BLS Analysis for September 2019

Bob Marshall’s September 2019 BLS Analysis for Recruiters; 10/4/19

September BLS Preface

TBMG Coaching Updates and Product News:

 Booklets Offer, $20 each

Booklet #1

“Robocruiter and The Total Account Executive” – The Booklet

During the release of this weekly series to my distribution list, I had been asked if I would make available the complete 11-part series in one single booklet format for purchase.  The idea being that it could then be read and studied at your convenience and you wouldn’t have to deal with a computer to do that.  That booklet version is now available for purchase at $20.  So, if you are interested, send me $20 (via snail mail—TBMG, 247 Bryans Drive, McDonough, GA 30252—or PayPal); and I will send the hardcopy booklet to your designated mailing address.

Booklet #2

 “The Opportunity Cost in Not Quitting the Dead Horse Projects” – The Booklet

During the release of my first booklet, “Robocruiter and The Total Account Executive”, I was asked if I would also make available the current series, “The Opportunity Cost in Not Quitting the Dead Horse Projects”, in a similar single booklet format for purchase.  The idea being again that it could then be read and studied at your convenience and you wouldn’t have to deal with a computer to do that.  That booklet version, comprised of the complete 11-part series, is now available for purchase at $20.  So, if you are interested, send me $20 (via snail mail—TBMG, 247 Bryans Drive, McDonough, GA 30252—or PayPal); and I will send the hardcopy booklet to your designated mailing address.

“The JOB ORDER—A Six-Part Series”; October-November 2019

We began this series on October 1, 2019.  Here are the six topics and the release dates:

Tuesday, October 1 – Part One – The Qualifier Job Order

Tuesday, October 8 – Part Two – The Job Order Matrix (how to objectively score your JOs)

Tuesday, October 15 – Part Three – The Proper Hiring Manager Set-up

Tuesday, October 22 – Part Four – The Interview Sequencing

Tuesday, October 29 – Part Five – The Marketing Waterfall

Tuesday, November 5 – Part Six – The 11 Steps in Qualifying the JO as a Search Assignment

Norman Lieberman’s Resume Service, 949 707-4585

A longtime member of my distribution list, Norman Lieberman, MBA, who has successfully led his recruiting firm for 38 years has changed directions in a way that can help your candidates.  Recently, Norm won a battle with leukemia and is now focusing his energies toward revamping candidate resumes so that hiring managers sit up, take notice and move forward.  I have known Norm for many years now and can vouch for his intelligence and professionalism.  Should the need arise, consider giving him a shout out and discover how he can help your firm make more placements by being able to present stellar resumes that attract hiring managers to your candidates.

Norman’s phone number in California is 949 707-4585.

WHY A COACH?

In the opinion of ex-Dallas Cowboys football coach Tom Landry who coached from 1960-1988, “A coach is someone who tells you what you don’t want to hear, who has you see what you don’t want to see, so you can be who you have always known you could be.”

Is now the time to pick a Coach?

I realize that taking that first step to engage a Coach to help you reach a higher level of production is not as easy as it sounds.  After all, your training investment – and your time – are important and deserve every consideration.  I share your feelings.  I believe that how you approach your recruitment career matters…that you should get what you pay for, and then some…that you should enjoy your time with your Coach as you are benefiting from it…and that you should never settle for the ordinary.

So, for those of you who have been toying with the idea of working with a recruitment coach, now may be the time.  Only you can come to that decision point.

“Teachers open the door; but you must enter by yourself”—Chinese Proverb

When considering ‘individual change management’, consider this theosophical proverb: When the student is ready, the teacher will appear!”

“Bob Marshall is a speaker’s speaker and a trainer’s trainer.  He has a gift for taking the cornerstones of the business and compelling people and teams to not only hone their skills but to execute. We’ve had Bob engage our teams a number of times over the last few years and our groups always come away more focused on the core and more energized to perform. Come ready to learn because this man knows the business and will make you better!”

—David Alexander, President, Adecco & Soliant, January 2017

Preface

Many of you continue to correspond with me about these monthly BLS analyses and have asked if it is OK to use them in your presentations.  The answer is, of course, yes!  That is why I spend the time to assemble this information.  I would encourage any of you who have that desire to weave any of the information I have printed below into your presentations.  I write these analyses for the benefit of our recruitment industry in general and for the members of my distribution list in particular.  So use this info as you deem appropriate.

I also write these monthly BLS analyses to not only counterbalance the negative/incorrect press reporting of our general economic state but, more than that, to remind all of my recruitment readers that, at the level we work, there is no unemployment and so we must recruit to find the candidates our client companies so desperately need!

So, to my recruiter colleagues, get out there and do what your name implies…RECRUIT!  When your client companies have unique and difficult positions to fill, they need you.  When they are being picky, they need you.  When they are longing for more production from fewer employees, they need you.  Go fill those needs.  These should be the halcyon days in the recruitment arena!

Finally, always remember that we are not in an HR business, but in a ‘circumventing the time factor in the hiring sequence’ business—and adding value to our client companies.

Majority of Execs Don’t Foresee Recession in Near Term

Daily News, September 26, 2019

A majority of business leaders in the US and Canada don’t expect a recession in their countries in the near future, according to a poll by Express Employment Professionals.

Only 4% of business leaders expect a recession in the next 3 months, and only 14% expect one in the next 3-6 months.  And looking further out, only 31% expect a recession in 6 months to a year.

“We are not seeing signs of recession in our area,” said Ted Maksimowski, an Express franchise owner of 3 offices in Ontario.  “Consumer demand and spending is high, there is a lot of capital in the market, corporate profits continue to be positive and many of the major markets in Canada are at or near full employment.”

However, slightly more respondents in this survey expect a recession in 2 years, 41%, compared to a similar survey that took place last quarter.

“The people we talk to don’t see a recession any time soon,” Express CEO Bill Stoller said.  “There are some signs of an overall slowing of the economy — but a slowdown and a recession are two different things.  Right now, the job market is strong.  So, the most important thing is not to let our fears launch a recession.”

The survey included 802 business owners, decision makers and human resources professionals in the US and Canada.

IT Job Growth Underperforms, but Engineering Jobs Beat Overall Market

Daily News, September 23, 2019

The number of technology jobs in the US rose 0.08% year over year in August representing an additional 4,300 workers on a net basis, according to the TechServe Alliance, the national trade association of the IT and engineering staffing and solutions industry.

But while IT job growth ticked up, growth remains relatively slow, it reported.

“While ticking up slightly in August, IT employment growth continues to underperform growth (in terms) of the overall job market, said Mark Roberts, CEO of TechServe Alliance.  “Despite robust demand in many IT skillsets, the lack of qualified professionals has resulted in IT employment remaining essentially flat on a year-over-year basis.”

On the other hand, Roberts said engineering job growth is outperforming the overall job market.

Engineering employment increased by 2.04% year over year in August, representing 53,300 engineering workers, according to the organization.

Dick Morris: US Sees Big Jump in Personal Income

Western Journal, Dick Morris, September 16, 2019

Despite media reports that try to minimize our progress, household income in the United States has risen sharply since 2014.

Back then, inflation-adjusted median household income stood at $55,913.  In 2018, it was $63,179.

This $7,266 increase amounts to a 13% hike in income over the past 4 years.

Liberal and Democratic contentions that the Trump economy only benefits the wealthy fall flat in the face of the data.

Put this increase in incomes into perspective.

In the past 20 years, since 1999, median household income (adjusted for inflation) has risen by only 2.7%.

So over 20 years, it has risen by less than 3%.

But in the past 4years, it has risen by 13%!

A spectacular performance.

Bottom of Form

Trump’s policies are directly responsible for the increase:

– His tax cut has increased the money Americans have to spend and that corporations have to invest in growth.

– He has sliced Chinese imports to the U.S. by at least 10% since the tariffs started and negotiated good deals with South Korea, Japan, Canada, Mexico and the European Union.

– Up until the recent Yemeni/Iranian raid on Saudi oil production, Trump has been able to hold energy prices down by maximizing American production.

– His border enforcement policies are reducing the flow of cheap labor into our country and permitted a tighter labor market to force wages of low-income workers up.

– He has created more than 6,000,000 jobs since he took office.

Democrats are interested in painting as bleak a picture as possible of the Trump economy, but the statistics tell another — very exciting — story.

Employees Mostly Agree That Age Diversity Can Strength Workplaces, but 45% Say Policies Favor Millennials

Daily News, September 16, 2019

Despite media reports to the contrary, more than 90% of employees are satisfied with the diversity of age ranges in their workplace, according to a study released today by professional services firm Addison Group. Respondents agree that different ages in the workplace bring a variety of strengths within each generation.

The report, titled “Age Is Just a Number: The Truth Behind Generational Stereotypes at Work,” found 86% of employees agreed that their colleagues within their age ranges are respected in the workplace.  Further, 79% of respondents reported that they would take a job at a company where the makeup skewed older than them, and 75% would take a job at a company with a younger makeup.

While many companies offer trendy perks to appeal to what they think young talent wants, the research found all generations generally want the same things: good pay, work-life balance, and enjoying the work they do.  While trendy perks can elevate your work culture, the essentials bring in top talent, according to the report.

“If employers invest in generous compensation, a healthy work culture and an engaging work experience, they reap the payoff across all demographics of their workforce,” it stated.

However, 35% of respondents reported feeling that their workplace’s culture and processes favor one generation over others, with 45% reporting that it is mostly skewed toward millennials.  Still, respondents agree that different ages in the workplace brings a variety of strengths within each generation

“The age range of the current employment landscape is diverse as ever,” said Addison Group CEO Tom Moran.  “With baby boomers working later in life and Gen Z just entering the workforce, the four generations are being forced to work in one shared environment for the first time ever.  One might think that differences in work styles may clash, but the key to a harmonious workplace is understanding how each generation works together — their strengths, weaknesses and everything in between — and this report highlights just that.”

Addison Group surveyed 1,000 full and part-time employees in May 2019.

US Hiring Outlook Strong for Q4, Employers Remain Optimistic:  ManpowerGroup

Daily News, September 10, 2019

The US hiring outlook remains strong as employers are optimistic about hiring in the 4th quarter, according to the Employment Outlook Survey released today by ManpowerGroup.

It found that 22% of employers plan to increase hiring in the 4th quarter while 5% plan a decrease for a net employment outlook of 17%, or with seasonal adjustment, 20%.

That is down from a seasonally adjusted employment outlook of 21% for the 3rd quarter but up from 19% in the 2nd quarter.

“We’re still in a time of unprecedented opportunity for US workers as there are more open jobs than there are people actively seeking work,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManpowerGroup North America.  “While the global economic landscape is increasingly uncertain, employers still intend to hire across all industries.”

Among metropolitan areas, Columbus, Ohio, posted the highest seasonally adjusted net employment outlook at 31%. Richmond, Virginia, came in 2nd at 29%.

By industry, “leisure and hospitality” posted the highest seasonally adjusted net employment outlook at 27%.

ManpowerGroup’s report is based on a survey of 11,500 employers in the US.

The survey is part of a larger, global survey of more than 59,000 employers in 44 countries.  It found that employers in 43 of the countries plan to grow payrolls.

“Hiring plans for the next 3 months vary significantly globally, with robust Outlooks reported in many large markets while the uncertainty of Brexit and the impacts of tariffs contribute to evidence of softer hiring intentions elsewhere,” said Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup chairman and CEO.  “We are continuing to see employers planning to hire for technical and soft skills and committing to invest in their people with upskilling programs.”

Strongest hiring prospects were reported in Japan, Taiwan, the US, India and Greece, while the weakest hiring activity is expected in Spain, the Czech Republic, Argentina, Costa Rica and Switzerland.

Among the 1,930 Canadian employers surveyed, the seasonally adjusted net employment outlook of 12% in the 4th quarter report was unchanged from the 3rd quarter report.

In Mexico, the seasonally adjusted net employment outlook was 8% for the 4th quarter, down from 10% in the 3rd quarter report.

Employers are Hiring, but 80% say They Can’t Find Skilled Candidates

Valerie bolden-Barrett, HR Dive, September 4, 2019

Dive Brief:

*More than 82% of employers said they’re actively hiring, despite predictions of an economic downturn, according to a survey of 150 HR leaders by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.  80% of the respondents, however, reported having difficulty finding workers, with 70% identifying skills shortages as the reason.

*43% of Challenger’s respondents reported that, although they have enough applicants, those applicants do not have the needed skills.  Another 43% said they do not receive enough applicants, with 27% noting that candidates who do apply are not qualified.

*”The labor market remains tight and employers are reporting skills shortages in almost every area, including in STEM, data analytics, human resources, finance, and operations.  Job seekers have opportunities if they can make their cases to employers,” Andrew Challenger, VP of global outplacement and executive and business coaching, said in a media release. 

Dive Insight:

Demand for workers with tech skills continues to grow and the search for tech talent keeps getting tougher, according to research. 

An Indeed study found that employers need tech skills in marketing, finance, sales and other departments.  However, the skills shortage is more severe in the tech industry.  According to a survey from Modis and General Assembly, 80% of decision-makers acknowledged a tech talent gap in their industry.  Nonetheless, 67% of them said they intend to increase staffing in the coming year.  The number of decision-makers who planned to raise headcounts decreased from 79% in 2018 — possibly an indication that confidence in hiring could be slipping in anticipation of a possible economic downturn or in response to skills shortages.

“Emerging technologies and automation are infiltrating nearly every industry.  Employers need workers who are somewhat familiar with adapting to and working with new technology,” said Challenger in the release.  “The job openings exist. It is up to job seekers to be able to market themselves in a way that appeals to hiring authorities.  That may mean clearly outlining skills and accomplishments, earning certifications tangential to your current position, or learning new skills entirely, whether that means taking classes in coding, business administration, or financial technology.”

Applicants may or may not be able to learn new skills or certifications while hunting for jobs.  Whether it’s in industries that are more susceptible to automation, like manufacturing and grocery, or sectors with continuously evolving best practices, like tech, training new hires who are eager to learn the skills needed to fill jobs could be the first step to closing the skills gap that continues to challenge employers.

The new ADP/Moody’s National Employment Report: 51% of all new job growth in September 2019 came from Small and Medium-size Companies!

October 2, 2019

Private sector employment increased by 136,000 jobs from August to September (a 21,000 job decrease from August’s downwardly ‘revised’ 157,000*), according to the September ADP National Employment Report®.  *The August total of jobs added was revised down from 195,000 to 157,000.

This report is produced by ADP® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.  The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report® was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24,000,000 workers in the U.S.

By Company Size

Small businesses:                  30,000

1-19 employees                        4,000

20-49 employees                    25,000

Medium businesses:             39,000

50-499 employees                  39,000

Large businesses:                 67,000

500-999 employees                 15,000

1,000+ employees                   52,000

By Sector

I.  Goods-producing:                                 8,000

A.  Natural resources/mining                     <-3,000>

B.  Construction                                              9,000

C.  Manufacturing                                           2,000

II.  Service-providing:                            127,000

A.  Trade/transportation/utilities                    28,000

B.  Information                                                5,000

C.  Financial activities                                                 8,000

D.  Professional/business services                 20,000

                        1.  Professional/technical services                                8,000

                        2.  Management of companies/enterprises                     3,000

                        3.  Administrative/support services                               9,000

            E.  Education/health services                         42,000

                        1.  Health care/social assistance                                  35,000

                        2.  Education                                                                  7,000

            F.  Leisure/hospitality                                     18,000

            G.  Other services                                              5,000

Franchise Employment

Franchise Jobs                        5,800

“The job market has shown signs of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.  “The average monthly job growth for the past three months is 145,000, down from 214,000 for the same time period last year.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Businesses have turned more cautious in their hiring.  Small businesses have become especially hesitant.  If businesses pull back any further, unemployment will begin to rise.”

(The October 2019 ADP National Employment Report will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET on October 30, 2019.)

Due to the important contribution that small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with 49 or fewer employees is reported each month in the ADP Small Business Report®, a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.

September 2019 Small Business Report Highlights

Total Small Business Employment:             30,000 (a 36,000 decrease)

●By Size    
►1-19 employees       4,000
►20-49 employees   25,000
     
●By Sector for 1-49 Employees    
►Goods Producing   2,000
►Service Producing   27,000
     
●By Sector for 1-19 Employees    
►Goods Producing   0
►Service Producing   4,000
     
●By Sector for 20-49 Employees    
►Goods Producing   2,000
►Service Producing   23,000

Bottom-line:  To my audience of recruiters, always remember this:  Our ‘bread and butter’, especially on the contingency side of the house, has historically been, and continues to be, small and medium-sized client companies.  Along with the large companies, these companies need to be in included in your niche!

Job Openings and Labor Turnover – July 2019

September 10, 2019

 
The number of job openings was little changed at 7,200,000 on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Over the month, hires edged up to 6,000,000 and separations increased to 5,800,000 million.  Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.4% and 1.2%, respectively.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by 4 geographic regions.
 
Job Openings
 
On the last business day of July, the job openings level was little changed at 7,200,000. The job openings rate was 4.5%.  The number of job openings was little changed for total private and for government.  The job openings level decreased in wholesale trade 
(-55,000) and in federal government (-11,000).  The job openings level increased in information (+42,000) and in mining and logging (+11,000).  The number of job openings was little changed in all 4 regions.
 
Hires
 
The number of hires edged up to 6,000,000 (+237,000) in July.  The hires rate was 3.9%. The number of hires edged up for total private (+219,000) and was little changed for government.  The hires level was little changed in all industries.  The number of hires was little changed in all 4 regions.
 
Separations
 
Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.  Total separations is referred to as turnover.  Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.  Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.  Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.  Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
 
The number of total separations rose to 5,800,000 (+246,000) in July.  The total separations rate was 3.8%.  The number of total separations increased for total private (+245,000) and was little changed for government.  The total separations level increased in professional and business services (+98,000), transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+42,000), and information (+21,000).  The number of total separations increased in the West region.
 
The number of quits edged up to a series high in July of 3,600,000 (+130,000).  The quits rate was 2.4%.  The quits level edged up for total private (+127,000) and was little changed for government.   Quits increased in health care and social assistance (+54,000) and in federal government (+3,000).  The number of quits rose in the Midwest region. 
 
The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed in July at 1,800,000.  The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2%.  The layoffs and discharges level was little changed for total private and for government.  The number of layoffs and discharges increased in information (+20,000).  The layoffs and discharges level increased in the West region.
 
The number of other separations was little changed in July.  The other separations level was also little changed for total private and for government.  Other separations decreased in accommodation and food services (-13,000) but increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+11,000).  The number of other separations was little changed in all 4 regions.
 
Net Change in Employment
 
Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle.  Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations.  When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.  Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.  Over the 12 months ending in July, hires totaled 69,600,000 and separations totaled 67,000,000, yielding a net employment gain of 2,600,000.  These totals include 
workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
____________
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for August 2019 are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, October 9, 2019 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).
 
 

As we recruiters know, that 7,200,000 number only represents 20% of the jobs currently available in the marketplace.  The other 80% of job openings are unpublished and are filled through networking or word of mouth or by using a RECRUITER.  So, those 7,200,000 published job openings now become a total of 36,000,000 published AND hidden job orders.

In September, there were 5,769,000 unemployed workers.  What was the main reason why those workers were unemployed?  Two Words:  Structural Unemployment.  If we can’t figure out how to educate and/or reeducate those 5,769,000 unemployed, then they will keep reappearing each month as a BLS unemployment statistic—as they have.  In the meantime, our recruitment marketplace continues to flourish!

Online Labor Demand Rose in August

September 11, 2019

*HWOL Index rose slightly in August, following a slight decline in July

*Regions and States show little change.

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in August and now stands at 103.6 (July 2018=100), up from 103.2 in July.  The Index declined 1.2% from the prior month but is up 3.5% from a year ago.  

In the Midwest, Iowa increased 2.9% and Ohio increased 2.5%.  In the Northeast, Maine grew 3.3% and Connecticut increased 2.3%.  In the South, Kentucky grew 3.0% and Texas increased 1.1%.  In the West, Wyoming grew 2.6% and Nevada increased 2.0%.

The Professional occupational category experienced declines in Legal (-3.1%) and Education (-1.1%).  The Services/Production occupational category showed increases in Protective Services (4.9%), Personal Care and Services (2.5%), and Sales (2.5%).

The Professional occupational category experienced declines in Business and Financial Operations (-2.4%) and Legal (-1.3%).  The Services/Production occupational category experienced declines in Protective Services (-4.7%), Personal Care and Services (-1.8%), and Production (-1.3%).

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index measures changes over time in advertised online job vacancies, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US.  The HWOL Data Series aggregates the total number of ads available by month from the HWOL universe of online job ads.  Ads in the HWOL universe are collected in real-time from over 28,000 different online job boards including traditional job boards, corporate boards, social media sites, and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board’s long-running Help Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which was publishe d for over 55 years and discontinued in July 2008), Help Wanted OnLine™ measures help wanted advertising, i.e. labor demand.  The HWOL Data Series began in May 2005 and was revised in December 2018 to reflect a new universe and methodology of online job advertisements and therefore cannot be used in conjunction with the pre-revised HWOL Data Series.  With the December 2018 release, The Conference Board released the experimental HWOL Index for the specific purpose of providing a robust time series for measuring changes in labor demand over time.  It improves upon the HWOL Data Series’ ability to assess local labor market trends by reducing volatility and non-economic noise and improving correlation with local labor market conditions.  Both the HWOL Data Series and the experimental HWOL Index begin in January 2012.

The next release is Wednesday, October 9, 2019 at 10 AM.

U-6 Update

In September 2019 the regular unemployment rate dropped by .2% to 3.5% and the broader U-6 measure dropped .3% to 6.9%.

The above 6.9% is referred to as the U-6 unemployment rate (found in the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary, Table A-15; Table A-12 in 2008 and before).  It counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts “marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.”  Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week.  And the “marginally attached workers” include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.  The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

Here is a look at the September U-6 numbers for the previous 16 years:

September 2018                      7.5%

September 2017                      8.3%

September 2016                      9.7%

September 2015                      10.0%

September 2014                      11.7%

September 2013                      13.6%

September 2012                      14.7%

September 2011                      16.4%

September 2010                      17.1%

September 2009                      17.0%

September 2008                      11.2%

September 2007                      8.4%

September 2006                      8.0%

September 2005                      9.0%

September 2004                      9.4%

September 2003                      10.4%

The September 2019 BLS Analysis

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.5%.  Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up.

In September, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2% to 3.5%.  The last time the rate was this low was in December 1969, when it also was 3.5%.  Ove the month, the number of unemployed persons decreased by 275,000 to 5,800,000.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 7,000 from +159,000 to +166,000, and the change for August was revised up by 38,000 from +130,000 to +168,000.  With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 45,000 more than previously reported.  (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)  After revisions, job gains have averaged 157,000 per month over the last 3 months.

The unemployment rate is also published by the BLS.  That rate is found by dividing the number of unemployed by the total civilian labor force.  On October 4th, 2019, the BLS published the most recent unemployment rate for September 2019 of 3.5% (actually, it is 3.517% down by .170% from 3.687% in August 2019.

The unemployment rate was determined by dividing the unemployed of 5,769,000 (–down from the month before by 275,000—since September 2018 this number has decreased by 217,000) by the total civilian labor force of 164,039,000 (up by 117,000 from August 2019).  Since September 2018, our total civilian labor force has increased by 1,984,000 workers.

(The continuing ‘Strange BLS Math’ saga—after a detour in December 2016 when the BLS {for the first time in years} DECREASED the total Civilian Noninstitutional Population—this month the BLS again increased this total to 259,638,000.  This is an increase of 206,000 from last month’s increase of 207,000.  In one year, this population has increased by 1,348,000. For the last 3 years the Civilian Noninstitutional Population has increased each month—except in December 2016 & December 2018—by…)

Up from August 2019 by 206,000
Up from July 2019 by 207,000
Up from June 2019 by 188,000
Up from May 2019 by 176,000
Up from April 2019 by 168,000
Up from March 2019 by 156,000
Up from February 2019 by 145,000
Up from January 2019 by 153,000
Down from December 2018 by 649,000
Up from November 2018 by 180,000
Up from October 2018 by 194,000
Up from September 2018 by 224,000
Up from August 2018 by 224,000
Up from July 2018 by 223,000
Up from June 2018 by 201,000
Up from May 2018 by 188,000
Up from April 2018 by 182,000
Up from March 2018 by 175,000
Up from February 2018 by 163,000
Up from January 2018 by 154,000
Up from December 2017 by 671,000
Up from November 2017 by 160,000
Up from October 2017 by 183,000
Up from September 2017 by 204,000
Up from August 2017 by 205,000
Up from July 2017 by 206,000
Up from June 2017 by 194,000
Up from May 2017 by 173,000
Up from April 2017 by 179,000
Up from March 2017 by 174,000
Up from February 2017 by 168,000
Up from January 2017 by 164,000
Down from December 2016 by 660,000
Up from November 2016 by 202,000
Up from October 2016 by 219,000
Up from September 2016 by 230,000
Up from August 2016 by 237,000

This month the BLS has increased the Civilian Labor Force to 164,039,000 (up from August by 117,000).

Subtract the second number (‘civilian labor force’) from the first number (‘civilian noninstitutional population’) and you get 95,599,000 ‘Not in Labor Force’—up by 89,000 from last month’s 95,510,000.  In one year, this NILF population has decreased by 636,000.  The government tells us that most of these NILFs got discouraged and just gave up looking for a job.  My monthly recurring question is: “If that is the case, how do they survive when they don’t earn any money because they don’t have a job?  Are they ALL relying on the government to support them??”

This month, our Employment Participation Rate—the population 16 years and older working or seeking work—remained at 63.2%.  This is .8% above the historically low rate of 62.4% recorded in September 2015—and, before that, the rate recorded in October 1977—9 months into Jimmy Carter’s presidency—almost 40 years ago!

Final take on these numbers:  Fewer people looking for work will always bring down the unemployment rate.

Anyway, back to the point I am trying to make.  On the surface, these new unemployment rates are scary, but let’s look a little deeper and consider some other numbers.

The unemployment rate includes all types of workers—construction workers, government workers, etc.  We recruiters, on the other hand, mainly place management, professional and related types of workers.  That unemployment rate in September was 1.9% (this rate was .4% lower than last month’s 2.3%).  Or, you can look at it another way.  We usually place people who have college degrees.  That unemployment rate in September was 2.0% (this rate was .1% lower than last month’s 2.1%).

Now stay with me a little longer.  This gets better.  It’s important to understand (and none of the pundits mention this) that the unemployment rate, for many reasons, will never be 0%, no matter how good the economy is.  Without boring you any more than I have already, let me add here that Milton Friedman (the renowned Nobel Prize-winning economist), is famous for the theory of the “natural rate of unemployment” (or the term he preferred, NAIRU, which is the acronym for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment).  Basically, this theory states that full employment presupposes an ‘unavoidable and acceptable’ unemployment rate of somewhere between 4-6% with it.  Economists often settle on 5%, although the “New Normal Unemployment Rate” has been suggested to fall at 6.7%.

Nevertheless (if you will allow me to apply a ‘macro’ concept to a ‘micro’ issue), if this rate is applied to our main category of Management, Professional and Related types of potential recruits, and/or our other main category of College-Degreed potential recruits, we are well below the 4-6% threshold for full employment…we find no unemployment!  None!  Zilch!  A Big Goose Egg! 

THE IMPORTANCE OF GDP

“The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort.  The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor…Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production.  In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary by-product.  But production is the end, employment merely the means.  We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment.  But we can very easily have full employment without full production.”

–Economics in One Lesson, by Henry Hazlitt, Chapter X, “The Fetish of Full Employment”

 
On September 26th, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the real gross domestic product (GDP) -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the second quarter of 2019, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 3.1%.

This GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.0%.  Downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment were primarily offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and exports.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment.

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

Updates to GDP

The second-quarter percent change in real GDP was the same as previously estimated. Downward revisions to PCE and nonresidential fixed investment were primarily offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and exports, and a downward revision to imports.

 
Three Update Releases to GDP
 
BEA releases 3 vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  "Advance" estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available.
 

*          *          *

 
(GDP, Third Quarter 2019 “Advance Estimate” will be released on 
October 30, 2019 @ 8:30AM EDT)
 
 

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT EVER TO BE ZERO

‘Unemployment’ is an emotional ‘trigger’ word…a ‘third rail’, if you will.  It conjures up negative thoughts.  But it is important to realize that, while we want everyone who wants a job to have the opportunity to work, unemployment can never be zero and, in fact, can be disruptive to an economy if it gets too close to zero.  Very low unemployment can actually hurt the economy by creating an upward pressure on wages which invariably leads to higher production costs and prices.  This can lead to inflation.  The lowest the unemployment rate has been in the US was 2.5%.  That was in May and June 1953 when the economy overheated due to the Korean War.  When this bubble burst, it kicked off the Recession of 1953.  A healthy economy will always include some percentage of unemployment.

There are five main sources of unemployment:

1.  Cyclical (or demand-deficient) unemployment – This type of unemployment fluctuates with the business cycle.  It rises during a recession and falls during the subsequent recovery.  Workers who are most affected by this type of unemployment are laid off during a recession when production volumes fall, and companies use lay-offs as the easiest way to reduce costs.  These workers are usually rehired, some months later, when the economy improves.

2.  Frictional unemployment – This comes from the normal turnover in the labor force.  This is where new workers are entering the workforce and older workers are retiring and leaving vacancies to be filled by the new workers or those re-entering the workforce.  This category includes workers who are between jobs.

3.  Structural unemployment – This happens when the skills possessed by the unemployed worker don’t match the requirements of the opening—whether those be in characteristics and skills or in location.  This can come from new technology or foreign competition (e.g., foreign outsourcing).  This type of unemployment usually lasts longer than frictional unemployment because retraining, and sometimes relocation, is involved.  Occasionally jobs in this category can just disappear overseas.

4.  Seasonal unemployment – This happens when the workforce is affected by the climate or time of year.  Construction workers and agricultural workers aren’t needed as much during the winter season because of the inclement weather.  On the other hand, retail workers experience an increase in hiring shortly before, and during, the holiday season, but can be laid off shortly thereafter.

5.  Surplus unemployment – This is caused by minimum wage laws and unions.  When wages are set at a higher level, unemployment can often result.  Why?  To keep within the same payroll budget, the company must let go of some workers to pay the remaining workers a higher salary.

Other factors influencing the unemployment rate:

1.  Length of unemployment – Some studies indicate that an important factor influencing a worker’s decision to accept a new job is directly related to the length of the unemployment benefit they are receiving.  Currently, in 2019, workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program.  One state (MT) offers more and ten states offer less.  Studies suggest that additional weeks of benefits reduce the incentive of the unemployed to seek and accept less-desirable jobs.

2.  Changes in GDP – Since hiring workers takes time, the improvement in the unemployment rate usually lags the improvement in the GDP.

WHERE RECRUITERS PLACE

Now back to the issue at hand, namely the recruiting, and placing, of professionals and those with college degrees.

If you look at the past 19 years of unemployment in the September “management, professional and related” types of worker category, you will find the following rates:

September 2018                      2.0%

September 2017                      2.3%

September 2016                      2.7%

September 2015                      2.4%

September 2014                      2.8%

September 2013                      3.5%

September 2012                      3.9%

September 2011                      4.4%

September 2010                      4.4%

September 2009                      5.2%

September 2008                      2.8%

September 2007                      2.1%

September 2006                      2.1%

September 2005                      2.3%

September 2004                      2.5%

September 2003                      3.2%

September 2002                      3.3%

September 2001                      2.4%

September 2000                      1.8%

Here are the rates, during those same time periods, for “college-degreed” workers:

September 2018                      2.0%

September 2017                      2.2%

September 2016                      2.5%

September 2015                      2.5%

September 2014                      2.9%

September 2013                      3.7%

September 2012                      4.0%

September 2011                      4.2%

September 2010                      4.5%

September 2009                      4.8%

September 2008                      2.6%

September 2007                      2.0%

September 2006                      2.0%

September 2005                      2.3%

September 2004                      2.6%

September 2003                      3.2%

September 2002                      2.9%

September 2001                      2.5%

September 2000                      1.9%

The September 2019 rates for these two categories, 1.9% and 2.0%, respectively, are very low again this month and are at, or close to, the halcyon numbers we attained in 2017-2018 and in the 2000-2001- & 2006-2007-time frames.  But regardless, these unemployment numbers usually include a good number of job hoppers, job shoppers and rejects.  We, on the other hand, are engaged by our client companies to find those candidates who are happy, well-appreciated, making good money and currently working and we entice them to move for even better opportunities—especially where new technologies are expanding.  This will never change.  And that is why, no matter the overall unemployment rate, we still need to MARKET to find the best possible job orders to work and we still need to RECRUIT to find the best possible candidates for those Job Orders.

Below are the numbers for the over 25-year old’s:

Less than H.S. diploma – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.0% 15.3%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
15.2% 15.6% 14.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.0% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
14.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.3% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 13.8% 13.2% 13.8%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
12.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.8% 9.8%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.5% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
7.3% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7% 5.2% 6.3%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
5.4% 5.7% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 5.1% 5.7% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 5.8%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
5.7% 5.3% 5.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.1% 5.4% 4.8%      

H.S. Grad; no college – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
8.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.8% 8.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 3.8%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%      

Some College; or AA/AS – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
8.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9%      

BS/BS + – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%      

Management, Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9%      

Or employed…(,000)

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
52,165 52,498 52,681 52,819 52,544 52,735 52,655 52,626 53,104 53,485 53,274 52,548
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
52,358 52,196 52,345 52,597 52,256 51,776 51,810 51,724 52,186 52,981 52,263 52,131
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
52,159 52,324 52,163 52,355 51,839 51,414 50,974 50,879 51,757 51,818 52,263 51,704
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
51,866 52,557 53,243 53,216 52,778 52,120 51,662 51,997 52,665 52,864 52,787 52,808
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
53,152 53,208 53,771 54,055 54,156 53,846 53,165 53,696 54,655 55,223 54,951 54,635
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
54,214 54,563 54,721 54,767 54,740 54,323 54,064 54,515 55,013 55,155 55,583 54,880
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
55,096 55,501 56,036 55,896 56,202 55,714 55,381 55,646 56,365 56,759 57,110 56,888
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
57,367 57,596 57,805 57,953 58,155 57,710 57,392 57,288 58,105 58,456 58,667 59,030
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
59,014 59,583 60,080 59,690 59,613 59,181 58,434 58,526 59,599 59,766 59,707 60,069
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
59,921 61,064 61,156 61,317 61,174 60,705 59,923 59,559 60,990 61,062 61,818 62,121
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
62,123 62,908 63,067 62,561 62,360 61,349 61,433 61,593 62,181 62,929 63,084 63,642
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
63,818 64,281 64,299 63,560 63,594 63,418 63,394 63,679 64,343      

And unemployed…(,000)

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
1,164 1,159 1,121 1,088 1,407 1,478 1,585 1,779 1,539 1,647 1,786 1,802
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
2,238 2,137 2,292 2,164 2,373 2,720 3,034 2,925 2,859 2,593 2,530 2,509
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
2,762 2,637 2,600 2,464 2,450 2,644 2,687 2,762 2,381 2,417 2,525 2,468
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
2,557 2,435 2,381 2,196 2,419 2,598 2,742 2,671 2,450 2,410 2,336 2,303
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
2,410 2,336 2,330 2,062 2,275 2,472 2,666 2,556 2,245 2,170 2,077 2,221
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
2,211 2,164 2,020 1,980 1,990 2,358 2,286 2,130 1,978 1,930 1,749 1,637
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
1,784 1,845 1,890 1,642 1,795 2,001 2,011 1,930 1,617 1,582 1,656 1,568
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
1,741 1,601 1,398 1,435 1,460 1,714 1,807 1,686 1,414 1,312 1,276 1,208
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
1,404 1,456 1,477 1,251 1,305 1,712 1,782 1,869 1,652 1,506 1,382 1,361
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
1,425 1,313 1,265 1,254 1,208 1,440 1,656 1,731 1,463 1,285 1,266 1,290
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
1,374 1,301 1,310 1,134 1,083 1,575 1,539 1,591 1,299 1,246 1,330 1,368
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
1,607 1,317 1,289 1,040 1,086 1,540 1,591 1,476 1,235      

For a total Management, Professional & Related workforce of…(,000)

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
53,329 53,657 53,802 53,907 53,951 54,213 54,240 54,405 54,643 55,132 55,060 54,350
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
54,596 54,333 54,637 54,761 54,629 54,496 54,844 54,649 55,045 55,574 54,793 54,640
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
54,921 54,961 54,763 54,819 54,289 54,058 53,661 53,641 54,138 54,235 54,788 54,172
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
54,423 54,992 55,624 55,412 55,197 54,718 54,404 54,668 55,115 55,274 55,123 55,111
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
55,562 55,544 56,101 56,117 56,431 56,318 55,831 56,252 56,900 57,393 57,028 56,856
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
56,425 56,727 56,741 56,747 56,730 56,681 56,350 56,645 56,991 57,085 57,332 56,517
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
56,880 57,346 57,926 57,538 57,997 57,715 57,392 57,576 57,982 58,341 58,766 58,456
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
59,108 59,197 59,203 59,388 59,615 59,424 59,199 58,974 59,519 59,768 59,943 60,238
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
60,418 61,039 61,557 60,941 60,918 60,893 60,216 60,395 61,251 61,272 61,089 61,430
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
61,346 62,377 62,421 62,571 62,382 62,145 61,579 61,290 62,453 62,347 63,084 63,411
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
63,497 64,209 64,377 63,695 63,443 62,924 62,972 63,184 63,480 64,175 64,414 65,010
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
65,425 65,598 65,588 64,600 64,680 64,958 64,985 65,155 65,578      

Management, Business and Financial Operations – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.1%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6%      

Professional & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 2.1%      

Sales & Related – Unemployment Rate

1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08
5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 11/09 12/09
7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10
10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.8% 8.3%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
9.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.7%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12
8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0%
1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13
8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.3%
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14
7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%
1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15
5.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3%
1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 12/16
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
5.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8%
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6%
1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19
4.5% 5.0% 4.6% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.8% 3.6%