BLS Analysis for Recruiters May 2020 – 6 articles

Bob Marshall’s May 2020 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 6/5/20

The 6 May Articles…

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Employees More Confident They Will Retain Jobs, But Productivity Hasn’t Recovered to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Daily News, June 2. 2020

Employees grew more confident in their ability to retain their jobs even as the Covid-19 pandemic wore on, according to the ADP Research Institute, which conducted surveys of employees during the first 8 weeks of the pandemic.

Employees were most concerned about losing their jobs in the 3rd week.  However, 70% of workers in the last 2 weeks of the survey expected they would retain their job for at least the next month.

However, productivity does not appear to have recovered to pre-pandemic levels, according to the ADP Research Institute.  Working hours, the frequency of communication with others and the ability to complete tasks declined quickly and did not bounce back.

Other survey findings:

*17% of workers were required to work from home in the 1st week and rising to 1-in-4 during the 2nd week.

*In the 1st few weeks of the crisis, stress levels were high as workers struggled with childcare, fear of the virus, technical issues and trouble completing their tasks.  By week 3 and 4, these issues became less likely to impact their work.  Some elements such as stress, work-life balance and ability to connect with others did not improve, but they became less impactful on their work.

*62% of those who retained their jobs said the pandemic has had a negative impact on their personal finances or they expect it to.

Only 10% of Employers Expect COVID-19 Layoffs to be Permanent

Daily News, May 27, 2020

Two-thirds of employers took some action in March and April that negatively impacted employee pay, including layoffs and furloughs, according to data released today by

66% of employers surveyed either reduced their workforce or employee pay in response to Covid-19; however, only 10% of respondents expect the layoffs to be permanent.

The survey found 32% of employers laid people off (temporary or permanent), 10% reduced base pay, and 21% reduced variable pay (including bonuses and commissions).  In addition to the expectation that 90% of layoffs may be temporary, 65% of employers reported that base pay remained unchanged and 45% said they are leaving merit raises in place in 2020.

Industries that were hit the hardest by the economic downturn — such as retail (brick and mortar), manufacturing, nonprofits and healthcare — were more likely to take multiple negative actions that affected employee pay.  For all industries, 20% of employers eliminated planned merit raises for 2020 and another 24% are postponing merit increases.

The survey, fielded in mid-April, included 1,176 people working in compensation or total rewards roles within HR.

Majority of Americans Won’t Consider Changing Jobs Amid COVID-19 if They Can Continue Working at Current Positions

Daily News, May 21, 2020

Will employed Americans consider a job change during the pandemic?  A survey of 993 full-time and part-time US workers by staffing provider Yoh found that 78% would not as long as they can continue to work at their current job.

One reason: 69% say they don’t think they would be able to find a new job during the Covid-19 crisis.

The survey also found that 72% of those ages 35-54 don’t think they would be able to find a new job during the pandemic.  Those ages 18 to 24 were a bit more optimistic with 67% saying they don’t think they would be able to find another job while among those ages 55 and up, 65% didn’t think they would be able to find another job.

“While many Americans are rightfully wary about changing jobs during such an uncertain time, hiring can and does happen,” said Emmett McGrath, president of Yoh.  “However, it does require expert recruitment process and employers who take the steps to show workers the value they have on the business’s success.”

Other findings in the survey included:

*69% of those 44 and younger vs. 55% of those 45 and older would consider changing jobs during the pandemic if they felt their current company was not doing enough to protect their employees.

*60% of those 44 and younger vs. 42% of those 45 and older would consider changing jobs during the crisis to work for a company that is actively making a difference to help the situation.

*56% of those 44 and younger vs. 36% of those 45 and older say working in the current Covid-19 crisis has made them reconsider if they are in the right job.

The survey was conducted online for Yoh by The Harris Poll.

IT Sheds 45,800 Jobs in April, But Still Fares Better Than Overall Job Market

Daily News, May 18, 2020

IT employment in the US posted its largest single drop in April since March 2009, according to an analysis by the TechServe Alliance, the national trade association of IT and engineering staffing.  The number of IT jobs fell by 45,800 from the previous month, a decrease of 0.86%, to a total of 5,300,000 jobs.

On a year-over-year basis, the number of jobs was down by 43,600.

TechServe Alliance CEO Mark Roberts said despite the largest loss in IT jobs since the Great Recession, it wasn’t as bad as the 13.5% loss in the total job market.

“The one-month decline experienced by the labor markets is nothing short of breathtaking.  Unfortunately, given the extent of the economic damage inflicted by the Covid-19 crisis, significant future job losses lie ahead,” Roberts said.  “While there are few silver linings in the jobs picture, IT, and to a lesser extent engineering, will continue to fare better than the overall workforce.”

The TechServe Alliance also noted the number of engineering jobs fell by 6.7% in April to a total of 2,500,000 jobs.  It was the largest decline since the organization began its engineering jobs index.

Year over year, engineering jobs were down 5.5%.

US Could Add 2,300,000 Jobs Per Month When Recovery Begins in Q3

Daily News, May 15, 2020

A US economic recovery should start in the 3rd quarter, with the job gains averaging 2,300,000 per month.  That was the median forecast in the Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Real gross domestic product is expected to grow by 10.6% on an annualized basis in the 3rd quarter as well, according to the median forecast in the report.

Overall, the forecasters expect recovery to occur over the next 4 quarters.

In comparison, the median forecast for the 2nd (current) quarter calls for a contraction in real GDP of 32.2%.  Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, the previous estimate for growth had been 2.1% for the 2nd quarter.

Almost 40% of Recruiters Expect to see Hiring Increases within 90 Days; Healthcare Recruiters Most Optimistic

Healthcare Staffing Report, May 13, 2020

While the unemployment rate and out-of-work contractors have taken an immediate toll on the economy, more than 38% of surveyed recruiters expect to see increases in job requisitions within 90 days, according to the Recruiter Index released by  And more than 22% expect those results to start in as little as 30 days.

Meanwhile, 17% expect no change.

Healthcare recruiters are among the most optimistic: 45.5% predict increased job order loads in the next 30 days, and 54.5% predict increased hiring in the next 90 days. is a website that links job seekers, recruiters and employers.  The index gathers data from its network of more than 20,000 small and independent recruiters to uncover critical insights into where hiring is heading.

Other key trends from the Recruiter Index include:

*The immediate outlook is also positive for recruiters in internet/other information services: 50% predict increased job requisition loads in the next 30 days.

*66% of the recruiters in financial services expect demand to increase or return to normal in the next 90 days.

*Even recruiters in hard-hit industries are more optimistic than one might expect: One-third of recruiters in food/beverage expect job requisition loads to increase within 90 days.