BLS Analysis for August 2019

Bob Marshall’s August 2019 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 9/6/19

August BLS Preface

TBMG Coaching Updates and Product News:

 Booklets Offer, $20 each

Booklet #1

“Robocruiter and The Total Account Executive” – The Booklet

During the release of this weekly series to my distribution list, I had been asked if I would make available the complete 11-part series in one single booklet format for purchase.  The idea being that it could then be read and studied at your convenience and you wouldn’t have to deal with a computer to do that.  That booklet version is now available for purchase at $20.  So, if you are interested, send me $20 (via snail mail—TBMG, 247 Bryans Drive, McDonough, GA 30252—or PayPal); and I will send the hardcopy booklet to your designated mailing address.

Booklet #2

 “The Opportunity Cost in Not Quitting the Dead Horse Projects” – The Booklet

NEW…During the release of my first booklet, “Robocruiter and The Total Account Executive”, I was asked if I would also make available the current series, “The Opportunity Cost in Not Quitting the Dead Horse Projects”, in a similar single booklet format for purchase.  The idea being again that it could then be read and studied at your convenience and you wouldn’t have to deal with a computer to do that.  That booklet version, comprised of the complete 11-part series, is now available for purchase at $20.  So, if you are interested, send me $20 (via snail mail—TBMG, 247 Bryans Drive, McDonough, GA 30252—or PayPal); and I will send the hardcopy booklet to your designated mailing address.

“The Opportunity Cost in Not Quitting the Dead Horse Projects—An Eleven-Part Series”; July-September 2019

We began this series on July 16, 2019.  Here are the eleven topics and the release dates:

July 16 – Part One – The Opportunity Cost, The Dip & The Dip Silver Lining

July 23 – Part Two – When to Quit

July 30 – Part Three – Quitting is Not the Same as Failing & The Fallacy of Diversification

August 6 – Part Four – The Motivation of Pain

August 13 – Part Five – Establish Your Identity in Your Niche

August 20 – Part Six – “Dead Horses” & 5 Reasons Why “Horse Beating” Occurs

August 27 – Part Seven – 9 Signs of a “Dead Horse” Employer

September 3 – Part Eight – 11 Ways to Eliminate “Dead Horse” Employers by Establishing Cooperation

September 10 – Part Nine – 10 Signs of a “Dead Horse” Candidate

September 17 – Part Ten – 11 Ways to Eliminate “Dead Horse” Candidates by Establishing Cooperation

September 24 – Part Eleven – The Principle of the 1500 Company Contacts & The Resultant Warm Call Marketplace

National Association of Personnel Consultants (NAPS), 2019 Annual Conference, Hyatt Regency Hill Country Resort & Spa, San Antonio, TX, September 22-24, 2019

As many of you know, I am speaking at the NAPS 2019 Annual Conference at the Hyatt Regency Hill Country Resort & Spa in San Antonio, TX on Monday morning, September 23rd, 2019, from 10:00 to 11:15am.  The title of my presentation is, “The Total Account Executive – How to Find, Hire, Train and Retain Them”.

So, since I will be there anyway, for those of you in Texas—especially in the San Antonio/Houston/Austin area, if you are interested in my in-office training (formal presentations like, “Your Desk as a Manufacturing Plant”, How to Train a Recruiter to Bill over $1MM Per Year”, etc.; individual and desk-level coaching) and are available for that training during the latter part of September, let me know.  I will customize a training program just for your office with a substantial discount and without any expenses for travel.

Let me know if you have an interest as I will be making my flight arrangements shortly.

Norman Lieberman’s Resume Service, 949 707-4585

A longtime member of my distribution list, Norman Lieberman, MBA, who has successfully led his recruiting firm for 38 years has changed directions in a way that can help your candidates.  Recently, Norm won a battle with leukemia and is now focusing his energies toward revamping candidate resumes so that hiring managers sit up, take notice and move forward.  I have known Norm for many years now and can vouch for his intelligence and professionalism.  Should the need arise, consider giving him a shout out and discover how he can help your firm make more placements by being able to present stellar resumes that attract hiring managers to your candidates.

Norman’s phone number in California is 949 707-4585.

WHY A COACH?

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988, “A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear, who has you see what you don’t want to see, so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

So, for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb: When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January 2017

Preface

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

Job Satisfaction Jumps: The Conference Board

Daily News, August 29, 2019

Americans are feeling better about their jobs than they have in years, according to a survey released today by The Conference Board.

More than half of US workers, 53.7% are satisfied with their jobs, according to The Conference Board Job Satisfaction survey.  This is up from 51.7% in the prior year and marks the second-biggest increase in the survey’s 32-year history.  An improved labor market has played the main role in boosting job satisfaction, which has risen in each of the past 8 years.

Other survey results include:

*Job security soars.  Survey participants ranked 23 components influencing satisfaction.  Job security saw the biggest improvement, increasing by 5% from the prior year.

*Wage satisfaction surges among millennials.  Satisfaction regarding wages rose 9.8% among those aged 35 and under.  However, workers in their peak earning years — those between 33 and 54 — remain most satisfied.

*Highest satisfaction with job aspects chosen by the employee.  Workers are most pleased with their commute to work, followed by the people at work, interest in work, physical environment, job security and supervisor.

*Lowest satisfaction with a job’s economic aspects.  Workers are least satisfied with their bonus plan, followed by promotion policy, performance review process, educational/job training programs, recognition/acknowledgement and communication channels.

“In today’s strong jobs market, people are quitting their current positions at the fastest pace in over two decades,” said Gad Levanon, an author of the report and The Conference Board’s chief economist for North America.  “It’s one of the many signs that illustrate improved opportunities for workers.  They now have more leverage when it comes to increasing their paychecks and finding jobs that better align with their interests and skills.”

The survey included approximately 2,000 workers throughout the US.

Majority Prefer In-Person Job Interviews Over Virtual: Yoh Survey

Daily News, August 28, 2019

A majority of US adults, 62%, would prefer an in-person job interview over a virtual job interview, according to survey data released today by staffing firm Yoh. College grads and those with household incomes of more than $100,000 were more likely to prefer in-person interviews.

Among college grads, 68% would prefer in-person interviews compared to 57% of those with a high school diploma or less.

In addition, 69% of those earning more than $100,000 per year would prefer an in-person interview compared to 57% of those in households earning less than $75,000.

“In this technological era, companies are consistently finding faster, better ways to streamline the recruitment process and open the door to a wider range of hiring opportunities,” Yoh President Emmett McGrath said.  “But Americans’ skepticism of virtual interviews highlights the need for human interaction throughout the recruitment and hiring process.”

Virtual interviews in the survey include all types of technology-assisted interview methods outside of in-person interviews.

Why do people prefer in-person interviews?  The survey found:

*59% said in-person interviews would be the only way to truly judge a new job opportunity

*37% said virtual interviews would limit the connection with the interviewer

*17% said virtual job interviews would offer too many opportunities for technical difficulties

*16% cited other reasons

Yoh’s online survey included responses from 2,015 US adults ages 18 and older and took place from July 30 to Aug. 1.

Finance Execs Say Tech Skills Hardest to Find When Hiring: Robert Half

Daily News, August 22, 2019

Technology experience and aptitude top the list of most difficult attributes to find in accounting and finance job candidates, according to a survey of US CFOs released today by Robert Half Finance & Accounting.

CFOs cited the following attributes as the hardest to find in accounting and finance job candidates:

*Technology experience or aptitude: 32%

*Functional job skills: 21%

*Leadership abilities: 18%

*Soft skills, e.g., interpersonal or communication skills: 16%

*Organizational culture fit: 12%

One area of expertise in high demand is business analytics; 37% of CFOs said these skills are mandatory for all accounting and finance positions, and another 49% reported they are mandatory for some roles.  The survey findings also suggest employers are taking steps to address the need: 91% of respondents’ firms provide related professional development opportunities.

In a separate Jobs and AI Anxiety report, Robert Half found finance managers cited big data and advanced analytics among the top three currently used technologies, following cloud-based systems and mobile applications.  In addition to the 42% of finance and accounting functions currently using analytical tools, such as predictive analytics, another 27% expect to use them within the next three years.

“Neither the demand for technology skills nor the lack of them available is going away soon,” said Steve Saah, executive director of Robert Half Finance & Accounting.  “By providing professional development on new and emerging tools, companies can upskill their existing teams and make themselves more attractive employers.”

The online surveys were developed by Robert Half and conducted by independent research firms.  The CFO survey includes responses from more than 1,100 CFOs at companies in the US with 20 or more employees.  The survey for the Jobs and AI Anxiety report includes responses from 250 accounting and finance managers in US.

Nearly Half of US Adults Have Layoff Anxiety: Survey

Daily News, August 16, 2019

Nearly half of Americans, 48%, experience anxiety over possible layoffs, according to survey results released today by CareerArc, a social recruiting and on-demand outplacement platform.

Of those who experienced anxiety, 34% cited fears over a possible recession, 32% cited rumors around the office and 30% say a recent round of workplace layoffs is the cause.

Job loss is not uncommon, according to CareerArc’s poll.  It found 40% have been terminated or laid off at least once.

Other findings in the survey:

*61% of those ages 18-34 suffer from layoff anxiety as compared to 41% of those ages 35 and above.

*54% of women surveyed don’t feel prepared for a layoff as compared to 41% of men.

*39% of employed women who suffer from layoff anxiety cite fear of pending recession as the #1 cause of their layoff anxiety versus 29% of men in the same group.

*Men are more likely than women to have ever been laid off or terminated, with 45% of men having lost a job as compared to 36% of women.

*64% of Americans with college degrees or higher have never been laid off as compared to 48% of Americans with some college and 47% of those with a high school degree or less.

*Younger, less experienced workers may face more challenges finding or switching jobs during a recession.  Gen Z and millennial employees — 23% of those aged 18-34 and 19% of those aged 35-44 — were about twice as likely to experience difficulty in finding/switching jobs during the Great Recession than those ages 45-54 (11%) and 55-64 (9%).

The survey included responses from 2,024 adults ages 18 and older in the US, of which 1,062 were employed.

43% of Professionals Plan to Seek New Job Over Next 12 Months: Survey

Daily News, August 12, 2019

Over the next 12 months, 43% of professionals plan to look for a new job, according to survey data released by Robert Half International Inc. on Thursday.

What would entice workers to stay?  Money topped the list with 43% saying more money would get them to stay, according to the survey results.  And 20% would stay for more time off/benefits, 19% would stay if promoted, and 8% would stay if they had a new boss.  However, for 10%, nothing would get them to stay.

Cities with the highest percentage of workers planning to look for a new job included Sacramento, California; Miami; Austin, Texas; and Denver.

On the other hand, senior managers were asked about what retentions strategies they were using.  Those most commonly cited included increasing communication with staff, improving employee recognition programs and offering professional development.

The surveys took place in April and included more than 2,800 workers in office environments in 28 major US cities and more than 2,800 senior managers at companies with 20 or more employees.

The Economy Isn’t Just Adding Jobs.  It’s Adding Good Ones

Bloomberg Opinion, Conor Sen, August 6, 2019

Employment growth in the low-paid sectors of retail and hospitality is fading, but higher-paid knowledge work is in demand. There’s room to grow at the high end of the labor market.

Even if the rate of U.S. job growth is slowing this year, there’s encouraging news hidden in that overall number.

A large chunk of the deceleration is attributable to a near halt in the growth of lower-paid jobs, despite those positions continuing to show strong wage growth – a sign that perhaps for lower-paid workers we are seeing dynamics approaching full employment.  At the same type, the continued steady growth in higher-paid knowledge jobs should embolden those who believe this expansion can continue for quite a while longer.  And along the way, more Americans in both categories are finding decent-paying jobs.

When people talk about the labor market slowing, what they’re really referring to is the past 6 months.  The recent peak in the year-over-year pace in jobs growth occurred in January at 2,820,000.  Since then it has slowed somewhat, largely shown in the weak jobs reports in February and May, in which both months resulted in fewer than 100,000 jobs being added in the economy.

But as the economic cycle has become more advanced, the composition of the labor market continues to change.  Nowhere is this more evident than in the lowest-paid industries – retail and leisure/hospitality.  From January 2011 through January 2019, those 2 industries added on average 600,000 jobs per year, or 50,000 per month, with the pace of growth beginning to slow noticeably in 2017.  In the past 6 months, however, those industries have shown no growth.  If they had grown at a similar pace as they did in 2017 or 2018, overall job growth would have shown very little deceleration.

This Might Worry You …

Employment in retail and leisure/hospitality has almost flatlined.

Some might think that the halt in job growth here might be a sign of looming economic weakness, but wage growth for both industries remains robust, driven both by a tight labor market for low-wage service workers and by minimum wage hikes around the country.  Martha Gimbel, a research director at Indeed, notes that wage growth for low-paid workers continues to accelerate and outpace wage growth for higher-paid workers.

And for well-paid knowledge workers in the professional and business services sector, which employs over 21,000,000 people, job growth remains steady, continuing to chug along at a growth rate of around 40,000 per month, much like it has for the past 5 years.  Gimbel notes that while middle-wage job growth has slowed a bit, likely due to weakness in the global economy impacting the manufacturing sector, job growth for middle and high-paying jobs continues to outpace job growth for lower-paid jobs.

… Unless You Saw This as Well

High-paying employment in professional and business services is growing well.

This means labor market dynamics still support above-trend growth; it’s just that the nature of the growth may have to change.  The continued rise in wages for lower-paid workers combined with low levels of people seeking work who are not already working may mean that lower-paid jobs are no longer a significant driver of overall employment growth.

But these dynamics are not appearing in the better-paying sectors.  Despite employer complaints of labor market shortages, there still seem to be plenty of workers willing to take good-paying jobs without overall wage growth for those workers exceeding 2-3%.  Tens of millions of lower-paid workers could train for those jobs and would undoubtedly be willing to leave a job paying $12 an hour for one paying much more than that.

For the entirety of this expansion, policymakers have been focused on finding jobs for the unemployed, and for drawing people back into the labor force.  As more measures of labor market slack hit generational or multi-decade lows, the emphasis should shift to a different kind of slack: the people who are employed but could be doing more productive, better-paying jobs if they were given the opportunity.

The slowing overall rate of job growth shouldn’t spook policy makers.  Until we see an acceleration in wage growth for higher-paid workers and inflation, there’s no reason we can’t continue to push for a stronger economy and labor market.

Tech Employment Rises by 11,400 Jobs in July Despite Telecom Losses: CompTIA

Daily News, August 5, 2019

Technology employment in the US rose by an estimated 11,400 jobs in July even as telecom companies eliminated some 5,100 positions, according to an analysis by tech industry association CompTIA.

“Despite the telecom losses and some softness in job posting data, it was a reasonably solid month for tech,” said Tim Herbert, executive VP for research and market intelligence at CompTIA.  “Digital transformation is an ongoing process, where the mix of investment, skills requirements and business alignment are never static.”

CompTIA, which examined data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation report, found that July was solid month of hiring in technology services, custom software development and computer systems design.  Hiring in these areas offset losses in telecom.

It noted telecom has experienced 9 consecutive months of employment decline and an estimated 22,800 jobs have been eliminated.  Without telecom losses, the tech industry job growth for the year would total 98,000 positions.

Looking ahead, based on job ads, software and application developer positions continue to be the most in-demand occupation with 78,000 job postings in July.  Next highest was computer user support specialists with 20,100 ads.  Rounding out the top five most in-demand are computer systems engineers and architects, 16,800 job ads; computer systems analysts, 15,000 ads; and web developers, 13,500 ads.

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report: 73% of all new job growth in August 2019 came from Small and Medium-size Companies!

September 5, 2019

Private sector employment increased by 195,000 jobs from July to August (a 53,000 job increase from July’s downwardly ‘revised’ 142,000*), according to the August ADP National Employment Report®.  *The July total of jobs added was revised down from 156,000 to 142,000.

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

By Company Size

Small businesses:                  66,000

1-19 employees                      26,000

20-49 employees                    40,000

Medium businesses:             77,000

50-499 employees                  77,000

Large businesses:                 52,000

500-999 employees                   5,000

1,000+ employees                   47,000

By Sector

I.  Goods-producing:                                 11,000

A.  Natural resources/mining                     <-2,000>

B.  Construction                                              6,000

C.  Manufacturing                                           8,000

II.  Service-providing:                            184,000

A.  Trade/transportation/utilities                    39,000

B.  Information                                            <-6,000>

C.  Financial activities                                                 5,000

D.  Professional/business services                 35,000

                        1.  Professional/technical services                                20,000

                        2.  Management of companies/enterprises                       3,000

                        3.  Administrative/support services                               12,000

            E.  Education/health services                          58,000

                        1.  Health care/social assistance                                    45,000

                        2.  Education                                                                  13,000

            F.  Leisure/hospitality                                      42,000

            G.  Other services                                             11,000

Franchise Employment

Franchise Jobs                        17,200

“In August we saw a rebound in private-sector employment,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “This is the first time in the last 12 months that we have seen balanced job growth across small, medium and large-sized companies.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Businesses are holding firm on their payrolls despite the slowing economy.  Hiring has moderated, but layoffs remain low.  As long as this continues, recession will remain at bay.”

(The September 2019 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on October 2, 2019.)

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

August 2019 Small Business Report Highlights

Total Small Business Employment:             66,000 (a 55,000 increase)

●By Size    
►1-19 employees       26,000
►20-49 employees   40,000
     
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees    
►Goods Producing   1,000
►Service Producing   65,000
     
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees    
►Goods Producing   <-1,000>
►Service Producing   27,000
     
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees    
►Goods Producing   2,000
►Service Producing   38,000

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

Job Openings and Labor Turnover – June 2019

August 6, 2019

 
The number of job openings was unchanged at 7,300,000 on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5,700,000 and 5,500,000 respectively.  Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3%, and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.1%.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions.
 
Job Openings
 
On the last business day of June, the job openings level was little changed at 7,300,000.  The job openings rate was 4.6%.  The number of job openings was little changed for total private and for government.  The job openings level increased in real estate and rental and leasing (+38,000) as well as state and local government education (+20,000).  The number of job openings was little changed in all 4 regions.
 
Hires
 
The number of hires was little changed at 5,700,000 in June.  The hires rate was 3.8%.  The number of hires was little changed for total private and for government.  Hires increased in accommodation and food services (+76,000). The number of hires was little changed in all 4 regions. 
 
Separations
 
Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
 
The number of total separations was little changed at 5,500,000 in June.  The total separations rate was 3.6%.  The number of total separations was little changed for total private and for government.  The total separations level increased in accommodation and food services (+101,000).  The number of total separations was little changed in all 4 regions.
 
The number of quits was little changed in June at 3,400,000.  The quits rate was 2.3%.  The quits level was little changed for total private and decreased for government 
(-19,000).  Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-35,000) and state and local government, excluding education (-14,000), but increased in construction (+34,000).  The number of quits was little changed in all 4 regions.
 
The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in June at 1,700,000.  The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1%.  The layoffs and discharges level was little changed for total private and for government.  The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in professional and business services (-89,000) as well as arts, entertainment, and recreation (-38,000), but increased in accommodation and food services (+74,000).  The layoffs and discharges level decreased in the Northeast region.
 
The number of other separations was little changed in June.  The other separations level edged up for total private (+43,000) and was little changed for government.  Other separations increased in other services (+18,000), accommodation and food services (+14,000), and information (+6,000).  The number of other separations was little changed in all 4 regions.
 
Net Change in Employment
 
Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle.  Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.  When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.  Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in June, hires totaled 69,400,000 and separations totaled 66,900,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,500,000.  These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
____________
 
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results for July 2019 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, September 10, 2019 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).
 
 

As we recruiters know, that 7,300,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.  So, those 7,300,000 published job openings now become a total of 36,500,000 published AND hidden job orders.

In August there were 6,044,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 6,044,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace continues to flourish!

Online Labor Demand Declined in July

August 5, 2019

*HWOL Index declined slightly in July, after remaining virtually flat in June

*Most occupations experienced small declines over the month

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index declined in July and now stands at 102.3 (July 2018=100), down from 103.5 in June.  The Index declined 0.1% from the prior month but is up 2.3% from a year ago.  

In the Midwest, Minnesota declined 1.6% and Ohio increased 1.2%.  In the Northeast, Pennsylvania fell 2.5% and New York declined 2.0%.  In the South, Texas fell 2.2% and South Carolina declined 2.1%.  In the West, Montana declined 2.7% and Oregon fell 2.1%.

The Professional occupational category experienced declines in Business and Financial Operations (-2.4%) and Legal (-1.3%). The Services/Production occupational category experienced declines in Protective Services (-4.7%), Personal Care and Services (-1.8%), and Production (-1.3%).

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index measures changes over time in advertised online job vacancies, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US.  The HWOL Data Series aggregates the total number of ads available by month from the HWOL universe of online job ads.  Ads in the HWOL universe are collected in real-time from over 28,000 different online job boards including traditional job boards, corporate boards, social media sites, and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board’s long-running Help Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which was publishe d for over 55 years and discontinued in July 2008), Help Wanted OnLine™ measures help wanted advertising, i.e. labor demand.  The HWOL Data Series began in May 2005 and was revised in December 2018 to reflect a new universe and methodology of online job advertisements and therefore cannot be used in conjunction with the pre-revised HWOL Data Series.  With the December 2018 release, The Conference Board released the experimental HWOL Index for the specific purpose of providing a robust time series for measuring changes in labor demand over time.  It improves upon the HWOL Data Series’ ability to assess local labor market trends by reducing volatility and non-economic noise and improving correlation with local labor market conditions.  Both the HWOL Data Series and the experimental HWOL Index begin in January 2012.

The next release is Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 10 AM.

U-6 Update

In August 2019 the regular unemployment rate remained at 3.7% and the broader U-6 measure rose .2% to 7.2%.

The above 7.2% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

Here is a look at the August U-6 numbers for the past 16 years:

August 2018                7.4%

August 2017                8.6%

August 2016                9.7%

August 2015                10.3%

August 2014                12.0%

August 2013                13.6%

August 2012                14.7%

August 2011                16.2%

August 2010                16.7%

August 2009                16.8%

August 2008                10.9%

August 2007                8.4%

August 2006                8.4%

August 2005                8.9%

August 2004                9.5%

August 2003                10.2%

The August 2019 BLS Analysis

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 130,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.  Employment in federal government rose, largely reflecting the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census.  Notable job gains also occurred in health care and financial activities, while mining lost jobs.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 15,000 from +193,000 to +178,000, and the change for July was revised down by 5,000 from +164,000 to +159,000.  With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 20,000 less than previously reported.  (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)  After revisions, job gains have averaged 156,000 per month over the last 3 months.

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On September 6th, 2019, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for August 2019 of 3.7% (actually, it is 3.687% down by .025% from 3.712% in July 2019.

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 6,044,000 (–down from the month before by 19,000—since August 2018 this number has decreased by 153,000) by the total civilian labor force of 163,922,000 (up by 571,000 from July 2019).  Since August 2018, our total civilian labor force has increased by 2,120,000 workers.

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total to 259,432,000.  This is an increase of 207,000 from last month’s increase of 188,000.  In one year, this population has increased by 1,366,000. For the last 3 years the Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016 & December 2018—by…)

Up from July 2019 by 207,000
Up from June 2019 by 188,000
Up from May 2019 by 176,000
Up from April 2019 by 168,000
Up from March 2019 by 156,000
Up from February 2019 by 145,000
Up from January 2019 by 153,000
Down from December 2018 by 649,000
Up from November 2018 by 180,000
Up from October 2018 by 194,000
Up from September 2018 by 224,000
Up from August 2018 by 224,000
Up from July 2018 by 223,000
Up from June 2018 by 201,000
Up from May 2018 by 188,000
Up from April 2018 by 182,000
Up from March 2018 by 175,000
Up from February 2018 by 163,000
Up from January 2018 by 154,000
Up from December 2017 by 671,000
Up from November 2017 by 160,000
Up from October 2017 by 183,000
Up from September 2017 by 204,000
Up from August 2017 by 205,000
Up from July 2017 by 206,000
Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000
Up from August 2016 by 237,000
Up from July 2016 by 234,000
Up from June 2016 by 223,000

This month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 163,922,000 (up from July by 571,000).

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 95,510,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—down by 364,000 from last month’s 95,874,000.  In one year, this NILF population has decreased by 754,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—rose .1% to 63.2%.  This is .8% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in August was 2.3% (this rate was .1% lower than last month’s 2.4%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in August was 2.1% (this rate was .1% lower than last month’s 2.2%).

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg! 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

 
 
On August 29th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the second quarter of 2019, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 3.1%.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.1%.  The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, private inventory investment, and residential investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE).  Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were unrevised.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

Updates to GDP

The percent change in real GDP in the second quarter was revised down 0.1 % from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting downward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, private inventory investment, and residential investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to PCE.

For the first quarter of 2019, revised tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program were incorporated into the estimates; the percent change in real GDI was unrevised at 3.2%.

 
Three Update Releases to GDP
 
BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  "Advance" estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available.
 

*          *          *

 
(GDP, Second Quarter 2019 “Third Estimate” will be released on 
September 26, 2019 @ 8:30AM EDT)
 
 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

There are five main sources of unemployment:

1.  Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall, and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

2.  Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

3.  Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

4.  Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

5.  Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

1.  Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a worker’s decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Currently, in 2019, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program.  One state (MT) offers more and ten states offer less.  Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less-desirable jobs.

2.  Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags the improvement in the GDP.

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

If you look at the past 19 years of unemployment in the August “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

August 2018                2.5%

August 2017                2.8%

August 2016                3.1%

August 2015                2.9%

August 2014                3.4%

August 2013                3.8%

August 2012                4.5%

August 2011                4.9%

August 2010                5.1%

August 2009                5.4%

August 2008                3.3%

August 2007                2.6%

August 2006                2.4%

August 2005                2.5%

August 2004                2.9%

August 2003                3.6%

August 2002                3.4%

August 2001                2.5%

August 2000                1.8%

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

August 2018                2.1%

August 2017                2.4%

August 2016                2.7%

August 2015                2.5%

August 2014                3.2%

August 2013                3.5%

August 2012                4.1%

August 2011                4.3%

August 2010                4.6%

August 2009                4.7%

August 2008                2.7%

August 2007                2.1%

August 2006                1.8%

August 2005                2.1%

August 2004                2.7%

August 2003                3.1%

August 2002                2.8%

August 2001                2.2%

August 2000                1.7%

The August 2019 rates for these two categories, 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively, are very low again this month and are at, or close to, the halcyon numbers we attained last year and in the 2000-2001- & 2006-2007-time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

Below are the numbers for the over 25-year old’s:

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.3% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7% 5.2% 6.3%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
5.4% 5.7% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 5.1% 5.7% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 5.8%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
5.7% 5.3% 5.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.1% 5.4%        

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 3.8%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6%        

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1%        

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%        

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3%        

Or employed…(,000)

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923 59,559 60,990 61,062 61,818 62,121
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
62,123 62,908 63,067 62,561 62,360 61,349 61,433 61,593 62,181 62,929 63,084 63,642
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
63,818 64,281 64,299 63,560 63,594 63,418 63,394 63,679        

And unemployed…(,000)

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656 1,731 1,463 1,285 1,266 1,290
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
1,374 1,301 1,310 1,134 1,083 1,575 1,539 1,591 1,299 1,246 1,330 1,368
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
1,607 1,317 1,289 1,040 1,086 1,540 1,591 1,476        

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579 61,290 62,453 62,347 63,084 63,411
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
63,497 64,209 64,377 63,695 63,443 62,924 62,972 63,184 63,480 64,175 64,414 65,010
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
65,425 65,598 65,588 64,600 64,680 64,958 64,985 65,155        

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9%        

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.7% 2.9% 2.6%        

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
4.5% 5.0% 4.6% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.8%