the healthcare industry and midsized companies had solid gains.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth has throttled way back over the past year.  The job slowdown is most pronounced at manufacturers and small companies.  If hiring weakens any further, unemployment will begin to rise.”

(The November 2019 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on December 4, 2019.)

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

October 2019 Small Business Report Highlights

Total Small Business Employment:             17,000 (a 13,000 decrease)

●By Size    
►1-19 employees   <-12,000>
►20-49 employees   30,000
     
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees    
►Goods Producing   <-3,000>
►Service Producing   20,000
     
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees    
►Goods Producing   <-2,000>
►Service Producing   <-11,000>
     
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees    
►Goods Producing   <-2,000>
►Service Producing   31,000

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

Job Openings and Labor Turnover – August 2019

October 9, 2019

 
The number of job openings was little changed at 7,100,000 on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Over the month, hires edged down to 5,800,000 and separations were little changed to 5,600,000 million.  Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.3% and the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.2%.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions.
 
Job Openings
 
On the last business day of August, the job openings level was little changed at 7,100,000.  The job openings rate was 4.4%.  The number of job openings was little changed for total private and for government.  The job openings level decreased in nondurable goods manufacturing (-49,000) and in information (-47,000).  The number of job openings decreased in the Midwest region.
 
Hires
 
The number of hires edged down to 5,800,000 (-199,000) in August.  The hires rate was 3.8%.  The number of hires edged down for total private (-219,000) and was little changed for government.  The hires level increased in federal government (+35,000).  The number of hires decreased in the South region.
 
Separations
 
Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
 
The number of total separations was little changed at 5,600,000 in August.  The total separations rate was 3.7%.  The number of total separations was little changed for total private and for government.  The total separations level was little changed in all industries.  The number of total separations decreased in the Midwest region.
 
The number of quits decreased in August to 3,500,000 (-142,000).  The quits rate was 2.3%.  The quits level decreased for total private (-144,000) and was little changed for government.  Quits decreased in professional and business services (-76,000) and in other services (-67,000).  The number of quits decreased in the Midwest region.
 
The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in August at 1,800,000.  The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2%.  The layoffs and discharges level was little changed for total private and for government.  The number of layoffs and discharges increased in federal government (+3,000).  The layoffs and discharges level was little changed in all 4 regions.
 
The number of other separations was little changed in August.  The other separations level was also little changed for total private and for government.  Other separations increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+3,000).  The number of other separations was little changed in all 4 regions.
 
Net Change in Employment
 
Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle.  Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.   When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.  Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in August, hires totaled 69,500,000 and separations totaled 67,100,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,400,000.  These totals include 
workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
____________
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for September 2019 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, November 8, 2019 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).
 
 

As we recruiters know, that 7,100,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.  So, those 7,100,000 published job openings now become a total of 35,500,000 published AND hidden job orders.

In October, there were 5,855,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 5,855,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace continues to flourish!

Online Labor Demand Fell in September

October 9, 2019

*HWOL Index fell in August, following a small increase in August

*All regions and most states declined

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in September and now stands at 103.0 (July 2018=100), down from 104.4 in August.  The Index declined 1.3% from the prior month but is up 0.8% from a year ago.  

In the Midwest, North Dakota decreased 3.5% and Ohio decreased 1.9%.  In the Northeast, Maine fell 4.9% and New York decreased 2.0%.  In the South, North Carolina fell 3.1% and Louisiana decreased 2.6%.  In the West, Wyoming declined 4.6% and Hawaii decreased 4.2%.

The Professional occupational category experienced declines in Education (-3.4%), Legal (-2.5%), and Business and Finance (-1.9%).  The Services/Production occupational category fell in Protective Services (-4.8%), Office and Administrative Support (-2.3%).

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index measures changes over time in advertised online job vacancies, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US.  The HWOL Data Series aggregates the total number of ads available by month from the HWOL universe of online job ads.  Ads in the HWOL universe are collected in real-time from over 28,000 different online job boards including traditional job boards, corporate boards, social media sites, and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board’s long-running Help Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which was published for over 55 years and discontinued in July 2008), Help Wanted OnLine™ measures help wanted advertising, i.e. labor demand.  The HWOL Data Series began in May 2005 and was revised in December 2018 to reflect a new universe and methodology of online job advertisements and therefore cannot be used in conjunction with the pre-revised HWOL Data Series.  With the December 2018 release, The Conference Board released the experimental HWOL Index for the specific purpose of providing a robust time series for measuring changes in labor demand over time.  It improves upon the HWOL Data Series’ ability to assess local labor market trends by reducing volatility and non-economic noise and improving correlation with local labor market conditions.  Both the HWOL Data Series and the experimental HWOL Index begin in January 2012.

The next release is Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 10 AM.

U-6 Update

In October 2019 the regular unemployment rate rose .1% to 3.6% and the broader U-6 measure also rose .1% to 7.0%.

The above 7.0% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

Here is a look at the October U-6 numbers for the previous 16 years:

October 2018              7.4%

October 2017              8.0%

October 2016              9.5%

October 2015              9.8%

October 2014              11.5%

October 2013              13.7%

October 2012              14.5%

October 2011              16.0%

October 2010              17.0%

October 2009              17.4%

October 2008              12.0%

October 2007              8.4%

October 2006              8.1%

October 2005              8.6%

October 2004              9.7%

October 2003              10.2%

The October 2019 BLS Analysis

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 128,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.6%.  Notable job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, social assistance, and financial activities.  Within manufacturing, employment in motor vehicles and parts decreased due to strike activity.  Federal government employment was down, reflecting a drop in the number of temporary jobs for the 2020 Census.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up by 51,000 from +168,000 to +219,000, and the change for September was revised up by 44,000 from +136,000 to +180,000.  With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 95,000 more than previously reported.  (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)  After revisions, job gains have averaged 176,000 per month over the last 3 months.

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On November 1st, 2019, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for October 2019 of 3.6% (actually, it is 3.562% up by .045% from 3.517% in September 2019.

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 5,855,000 (–down from the month before by 86,000—since October 2018 this number has decreased by 257,000) by the total civilian labor force of 164,364,000 (up by 325,000 from September 2019).  Since October 2018, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,670,000 workers.

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total to 259,845,000.  This is an increase of 207,000 from last month’s increase of 206,000.  In one year, this population has increased by 1,331,000. For the last 3 years the Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016 & December 2018—by…)

Up from September 2019 by 207,000
Up from August 2019 by 206,000
Up from July 2019 by 207,000
Up from June 2019 by 188,000
Up from May 2019 by 176,000
Up from April 2019 by 168,000
Up from March 2019 by 156,000
Up from February 2019 by 145,000
Up from January 2019 by 153,000
Down from December 2018 by 649,000
Up from November 2018 by 180,000
Up from October 2018 by 194,000
Up from September 2018 by 224,000
Up from August 2018 by 224,000
Up from July 2018 by 223,000
Up from June 2018 by 201,000
Up from May 2018 by 188,000
Up from April 2018 by 182,000
Up from March 2018 by 175,000
Up from February 2018 by 163,000
Up from January 2018 by 154,000
Up from December 2017 by 671,000
Up from November 2017 by 160,000
Up from October 2017 by 183,000
Up from September 2017 by 204,000
Up from August 2017 by 205,000
Up from July 2017 by 206,000
Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000

This month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 164,364,000 (up from August by 325,000).

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 95,481,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—down by 118,000 from last month’s 95,599,000.  In one year, this NILF population has decreased by 340,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose .1% to 63.3%.  This is .9% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in October was 1.8% (this rate was .1% lower than last month’s 1.9%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in October was 2.1% (this rate was .1% higher than last month’s 2.0%).

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg! 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

 
On October 30th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in the third quarter of 2019, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.0%.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.  The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 27, 2019.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and exports that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected decelerations in PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, and a larger decrease in nonresidential fixed investment.  These movements were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, and upturns in exports and in residential fixed investment.

Updates to GDP

The second-quarter percent change in real GDP was the same as previously estimated. Downward revisions to PCE and nonresidential fixed investment were primarily offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and exports, and a downward revision to imports.

 
Three Update Releases to GDP
 
BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  "Advance" estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available.
 

*          *          *

 
(GDP, Third Quarter 2019 “Second Estimate” will be released on 
November 27, 2019 @ 8:30AM EDT)
 
 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

There are five main sources of unemployment:

1.  Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall, and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

2.  Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

3.  Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

4.  Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

5.  Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

1.  Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a worker’s decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Currently, in 2019, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program.  One state (MT) offers more and ten states offer less.  Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less-desirable jobs.

2.  Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags the improvement in the GDP.

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

If you look at the past 19 years of unemployment in the October “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

October 2018              1.9%

October 2017              2.1%

October 2016              2.5%

October 2015              2.2%

October 2014              2.7%

October 2013              3.4%

October 2012              3.8%

October 2011              4.4%

October 2010              4.5%

October 2009              4.7%

October 2008              3.0%

October 2007              2.0%

October 2006              1.9%

October 2005              2.2%

October 2004              2.4%

October 2003              2.9%

October 2002              2.8%

October 2001              2.7%

October 2000              1.7%

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

October 2018              2.0%

October 2017              2.0%

October 2016              2.6%

October 2015              2.5%

October 2014              3.0%

October 2013              3.8%

October 2012              3.7%

October 2011              4.4%

October 2010              4.7%

October 2009              4.7%

October 2008              3.1%

October 2007              2.1%

October 2006              1.9%

October 2005              2.3%

October 2004              2.5%

October 2003              3.1%

October 2002              3.0%

October 2001              2.7%

October 2000              1.6%

The October 2019 rates for these two categories, 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, are very low again this month and are at, or close to, the halcyon numbers we attained in 2017-2018 and in the 2000 & 2005-2007 time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

Below are the numbers for the over 25-year old’s:

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.3% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7% 5.2% 6.3%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
5.4% 5.7% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 5.1% 5.7% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 5.8%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
5.7% 5.3% 5.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.1% 5.4% 4.8% 5.6%    

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 3.8%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7%    

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9%    

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1%    

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8%    

Or employed…(,000)

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923 59,559 60,990 61,062 61,818 62,121
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
62,123 62,908 63,067 62,561 62,360 61,349 61,433 61,593 62,181 62,929 63,084 63,642
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
63,818 64,281 64,299 63,560 63,594 63,418 63,394 63,679 64,343 64,997    

And unemployed…(,000)

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656 1,731 1,463 1,285 1,266 1,290
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
1,374 1,301 1,310 1,134 1,083 1,575 1,539 1,591 1,299 1,246 1,330 1,368
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
1,607 1,317 1,289 1,040 1,086 1,540 1,591 1,476 1,235 1,161    

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579 61,290 62,453 62,347 63,084 63,411
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
63,497 64,209 64,377 63,695 63,443 62,924 62,972 63,184 63,480 64,175 64,414 65,010
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
65,425 65,598 65,588 64,600 64,680 64,958 64,985 65,155 65,578 66,158    

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7%    

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 2.1% 1.8%    

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
4.5% 5.0% 4.6% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4%